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Development chances for 96L up to 70%. Recon did not find a good center. Development more likely tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
92L Update [Re: Frank P]
      #46094 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:33 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1157 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE CROSSED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. VIGOROUS PRECIPITATION NOW CONTINUES IN BANDS OF A V FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED TO 2.38 INCHES SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION SO WILL NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 92L Update [Re: danielw]
      #46095 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:44 AM

yeah no doubt... from what I can tell its not as well organized as this afternoon either, however, a slight increase in convection is showing up on the IR loops in the general area of what once was almost the center.... boy its getting late for me

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: Frank P]
      #46096 - Sat Jul 30 2005 05:19 AM

San Juan Radar is indicating at least one, if not two, areas of circulation in the rain and thunderstorms.
One is indicated South of the Mona Passage (SW Puerto Rico) and the other, just off the NW shore of Puerto Rico.

The southern circulation appeared to have more convective type precipitation. And the area on the northern side of Puerto Rico appeared to be more stratiform type precipitation.

Aquadilla and Ponce are reporting lightning this hour.
San Juan, Charlotte Amalie-St. Thomas, and Christiansted are reporting light rain.
Charlotte Amalie and Christiansted were noted to have backing winds over the last few hours.


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #46098 - Sat Jul 30 2005 07:56 AM

Does anyone have a link for long range radars out of PR?

Nevermind, I guess I should have googled it before asking the questions.

Puerto Rico Radar

Edited by zacros (Sat Jul 30 2005 08:00 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: zacros]
      #46100 - Sat Jul 30 2005 08:24 AM

Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #46104 - Sat Jul 30 2005 08:42 AM

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF FLORIDA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS.

Are they referring to the blob on the eastern tip of Florida or are the satellites behind on the update?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #46107 - Sat Jul 30 2005 09:55 AM

Quote:

Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.


We get a thunder storm here almost every day,with brief heavy rain.And given how much rain we got in May and June,we do not need any rain.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #46108 - Sat Jul 30 2005 10:14 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.


We get a thunder storm here almost every day,with brief heavy rain.And given how much rain we got in May and June,we do not need any rain.


The Tampa Bay area is above normal for the year so far - slightly below normal for July.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 2/2/0


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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: MichaelA]
      #46109 - Sat Jul 30 2005 10:22 AM

On the first day of hurricane season here in Hollywood, FL., we were down 6.65 inches of precipitation below normal for the year. By July, we made that deficit up and were actually a quarter of an inch above normal, which is basically where we stand now on the last day of the second month of the season.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: Major7]
      #46111 - Sat Jul 30 2005 11:19 AM

We're a bit above average here in Pensacola too.....28.5 inches above average! We certainly don't need any more rain..until maybe Christmas. The good thing is that 92L's circulation is very near the Hispanola coast and formation looks like a long shot for the next 24 hours.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: pcola]
      #46112 - Sat Jul 30 2005 11:26 AM

Georges was 1998 - Not 1997. I say that because i was working for an insurance company in Sarasota at the time and me and a few other guys had to drive to Venice to rent ryder trucks. The company wanted to pack up all their important stuff. I worked at this place in 1998, and if memory serves i believe it was August when Georges skimmed our coast and headed north towards Pensacola/Mobile.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Sat Jul 30 2005 11:34 AM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update [Re: damejune2]
      #46113 - Sat Jul 30 2005 11:39 AM

Your right...Sept 98...too many storms to remember the last 10 years...4 eyewalls will do that too you....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: pcola]
      #46115 - Sat Jul 30 2005 11:53 AM

Looking like old 93L which fizzled yesterday is starting to come back to life. Recon may check it out tomorrow:
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25
MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

As far as 92L is concerned, shear pretty much tore it apart and looks like it will be heading in the general direction of the bahamas as an open wave during the next few days. Overall looks like a relatively quiet weekend on hand.
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1095
Loc: fl
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #46116 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:27 PM

Yeah parts of central florida are below avg for July rainfall. They need a couple days of .5 inches or rain.

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MissBecky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 90
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #46117 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:31 PM

I'm not sure 92L is dead yet. The latest runs of NOGAPS and the MM5 show the remains of 92L making it into the Gulf. MM5 even shows it becoming a major storm right off the west coast of Florida.

--------------------
In search of a witty sig.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1095
Loc: fl
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: MissBecky]
      #46118 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:44 PM

93L has no west wind with it. Moreless a east and north wind, hard to see but maybe a south wind. Cant get any ship reports from there. Anything if any does develop will be very slow. There is no model support for this as of 12Z.

92L again wont develop untill Sunday( if at all) as the upper low to its NNW is moving WSW. By later tomorrow the shear will become ventilation as a ridge forms over or just east of 92L. As 92L slows down near the Turks it could become better organized. CMC and some GFS want to take a piece of this and take it NE towards bermuda by mid week. While also taking it west across florida Tuesday. Whatever is near the bahamas or south of there will be pushed west into the gulf with the ridge over N florida.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: scottsvb]
      #46119 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:50 PM

I live on west coast of florida, south of Tampa and we are above average in rainfall. As a matter of fact, we have been under a flood watch/warning for a while now. Well, every other day they say we are under a watch and or warning. It doesn't take much rain for the manatee river in myakka city to flood and of course there is Lake Manatee and it's reservoir. The last two to three years we have been doing well in the rain department - time or a lull!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: scottsvb]
      #46120 - Sat Jul 30 2005 12:55 PM

I just checked the forecast discussion for my area and it says two tropical waves will make their way through the southern part of the state mid week....says nothing of them being too frisky.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507301633

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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MissBecky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 90
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: damejune2]
      #46122 - Sat Jul 30 2005 01:00 PM

Quote:

I just checked the forecast discussion for my area and it says two tropical waves will make their way through the southern part of the state mid week....says nothing of them being too frisky.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507301633





Thanks for the link. The Ft. Myers ten-day forecast shows slightly lower temperatures beginning Tuesday of next week, but the chance of rain has not gone up. Here's hoping that doesn't change. We don't need any more rain here. We're already 9 inches over our normal precipitation levels.

--------------------
In search of a witty sig.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1095
Loc: fl
Re: 93L coming back to life? [Re: MissBecky]
      #46124 - Sat Jul 30 2005 01:05 PM

Just matters where you live in florida for needed rain. Little Manatee River floods all the time down there. I dont think your under a floodwatch but anytime it rains that could happen.

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