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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: 92L (23N 68W) [Re: zmdz01]
      #46327 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:03 PM

geez. deleted due to being 10,000th poster to post the info

sorry guys

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:04 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Possible Low [Re: HumanCookie]
      #46328 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:04 PM

*laughs* well then, it was even closer than close, And I'll presume that means it was missing nothing

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 92L Disconnected system [Re: Bloodstar]
      #46329 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:08 PM

This shot should answer your question. The Surface low is well SW of the convection. I would guess that shear is the main factor. The convection is being pushed NE of the surface part of the system.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-70W....
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-76W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER AS MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
( 4 degrees of longitude separate the lower and upper levels. That's around 240nm.~danielw)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:23 PM)


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: 92L Disconnected system [Re: danielw]
      #46330 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:28 PM

Which way is it moving then? Does not say. And it still does not say anything about a TD#8 on the NHC site.......

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 92L Disconnected system [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #46331 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:30 PM

it will at 5:00

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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Re: 92L Disconnected system [Re: LI Phil]
      #46332 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:31 PM

Okay, thanks

Phil, what do you think?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances

Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:31 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 92L Disconnected system [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #46333 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:33 PM

It's Moving toward the NE.
NHC has NOT released anything to classify 92L as a Tropical Depression.
They may release something just prior to 4 PM EDT.
As of this time 1932Z- 3:32 PM EDT
There isn't anything other than the NRL data to support the upgrade.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Bastardi Accu forcast????? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #46334 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:33 PM

Looks like JB figures few of the future storms will get into the Gulf but rather track into the western Atlantic before making landfall along the eastern seaboard. Did he give any reason(s) why he's predicitng the areas specified for hits? Seems he's really going out on a limb.

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Jamiewx
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Models and TD8 [Re: CoalCracker]
      #46335 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:40 PM

In addition to NRL, the text computer model data for 18Z also shows the following:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 021840
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082005) ON 20050802 1800 UTC

Full product

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Models and TD8 [Re: Jamiewx]
      #46336 - Tue Aug 02 2005 03:53 PM

Yep. That has Fish-Spinner written All over it.
54N 11 W. Hmmm
That's got to be near the U.K.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Models and TD8 [Re: danielw]
      #46337 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:08 PM

TD08 sure looks like it's gonna get yanked out to sea by that trof...

another view

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Models and TD8 [Re: danielw]
      #46338 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:14 PM

Yep. If that becomes Harvey, it's not going to be a "Wallbanger" for the states.

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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: big picture [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #46340 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:28 PM

I think with all the excitement of the new predictions for the rest of the year, your question got lost, and since I was also wondering, I will repost it.

When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?

Thanks.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: big picture [Re: Major7]
      #46341 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:39 PM

When I typed MJO in a search engine, I found a number on entries for "Madden-Julian Oscillation" which I'm sure is what you're looking for. In checking the results, however, I was totally lost. Perhaps one of our moderators could provide a basic explanation for those of us without a meterologicl background.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: big picture [Re: Major7]
      #46342 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:41 PM

Quote:

When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?

Thanks.




sorry...here's a full description of MJO

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: big picture [Re: Major7]
      #46343 - Tue Aug 02 2005 04:42 PM

Quote:



When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?

Thanks.




See The Madden-Julian oscillation

or MJO

or Madden-Julian Oscillation

or Google Madden-Julian Oscillation

'shana


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: big picture [Re: LI Phil]
      #46344 - Tue Aug 02 2005 05:04 PM

Thanks for the information.

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Models and TD8 [Re: LI Phil]
      #46345 - Tue Aug 02 2005 05:08 PM

Quote:

TD08 sure looks like it's gonna get yanked out to sea by that trof...

another view




Question: Do you think that trof might be partially restricting an inflow of dry air from the east?


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: big picture [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #46346 - Tue Aug 02 2005 05:11 PM

Yeah, fishspinner but NHC is predicting it will be a Tropical Storm by morning, though never a hurricane.

--------
On a semi-offtopic question:

Speaking of seasonal oscillations, know of any studies pertaining to weather patterns and periodic planetary axis wobbles? Also I'm interested in periodic solar storms/patterns of the same type. I just like patterns and haven't looked into this sort of thing with weather in about 9 years, and wondering if anything new's come out.


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: big picture [Re: Random Chaos]
      #46347 - Tue Aug 02 2005 05:22 PM

5pm advisory says TS by tonight.

Quote:

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.




and an update at 8.

'shana


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