susieq
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What are those tiny red dots that appear from time to time in this loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Have you forgotten to take your medication today Susie?? 
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damejune2
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I checked it out and zoomed in on it.....the red dots could be little areas of thunderstorms popping up....not sure though......the other guys probably know.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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susieq
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Love it!!
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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danielw
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Quote:
What are those tiny red dots that appear from time to time in this loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
The red dots are probably thunderstorm cells that are very short-lived. Under better conditions, these 'red dots' are what you would see grow into large red areas and possibly into a . Under near perfect conditions.
One other explanation. I didn't see them shear off. They grew vertically and just died.
Dry air aloft...above the 'red level'.
Collapse of the 'convection'...rained itself out.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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 Must have been the wine.....
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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damejune2
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Daniel - I was watching the loop for the system/disturbance over the Bahamas and it looked really disorganized and coming apart, perhaps. Did you happen to see it when you looked at 92L loop?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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MichaelA
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or the beer.  Anyway, will it develop near PR or farther East to the NE of the leeward islands? or not at all? Looks to be a very complex system.
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Michael
PWS
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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I agree with you there but it's a mess!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Ryan
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92L is looking pretty sick..it must be coming down with something..what are peoples predictions for the storm?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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danielw
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005 (edited~danielw)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FRANKLIN IS QUICKLY BECOMING . AS SUCH...THE ISSUED ITS LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AT 2100 UTC...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N OR JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATED THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION DID NOT EXIST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/300005.shtml?
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MichaelA
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Alright. General prediction: The atmosphere "burped" pretty significantly in July. I'm thinking nothing major will form for a while, but the season will produce a couple of major (historical) storms late August through September. We'll probably see some lesser storms before then. I think we're in a lull for the time being.
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Michael
PWS
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Tropics Guy
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92L looking worse than earlier in the day, wind shear is getting the best of it right now. The shear conditions are not expected to lessen significantly until Sunday when IMO is when there will be a better chance for development.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Bloodstar
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Looking at the airflow, If a depression is going to develop, the best spot appears to be further back. say 60W 18N or so. Of course the spin is still evident on PR radar, but I think the main action will be further to the east and North of the current low. The biggest question for me is, will the energy continue to transfer west into the massive blob of convecion (that is unorganized but still fairly presistant). I'd say you might see something popping up in 12 - 24 hours east of PR.
The southern track looks like it's still stifled for moisture, so I think it'll kinda trek along for a while doing a whole lot of nothing.
Of course, I've been wrong before....In fact I'm usually wrong so
expect a hurricane south west of PR in 36 hours (I kid, but it sure feels like you should expect the opposite of what I think)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Bloodstar
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I'm hazarding it would be around 13N 50W or so... looks like it's gaining a little moisture, but even with storms now, how long would some presistant convection take to get something fired up down there...
(I'm presuming that used to be 93L correct me if I'm wrong please 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I agree with ya... almost looks like the wave is splitting in half via the IR loop, the western most part probably move off to the west, and the section lagging behind off to the northeast that you are discussing... this might be the area that eventually develops, who knows... would expect this to perhaps move more northwesterly over time... heck, by tomorrow no telling what will be going on with 92L, can say this however, the convection and center that we were tracking south of PR is pretty weak now and really opening up in the southern half.... just your normal weak tropical wave trying to figure out what it wants to do.... if its going to do anything....
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Windshear from the upper low to its N has pretty much destroyed the weak circulation 92L has yesterday into today. Recon found almost a closed low near St Croix but it wasnt closed.
Anyways if 1 does develop it wont be for at least a day or 2. The windshear has really hurt its chances. Expect it to continue towards the wnw and be in the bahamas by Sunday with another oppertunity to develop.
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Frank P
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it came really close this afternoon into closing off the low but it just wasnt in the cards I guess... it was interesting tracking it on the PR radar loops... nothing else to to but watch and see what happens... guess I'll have to watch for bears on the discovery channel late tonight with 92L fizzling
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danielw
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Another...small area to watch. It appears that the 'cool' front is making a push into the Northern GOM.
I noticed a MCS, moving offshore, just SE of Galveston.
With a front (weak front at that) pushing into the GOM, you can always watch for a Low to develop along the front.
Climatology for this year seems to be out the window. So it might be wasted energy on our part.
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Frank P
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yeah several local mets from NO were talking about something home grown... one said a weak system would develop off of Morgan city while another mentioned that something could develop south of the MS/AL line, and remain basically stationary... there was a very weak circulation south of the AL/FL this afternoon but it was amost impossible to see on the sat loops... extremely weak to say the least... both mets said that the system, if it comes to anything, would remain weak...
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