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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic
      #46498 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:33 PM

8:30 AM 5 Aug Update
Tropical Depression Nine is holding at its current intensity, and probably will remain a tropical depression today becuase of the water temperature.

The best future track keeps it moving generally westnorthwest. Beyond that, it is still most likely to turn out to sea thankfully, but this is not a sure thing. We'll still have to watch it if it does not. Try back in 3 days or so to find out more.

Read the blogs for more discussion.

Original Update
A rather large distrubance in the central Atlantic has now formed into Tropical Depression 9. Yet another record for earliest in a single season.
I don't expect TD#9 to strengthen too much in the Short term. Once it becomes a tropical storm, it will get the name Irene. As food for thought, each of the last 4 "I" storms has been retired -- Iris, Isidore, Isabel, and Ivan -- but of course, each storm is unique in its own right. It will be worth watching as beyond a few days it has the chance to reach minimal hurricane strength.

The track takes it generally toward the west, with a turn more towards the north likely in a few days. How much the ridge builds back in behind Harvey will be key as to whether or not the future Irene recurves harmlessly out to sea or turns back more towards the west. Currently, I see more that would suggest it would move out to sea rather than become a true threat to land. However, this far out, we'll be watching for the persistance with the system. Clark has more on TD 9 & Harvey in the Met blogs below.

Plenty of time to watch this one folks, and I'll keep looking for ways to keep it away from land, which I see plenty of now.


Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)

TD#9
Animated Model Plot of TD#9
Model Plot of TD#9 (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #46503 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:37 PM

SHIPS brings it up to Hurricane Status in 72 hours as does the NHC.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #46504 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:46 PM

Yes, now TD #9. Too early to really call. Currently moving west at 14 mph. She'll be born to a name by tomorrow. I wouldn't close the books on her yet (out to sea). I see the models coming around to a more westerly track, given the ridge pumping up, which you can see the flow of to the north of the storm. How far west is the question. NHC stated that the second trough moving in towards Franklin would flatten/die out and hardly accelerate him to the NE, so that begs the question as to how he (or the second trough) affect 95L? IMO not a whole lot. This TD or whatever could get north of the eastern Caribbean islands and stall as steering currents weaken. So it may be up to whatever comes along late next week to determine where this one ends up. Anyone's guess at this point.

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ralphfl
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Steve H1]
      #46505 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:51 PM

all you can do is guess.The offical track has it going NW so do most models but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring.

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #46506 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:51 PM

I'm pretty much with NHC's 120 hour track...give or take a little with that line. But I'd say that things are really wide open after that.

FWIW, the 12Z GFS has backed off with a turn northward. Instead, it shows what would be "Irene" missing the low pressure areas and turning westward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

Interesting that last night, somebody on this board brought up a Frances (2004)/Alberto (2000) comparison for TD9. I think that is a fair comparison.

After 120 hours, we *could* see forecasts that show a westward turn. This really wouldn't surprise me. I just don't know if the trough/Harvey combination will be far enough south to pick Irene up and finish the job.


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Clark
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Kevin]
      #46507 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:54 PM

Kevin -- I'm about 50/50 on that turn right now. It all depends on how fast Harvey gets out of here, how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge, and how strong the future Irene gets. A turn like Frances could happen, or it could recurve harmlessly out to sea -- I don't know, and I don't think the models will agree on it for some time either. I do believe, however, that the storm will likely miss the islands to the north, probably by a fair distance.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: ralphfl]
      #46508 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:56 PM

Quote:

all you can do is guess.The offical track has it going NW so do most models but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring.




Going to have to respectfully disagree with two things from that post:
1. "all you can do is guess." Guess as in wild guess? Nah...better to make educated guesses. Where Irene goes after 120 hours will come into clearer view through the weekend. Just remember: with modelling, generally, the trend is your friend.

2." but on here its no fun to say it looks like it is going out to sea so im sure many people with there flair for wanting a storm to hit the U.S will be coming on with there WEST jogs and south Jogs or any Jog that keeps it going away and being boring."
Contrary to that statement, I would not say this board is loaded with wishcasters. I'm sure there are people in Florida who had their belongings damaged badly by canes last year. Those people want another storm? Yeah right...


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #46509 - Thu Aug 04 2005 04:58 PM

Quote:

Kevin -- I'm about 50/50 on that turn right now. It all depends on how fast Harvey gets out of here, how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge, and how strong the future Irene gets. A turn like Frances could happen, or it could recurve harmlessly out to sea -- I don't know, and I don't think the models will agree on it for some time either. I do believe, however, that the storm will likely miss the islands to the north, probably by a fair distance.




50/50 looks about right...i'm sure that even pro mets would have a hard time justifying one solution over another at this point. it's just too early. looking for trends is the best way to go.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Kevin]
      #46511 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:04 PM

Agreed...and that's why the NHC forecast is pretty conservative on motion and track right now, too. It keeps it largely moving WNW, then between WNW and NW, through 5 days while maintaining the intensity at minimal hurricane strength beyond 3 days, as they often do. My only concern is on intensity...the waters NE & N of the islands have some of the highest heat content in the basin. Once it touches those, the intensity could perk up there -- assuming favorable upper-level conditions. We have plenty of time to watch for that, however.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Kevin]
      #46512 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:07 PM

As far as if it is going to hit the U.S all you can do right now is guess and not wild but a guess.

As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.


Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.

The point is the NHC does not go and make predictions more then 5 days out and even then the margin for error is great so how can ANYONE right now say anything for down the road but wait and see.


