Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Not to draw attention away from TS Franklin, but 91L invest is now up for the Tropical wave about to move over the Yacatan.
Also looks like the Hurricane Hunters are going to be busy for a while
SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 23/1530Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 20.5N 92.5W D. 22.5N 94.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2300Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F.SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 25/1500Z ON FRANKLIN.
CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The north end of that wave looks as though there is a mid-level circulation associated with it, just onshore of the Yucutan near where Emily made landfall. The southern end, near Belize, is currently the more convectively active part of the system. Once it emerges into the Gulf overnight into tomorrow, something might get going. It's longer-term prospect would be better if the southern end were to win out, given the upwelling in the wake of Emily further north. Waters there are still around 27 C, recovering at a decent clip, but are churned up below the surface. Nevertheless, if a storm gets organized through there, it's likely going to be a short-lived event that heads to Mexico.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I`ve been watching the system at about 22N 52W to 17N 54W moving west at 20kt. Looks impressive on infrared. Maybe we`ll get something to track in the next few days, seeing that its moving into a more favorable enviroment... What do you guys and gals think out there in land....Weatherchef
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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
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I've been noticing the UKMET looks like the 'origin' is in the wrong place, compared to the other models, in the plots. It's looked messed up for several days now. Anybody know why or whether they are going to fix that? Am I correct in thinking that blue line should be shifted to start where all the others start (or closer to there)?
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