Frank P
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Brad, the broad center I was tracking was around ~17.2 and 65 and that would have been east of the center, so if it were a west wind that would confirm some type of closed low, albeit quit broad in nature...
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Brad in Miami
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Yeah, that makes it appear there is a closed low. But presumably too broad, and/or without enough sustained convection near the center, to be classified. Good call on the center you were tracking; appears to be the one recon found.
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Frank P
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Looking at the radar loop it going to be close as to if it goes right over the island or perhaps stays just south...... per the it could gain TD status as early as tonight, in which case the interaction with the DR is certainly not going to allow it to develop too much during the interaction
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Frank P
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thanks Brad, the really interesting thing I find about this broad area of low pressure is that it is absolutely nowhere near any of the models plots that have been run... could get interesting for south Florida if 92 L can get its act together.......
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Hey guys,
i think this system has a good shot at development of some sort, and i am aliitle surprised we havents seen a SPecial Tropical Disturbance Statement yet. Givent he radar and satellite imagery, it would appear that if it does develop it will be initially poorly organised and will take a while to consolidate.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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RyanRedCross1
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi RichB... greetings from the SE Coast of Florida. I am so glad to see that this thing has not gotten its act together today-- or may i be wrong? I like to think time is on our side! 
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Ryan
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i think we may see a S FL landfall but im not sure it has the potential of becoming a hurricane so im think a TS by the time it reaches south flrorida..a lot of the models have it going thru a lot or islands before reaching florida. So i mean this thing wont have much space for developement it looks like.
The spaghetti model plots have it going thru DR/HAITI then going thru many or the "Bahaman" islands..so as time goes on, i think the possibility or a hurricane weakens..what do others think?
Edit -- the link you provided is to someone's mirror of subscriber (i.e. for-pay) content off of another website. I don't think the people who run Hurricane Alley would be too appreciative of their data being posted elsewhere for free; it also violates copyright laws. It's one thing to mirror something freely available or with permission; it's another to do it without permission and of something not freely available. Please use the freely available images (accessible on the front page of this site) in the future...thanks! --Clark
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 29 2005 11:08 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
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I believe 'spacing' is not an issue. The water temp is warm enough to cause a rapid growth spurt. It may be too early to even assume that this could grow in our own backyard.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ryan
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treu, i mean its awfully close to becoming something to worry about, and we still have not even a TD so i mean if there is a growth spurt, it will most likely be a growth spurt into a strong TS
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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damejune2
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Lets say that 92L does get it's act together and heads towards south florida...what kind of conditions do you think we may be looking at once it arrives? Is there enough time for this thing to grow into a major storm, or are we looking at a TS, perhaps minimal cat 1??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
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If something does form, i hope it does now because the mountains of Haiti and DR will tear it apart....if nothing forms, then all you have is some squally stuff going over mountains - not going to do anything to it.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Ron Basso
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Quote:
Lets say that 92L does get it's act together and heads towards south florida...what kind of conditions do you think we may be looking at once it arrives? Is there enough time for this thing to grow into a major storm, or are we looking at a TS, perhaps minimal cat 1??
Too soon to say..looks likely it will develop though. I would expect rapid intensification once the system clears the island of Hispanola..if it stays north of Cuba..warm SSTs..upper level winds become more favorable..although none of the models really have a good handle on it..even the keeps it a weak system..but we all know these models aren't real good at intensity..& I agree LI Phil..the location further south then earlier models puts S FL (& keys) at greater risk..as well as the SW FL coast
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RJB
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LI Phil
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Quote:
[I agree LI Phil..the location further south then earlier models puts S FL (& keys) at greater risk..as well as the SW FL coast
wtf? i didn't say that...please don't confuse me with ryan
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
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wtf? "what the frank".. .... hehe........
radar presentation on 92L this evening from Puerto Rico not quite as good as late this afternoon's presentation as the center or what appears to be the center south of the very eastern part of PR..
Edited by Frank P (Sat Jul 30 2005 12:04 AM)
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Rasvar
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It is too soon to say that 92L will affect Florida. However, hypothetically, I think history has shown that rapid intensification is possible in that area. Not sure if the atmospheric dynamics will support explosive intensification there, though. I think the SST's would allow it, though.
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Jim
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danielw
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wtf? Is the abbreviation for World Turf Football.
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danielw
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Quote:
It is too soon to say that 92L will affect Florida. However, hypothetically, I think history has shown that rapid intensification is possible in that area. Not sure if the atmospheric dynamics will support explosive intensification there, though. I think the SST's would allow it, though.
I'm not quite following your Rapid Intensification post.
Unclosed Low, at this time, and a good part of the future track is over land/ islands.
Terrain above 5000ft and/ or the 850mb level. Any vortice that might spin up, or down will have a very hard time holding together against the Greater Antilles topography.
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danielw
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Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.
Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.
Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
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damejune2
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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WTF? If that were me, it would have been sent to the graveyard.
I am not a met, in fact, like Dawn put it, i am novice when it comes to weather, but i don't see this thing getting too strong considering the terrain it will endure and the short distance between land and sea.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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ftlaudbob
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Sorry guys,But I don't see much of anything there.Looks like a mess.Maybe that will change,but as of now,not much to worry about.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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