Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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BRING BACK PALOMA
yeah, lets bring back polio and boy george while we're at it. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 29 2005 10:51 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Using the long range radar loop out of Puerto Rico 92L appears to be trying to develop a center south of St. Croix... it has SE, E and NE motion to the rain pattern but not discernable W component yet, but that could develop at any moment...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_N0Z_lp.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Paloma... hehe, now those were the good old days...
Steve, interesting to see if we get any home grown stuff late in the weekend... the atmoshere in the area is quite charged the past two days as we've been getting pummeled with some pretty good thunderstorms...
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Dawn
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St. Petersburg FL
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I also use the for the final word. I just worry about the hobby taken to the point that people believe and not know who the people are that have the smarts to post something we can look at or trust their thoughts.
I depend on this site to keep my sanity(sp) and to teach me.
I am sorry I started this-it is now over!
Dawn
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
Using the long range radar loop out of Puerto Rico 92L appears to be trying to develop a center south of St. Croix... it has SE, E and NE motion to the rain pattern but not discernable W component yet, but that could develop at any moment...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_N0Z_lp.html
Does it really look like it trying to wrap around? Looks like it to me. But I am still unexperienced.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Paloma... hehe, now those were the good old days...
Glad someone remembered. He's around on other forums and has improved quite a bit in coherence (most of the time)...
>>Steve, interesting to see if we get any home grown stuff late in the weekend... the atmoshere in the area is quite charged the past two days as we've been getting pummeled with some pretty good thunderstorms...
We didn't see anything today but yesterday evening it was booming by my house. Maybe I need to go look at the radar to see if something's cooking for later today.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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study the loop and you can see it trying to wrap around... I'm not sure at what levels this is occurring ... it could the either be at the low or mid levels... I have not checked out the sat loops to see if I could verify... ..... you can see it wrapping from the S, SE, E, NE and a touch of N... but still NO NORTHWEST or WEST rain bands.... you start seeing some type of west component then this thing could become a depression...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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another point, and I'm not saying 92L will develop but if it does, and at this particular location SE of St.Croix, none of the model runs would be correct because none ever had it at this particular location... its also heading for the Dominican Republic, which is not a place a struggling TC wants to visit because of its high mountains...
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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Yes Frank, I hope the Dominican rips it apart! 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looking at the latest recon reports show a pressure found so far of 1013mb, at 17.7N and 64.0W. With a southeast wind 21 knots.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Quote:
Looking at the latest recon reports show a pressure found so far of 1013mb, at 17.7N and 64.0W. With a southeast wind 21 knots.
Would that be enough for a depression? I'm not keen at converting KTS into MPH. Is a depression 30mph?
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Frank P
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that plot is about 65-70 miles ENE of the radar center that I've been tracking
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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As of 4:57 pm 16.5N, 64.2W, wind east wind 5 knots, pressure 1013mb. I am really not sure there going to find a closed low. Maybe a broad low, we shall see...
The 21knot wind speed is equal to about 24 mph.
5:06pm, 16.3N, 65.4W, east wind 5 knots, pressure 1013mb, LARGE CELL JUST NORTH OF FLIGHT TRACK
Edited by Joe (Fri Jul 29 2005 09:25 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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No cigar yet still not a TD maybe late tonight or Tomorrow just a strong Wave as of 5:30PM...................
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Per the at 5:00
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW.
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Frank P
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for all the newbies to the site, one could monitor the PR radar loops tonight and perhaps see the evolution of a TD via the radar presentation, if it even comes to fruition... if so, and it continues to develop I would expect the models to shift perhaps more to the left and the potential impact to Southern Florida a real possibility, including as far south as the Keys... prematurely speculating on my part.... 
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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I think recon found a wind from 200 degrees at 17.2/64.0, so (assuming I'm reading this correctly) an LLC may be in the process of forming, or a weak one may have formed:
URNT11 KNHC 292056 97779 20304 60172 64000 04100 20012 24208 /0013 41815 RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 13
Is 17.2/64.0 in the vicinity of the possible center you were tracking, Frank?
Edited by Brad in Miami (Fri Jul 29 2005 09:28 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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I agree with you there is this does hit the Dominican Republic.... those mountians will take the wind of that system..........
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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I disagree with the idea of mountains of DR/Haiti having any effect where there is no closed low-level circulation. If there isn't one, then there isn't one that can be destroyed or interrupted by the mountains. JMO but it would require a TD, TS, or H to be affected below 10,000 feet. The wave will march on unless it's closed off by that time.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Steve:
I think we assume that it would be a TD or TS by the time it reaches mountains of DR/Haiti , if not then you are right a wave would not be effect by the mountians,
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