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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Heather]
      #45884 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:14 PM

Heather & MichaelA,
Interesting Heather. Critters do know stuff (or feel) that I'm sure humans don't understand. Just making sure of the survival of their species I guess.
Michael, The cones are green, green, green. Don't know. Unfortunately I didn't pay much attention to the color of the cones when they liked them the most.

This is the point forecast for my area - long term.......

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE
MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM REMNANT TUTT CELL MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ATLANTIC UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS WEST NORTHWEST. DURING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE SERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILD
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA'S WITH ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEVELOPING MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL FAVOR HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SETTING
UP OVER WESTERN MOST SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE ADJACENT GULF DURING
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

Guess they are thinking it will go in the gulf.

Time for bed - up at 4 in the am.

Night all, Hoot


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Hootowl]
      #45887 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:14 PM

I happen to have 2 parakeets and 2 cockateils and a pet squirrel. I know that when Franklin made his closest approach, they yapped and squealed non stop day and night until Franklin was not considered a threat to the US at all. They have calmed down and seem to be following the sun now up when the sun comes up and quiet when the sun goes down. We will see if this changes by the end of this weekend.My usual hints are slugs on the patio window and rain frogs trying to get into the house. I did see a waterfowl rob a local gold fish pond the other day. Another clue we get is that the beach combers start moving in to the city limits from Tampa Bay area when there is a storm in the Gulf, I havent seen any of those lately(beach combers=birds generally seen at the beach)

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45888 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:22 PM

We had sharks showing up at Sea Rim State Park. Then there was a shark attack in Galveston. This is very unusual for this area. This happened before Dennis made landfall in Mexico. Thought it was kind of interesting also.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Steve]
      #45889 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:23 PM

We are having lots of stormy weather here at the moment.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45890 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:25 PM

I think then it must have been the Cindy storm I was talking about in the Pensacola ARea. Duh. in terms of the shark attack on the Northern Gulf coast. Too many storms to remember already!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45891 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:28 PM

While we're on the subject of critters - last summer a day or two before Frances, I saw no less than thirteen manatees, all in a group, booking it south (the storm of course passed north of us in Palm Beach). In addition I probably saw five or six more head south throughout the day, in a place where you're lucky to see one lone manatee every few weeks.

ON-TOPIC CONTENT: it's getting really hard to identify a closed curculation on 92L, could it be the trailing edge of the Saharan dust event having negative effects?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: leetdan]
      #45892 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:34 PM

I did not know there was a closed circulation already. I did not think they would declare it anything but an invest until the Recon gets out to measure and check the center or lack thereof but maybe I am wrong. ITs late.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45893 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:40 PM

Oh, I don't think one was ever officially claimed, but it sure looked like it had more of a twist to it earlier this afternoon.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45895 - Thu Jul 28 2005 10:50 PM

On the topic of critters and people using slugs in their windowsills or squirrels in their chimneys as meteorlogical predictors, I can tell you that last summer there were actual dogs being taken for walks by their owners and we got four hurricanes. Also, I saw a puddy cat at somebody's house. Plus, on an Animal Planet show, they were showing monkeys. What does it mean? I don't know.

Also, this one time, at band camp ...

Alright everyone...whether or not you agree with animals being able to foretell the weather, let's respect everyone's opinions here and not lash out at others? I'm not using the above post as an example, but am using it to take care of the others below.

We are pretty lienient with what we allow here, but we don't allow attacks on other posters. As LI Phil says, no cussin' & no fightin' allowed! Thanks! --Clark


Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 29 2005 12:26 AM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: lawgator]
      #45896 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:05 PM

The waves behind 92L look really bad anymore after they look so promising anyone now what happened?

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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED* [Re: NONAME]
      #45897 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:12 PM

Post deleted by Clark

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: La Nimo]
      #45899 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:15 PM

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at 92L, more and more of the models are showing a northward turn..what do people think about this

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED* [Re: Clark]
      #45901 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:24 PM

Post deleted by Clark

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED* [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45902 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:27 PM

Post deleted by Clark

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Ryan]
      #45905 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:37 PM

OK. I was just commenting, in my own inartful way, that correlation does not equal causation. Not even sure there is a correlation with some of the critter stories on here. But even if there was, my point was one cannot assume (nor in most cases credibly argue) an actual relationship between events. In the scheme of things, the number of storms is too low to reach out for some of the things people notice and then wonder about.

Not to mention the fact that I see all sorts of bizarre behavior in both animals and in people ... and then there is no hurricane.

My argument was something along the lines of the science of the knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. If she weighs the same as a duck, and ducks float just like wood, that would make her made of wood and, as wood burns just like witches, the conclusion is that if she weighs the same as a duck she is a witch.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Ryan]
      #45906 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:38 PM

Quote:

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at 92L, more and more of the models are showing a northward turn..what do people think about this




Not sure what to think about this. To be honest, I haven't heard of some of those models. I know about the A90's and the CLIPPER. Those two models are quite old however, and I wouldn't put too much stock into them. The BAM models and the LBAR are *probably* the best performers out of all of the models on that map.

As 92L gets further north, farther away from the deep tropics, the global models will likely be the better choice for tracking this system. They have been known to handle mid-latitude features better than the statistical models.


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Rabbit]
      #45907 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:39 PM

Hi everyone, I have got started tracking storms and following this forum just for more pecuniary interests; last year Ivan, remember (oil trader). However I did learn to enjoy this topic by itself. Now, hurricanes for me are business and hobby at the same time.

If both cook enough and looking at Animated Storm Model Plots, we will have 92L heading to SE coast and 93L surely landing into the GOM. Is it that right?

I am also a little confused about the possibilities of both to become a real threat.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Kevin]
      #45908 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:40 PM

kevin-would you happen to know a link for the global models?

thanks, Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Juanky
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: [Re: Clark]
      #45909 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:41 PM

Looking at the latest sat. run, seems like it is slowing down and trying to spin around itself and tighten up, then again my eyes are untrained.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: oil trader]
      #45910 - Thu Jul 28 2005 11:42 PM

Quote:

Hi everyone, I have got started tracking storms and following this forum just for more pecuniary interests; last year Ivan, remember (oil trader). However I did learn to enjoy this topic by itself. Now, hurricanes for me are business and hobby at the same time.

If both cook enough and looking at Animated Storm Model Plots, we will have 92L heading to SE coast and 93L surely landing into the GOM. Is it that right?

I am also a little confused about the possibilities of both to become a real threat.




i'd say thats a safe bet for 92L but saying 93L is surely heading into the GOM is a little far fetched, just my opinion

EDIT: to answer your last question, i think that 92L is a threat to the Bahamas and 93L is or will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles...just give em some time

.Ryan

Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 11:45 PM)


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