danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Last paragraph in the new Numbers Article.
4. Uncertainties in the Outlook
The main uncertainty in this outlook is the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in the United States and the region around the Caribbean Sea. Although the conditions that produce hurricane landfalls are well known, they are very difficult to predict at these extended ranges because they are often related to the daily weather patterns rather than the seasonal climate patterns. It is currently not possible to confidently predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Historically, seasons with above-normal levels of overall activity have averaged 2-3 U.S. hurricane landfalls and 1-2 landfalls in the region around the Caribbean Sea during August-November. Given the forecast of above-normal activity for the remainder of the season, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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wow. wow. wow.
They must really be certain that things in the tropics are going to hit the fan in the next few weeks to issue that high of a prediction  Yikes
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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We would need to average about one named storm a week, from now until the end of the season. That seems almost impossible. NOAA sure knows a heck of a lot more about hurricanes than I do.
Does anyone know if they typically issue forecasts that are higher than the actual numbers? I don't want to sound lulled into complacency by this brief respite, but these numbers just seem impossibly high.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Aug 02 2005 12:58 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Well if you think about it, we are in our 8th week and the is thinking we might
have TD#8 with 92L so.... we might just make that
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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I guess we did have 15 storms after this date last year....
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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If you look at the WV Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
and then look at the Bouy info just East of the low.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
we do have a Westerly wind:
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true ) 5knts
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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If I remember right and I could be wrong, I think that in the 2003 season we had 5 systems brewing at one time. Looks like the next 3 months might show us the same. If all hell breaks loose, I hope its one at a time so we can regroup and face what ever the weather gods throw at us........Bottom line as the title says.....BE PREPARED !!!!!!...............Weatherchef
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
wow. wow. wow.
They must really be certain that things in the tropics are going to hit the fan in the next few weeks to issue that high of a prediction Yikes
Not necessarily. A large quantity of the numbers are based on Climatology.
With August and September being the most active months...normally.
NOAA's Forecast, plus Dr Gray's Forecast, due out this week, should give us a better idea of what to expect.
Under normal conditions.
I've looked at Dr Gray's verification from last year. He was very close with all of his numbers.
It appears that the only numbers that were off. Were the numbers related to the longevity of the storms.
Named Storm days, Hurricane Days, and Intense Hurricane Days.
This was probably due to the August- September, 2004 surge in long track storms.
I'll have to see if NOAA has completed a verification of their Forecast from last year.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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umm..... 92L, if it develops, is on its way out to sea... Right????
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Beach:
That buoy is at 79.0, very far west (actually, southwest, I think) of the low associated with 92L, so it likely has nothing to do with the low associated with 92L. (And the wrote that there is a weak low associated with 92L, so the fact that one exists would not be a revelation, anyway.)
Are you referring to the rotation over Fla. visible in the water vapor loop, instead of to 92L? If so, I believe that's an upper level low, but hopefully one of the experts will chime in on that. (Actually, I just looked at the WV loop; the apparent circulation over Fla. is clockwise.) The light west wind at the buoy you gave the link for could be related to that feature, but likely is unrelated to any feature visible on that water vapor loop. Could just be a light wind associated with a storm or another transient weather feature offshore there.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Tue Aug 02 2005 01:20 PM)
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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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 yes newwatcher.. model plots are taking it out to sea... well, at least now they are 
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 edited~danielw
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N
W OF 76W. THIS IS JUST TO THE W OF THE FOCUS OF CONCERN...WHICH
IS A CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC FROM
23N-31N WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N73W...A SURFACE LOW TO THE SW
NEAR 25N69W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Just noticed something, if we happen to get the upper end of that forcast, 21 names storms, that will be using every name on the list, all the way down to .
I don't think we have ever gotten past the "T" before.
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Derek Sutherland
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Don't forget that last September we had EIGHT storms in that one month...
MM
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Joe Bastarti with Accuweather says," The most action will be from Aug 15 thru Oct. 15th ( I mean duh) along the eastern seaboard.( another given). " I`m targeting the Carolinas for the worst" he says.And also THERE WILL BE landfalls in New England and the Florida coast....How the hell does he know where the storms are going to impact......Florida has a good chance, Carolinas fair chance, but New England??? That going out on the limb wouldn`t you say?....maybe I`m wrong, I don`t know..........Weatherchef
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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it's got a low near the convection (partially under the convection) and it looks like it's spinning pretty good (it's had some sort of low there for a good day now). How close is it to being a tropical depression? In otherwords, what is it missing at this point that keeps it from being classified? I think it's close, whatever it is...
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say presistance and perhaps a more hybrid like structure at the moment? Mets, feel free to tell me what I'm missing...
-Mark
Edited to correct the Latitude (put 28 instead of 23 because I'm a ditz and didn't read the numbers
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Aug 02 2005 02:52 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Just noticed something, if we happen to get the upper end of that forcast, 21 names storms, that will be using every name on the list, all the way down to .
I don't think we have ever gotten past the "T" before.
This list shows the breakdown, by year, of the number of storms, and their classifications.
According to the list, we had 21 named or numbered systems in 2003.
Last name used was " P ".
Includes 3 TDs and 2 Subtropical depressions. If I'm reading it right.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/hurr/stormsummary.png
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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The Navy website now has 92L as TD-08.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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It's official, TD #8
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
Edit: Oops, guess I was a few seconds late.  Sorry for the double post.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:03 PM)
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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
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TD #8 has formed.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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