damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Currently we are not under a watch, but at least three to four times a week we are.....you know the scene.....you are watching a local tv channel, maybe it's your fav sitcom, when all of a sudden, *BEEP, BEEP, BEEP* this text rolls the bottom of your screen saying there is a flood watch...LOL....happens almost everyday!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Jul 30 2005 05:15 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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You are welcome! I think the whole west coast from Tampa to Naples has seen enough rain for a while. Here is something interesting and maybe the mets on here can offer an explanation: When i first moved here in 1987, the everyday summer thunderstorms arrived between 1pm-4pm. Gradually over the years the storms arrive later and later and now, even though it clouds up around 2pm, the thunderstorms don't hit until almost 5pm.....is this do to the change in the Atlantic??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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LOL I think the storms hit at 5:00 because that's when everybody has to drive home from work!
In all seriousness though, that's a good question. I'm curious to know what the answer is.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I know the feeling - the big line that came through MD on Wednesday hit between 6 and 7 pm. I was without power for a full day...
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Actually parts of the Tampa area are up to 2 inches below normal for the month of July...my grass can use some rain..hehehe.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Thunderstorms hit when there is enough instability in the atmosphere. Matters where in florida you live and which way the winds are blowing. For example a east wind across the state would mean the west coast should recieve the storms due to their sea-breeze colliding with the east wind by noon but some areas might not get it till later in the afternoon. Also vice versa. Also some days a upper level low or trough might be in the area causing the storms to pop up almost anytime during the daytime hours.
Overall its how much moisture is in the atmosphere,daytime heating and wind direction that will determine where and when storms arrive. Florida during the summer is hit-miss so you may not get hit till 5 but others might get hit hours before or after even. There is no change to this since recordings started in the late 1800s.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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JB said a couple of days ago that it was possible for a system to form on the tail end of the recent front, in the NE GOM. Have not heard much talk about it but there is a lot of convection firing and lots of Rain here in the panhandle today. Might be worth watching .
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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93L seems to be getting better organized this afternoon. It is also in the same area that Emily formed. Not good.
Latest Trop Wx Discussion
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yes, but that 2" could come today and tomorrow. 
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Michael
PWS
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schmoo
Verified CFHC User
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Is the low south of AL/FL starting to do something?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Is the low south of AL/FL starting to do something?
That appears to be mostly onshore, so I don't think much will develop there.
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Michael
PWS
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Both systems look much better this afternoon.Thunder storms are really flaring up.Will have to wait and see if this continues.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Looking at the sat shots, there might be some sort of low pressure around 21N 67W in 92L. We'll have to see if that bears out, but it looks like there could be something trying to brew up there. Nothing organized at the moment on PR Radar, but it's still worth a look-see.
The GOM low appears off shore but it's very disorganized with another possible low onshore, and there looks like some shear in the area that could complicate any possible development. Tallahassee radar shows a small small hint of a turn in the storms that are due south of Mobile, but it's quite possibly just a transient feature.
93L seems to have it's main energy to the south 11N 55W or so, which, similar to Emily, could mean running into South America if it doesn't start poking north. Again, nothing really organized at the moment, so whatever is going to develop, it's going to develop slowly.
Not quite a Nothing to see, move along, But I don't think we'll see a depression before August.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Tallahassee radar shows a small small hint of a turn in the storms that are due south of Mobile, but it's quite possibly just a transient feature.
-Mark
Mobile is at the extreme edge of TLH radar.
Vortice at that range would be above 15,000 feet.
Not low level.
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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NHC 7/30/05
5PM
TAFB Atlantic Forecasts and Analyses
There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.
TAFB East Pacific Forecasts and Analyses
There are no tropical cyclones in the East Pacific at this time.
*sigh*
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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What kind of feature is spinning in the Atlantic at
30N 40W ?
Edited by Major7 (Sat Jul 30 2005 10:50 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I, for one, am kinda glad there's nothing out there for once! We went 28 straight days -- from July 2nd to 29th -- with no gaps in classified systems in the Atlantic basin. That's pretty active for any time of year, yet alone July. I don't think the break is going to last, however. 93L is progressing along rather well and is the biggest candidate for development. Recon might head out there tomorrow; I've got some thoughts on it in my latest blog entry, available on the front page.
The feature near 30N/40W is an upper-level low -- akin to what HF was harping on early this week -- and isn't a likely candidate for tropical development. It's firing convection, however, which may kick into gear some sort of tropical mode of development (and perhaps a hybrid-type structure down the line)...but that's certainly not a given.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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Clark,
If you've got a minute to play teacher again....
When you and others say "hybrid-like structure", what exactly does that mean?
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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The short of it is... not tropical, but not quite either. A system that shares characteristics of both.
Nicole last year was a subtropical storm.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Jul 31 2005 12:07 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Lysis took care of the basics in the post above, but it's essentially a storm that isn't entirely cold-core (i.e. ) or entirely warm-core (i.e. tropical). Often, these storms develop a shallow warm-core at low-levels, maintaining their cold-core structure aloft. The wind field isn't as expansive as an system, but not as tight and well-defined (or as strong) as a tropical system. Convection has some organization with colder cloud tops near the center, unlike an system, but does not consolidate into a core feature nor does it tend to maintain itself over a period of days (instead opting for bursts), unlike a tropical system.
Sometimes they undergo "tropical transition" (the opposite of transition), where they sit over warm waters for a number of days well-removed from the mid-latitude pattern and gradually acquire tropical characteristics, like Nicole last year and Ana in 2003, but more often than not they do not. Persistent convection and a contracting wind field (which you can judge with QuikSCAT fields) are generally the best signs that something might be occurring; it takes convection and its associated updrafts coupled with inflow at low levels generally found with a surface area of low pressure to get something going, much like with a tropical wave, but it has the added requisite of overcoming a cold core aloft.
Needless to say, we'll have to watch it, but anything that happens is going to be slow to get going and not anything that should threaten land.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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