You can't make a prediction now about 7-10 days from now as the NHC can't even but watch the people will be out in force soon with the francis posts and the watch out east coast of Florida posts.


Is it just too boring to say well guys lets check it in 3 days from now and se whats up.

Nope that would be boring so the uneducated predictions will come.

You want one from me that will come true? like most i cant be wrong.

Well it has a 50/50 shot at either going out to sea or going west and hitting the U.S.

Well im a forcaster now huh? im going to be right 1 way or the other.

Since kevin already responded to your post below, i will simply remind you that attacks, however 'innocent,' on other posters will not be tolerated. Let's keep the tone civil.

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 04 2005 05:52 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Kevin]
      #46513 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:13 PM

The storm could be pulled more to the north at mid ocean and then as the weakness snaps shut and the high builds in it would end up going west again .. beyond the five day for now.

Have to wait and see. It's a big storm though and a good part of it is anchored to the south. It already has a nice tail as well as a concentrated center.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: ralphfl]
      #46514 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:29 PM

Quote:

As far as if it is going to hit the U.S all you can do right now is guess and not wild but a guess.

As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.


Just read back to the Dennis posts to see them they are there.

The point is the NHC does not go and make predictions more then 5 days out and even then the margin for error is great so how can ANYONE right now say anything for down the road but wait and see.


You can't make a prediction now about 7-10 days from now as the NHC can't even but watch the people will be out in force soon with the francis posts and the watch out east coast of Florida posts.


Is it just too boring to say well guys lets check it in 3 days from now and se whats up.

Nope that would be boring so the uneducated predictions will come.

You want one from me that will come true? like most i cant be wrong.

Well it has a 50/50 shot at either going out to sea or going west and hitting the U.S.

Well im a forcaster now huh? im going to be right 1 way or the other.




First of all, we're not even talking about any landfalls. We're talking about the *possible* motion trends after 5 days. Nobody mentioned any landfall locations.

To make another point: sure, I'll give it to you...wishcasters can be found on most all weather message boards. I don't think it is an absolutely huge problem on this board though.

There's nothing wrong with waiting to check up on the system in a few days. The wait and see method is just one way that people can watch storms. At the same time, some people actually enjoy speculating on where a storm may track in the long run. As long as the speculation is not totally left field, I believe it is appropriate for these message boards. Once again, calling a landfall point for TD 9 would be left field at this point. Speculation on motion after 120 hours without making a landfall prediction? That is probably okay, as long as acceptable reasoning is provided.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #46515 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:39 PM

Where have you been LoisCane?
good to see your post.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #46516 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:52 PM

I'm disliking the extended outlook path of the storm up here in MD. Taking a trendline out from the last 2 days of the 5-day brings it into the mid-atlantic. Hope it goes fish spinning.

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leetdan
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: ralphfl]
      #46517 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:53 PM

Quote:

As far as wishcasters oh ya there are some you watch when they post here forcast about it going to a certain place in the U.S and then it turns out to sea they go away till a turn comes back.I have read this forum a long time and as with every site there is always wishcasters and they will be out no matter what NHC says.




Hey guys, what are the chances of TD9 hitting SE Florida, specifically the southern half of Jupiter, on the morning of Saturday the 13th, between 8am and 1pm? My family's having a yard sale and I need to know if they're going to be hit or not!!



But seriously folks... as huge as TD9 is, the last few IR frames shows a compact flare of convection over the 'center'. What sort of Dvorak numbers would substantiate christening Irene?

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Ryan
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: leetdan]
      #46518 - Thu Aug 04 2005 05:59 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

reason: bad post

why..it wasnt bad

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Thu Aug 04 2005 07:22 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: leetdan]
      #46519 - Thu Aug 04 2005 06:01 PM

Quote:


Hey guys, what are the chances of TD9 hitting SE Florida, specifically the southern half of Jupiter, on the morning of Saturday the 13th, between 8am and 1pm? My family's having a yard sale and I need to know if they're going to be hit or not!!







The 13th? You're doomed!


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Ron Basso
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #46521 - Thu Aug 04 2005 06:08 PM

After 120 hours, the 12Z GFDL builds in a 1024 mb ridge off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. I'd expect this ridge to elongate and sink slightly south to "fill-in" the weakness left by Harvey and join up with remaining Atlantic Ridge to the east. Kevin mentioned this earlier and it has some support from the long-range GFS. I would expect a more westward motion after 120 hours but it still has a lot of ocean to cover before even threatening the US. But, at this point, I'm leaning more toward it getting in the western Atlantic then recurving north up the middle.

--------------------
RJB


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Ron Basso]
      #46525 - Thu Aug 04 2005 06:35 PM

Let's enjoy the growth spurt of TD9, and see where she goes (Irene?). Let's enjoy discussing the sciences and logic behind these systems which attracted me to this site.

I enjoy you guys!

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ryan
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Re: Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic [Re: Ron Basso]
      #46527 - Thu Aug 04 2005 07:06 PM

Quote:

After 120 hours, the 12Z GFDL builds in a 1024 mb ridge off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. I'd expect this ridge to elongate and sink slightly south to "fill-in" the weakness left by Harvey and join up with remaining Atlantic Ridge to the east. Kevin mentioned this earlier and it has some support from the long-range GFS. I would expect a more westward motion after 120 hours but it still has a lot of ocean to cover before even threatening the US. But, at this point, I'm leaning more toward it getting in the western Atlantic then recurving north up the middle.




i agree with you on the northward turn...somehting for all the coast to watch tho

what do other people think?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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