Kevin
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Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
A poster gave this link out at another message board...this forecast was produced 12 UTC 6 AUG...produced today.
TS Irene...moving SW...next Tuesday? I'd like to hear some thoughts on this. This product was also put out by TPC/TAFB...which are in conjunction with . Maybe we're going to see some track changes eventually?
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damejune2
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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I looked at that link you posted....it's pretty spooky. I really don't know much about these things so any opinion i have would be way off, but i'll give it a try. Seems like they are going a little extreme with it on that map...there would have to be some pretty strong steering currents (you'd think) for the storm to go wnw and suddenly turn the opposite direction. I could see it going more to the west, like towards east coast of fla and perhaps georgia, but not sw into the caribbean.
Then again, stranger things have happened with other storms like Jeanne and i remember another storm looping around again, cant remember what the name is though.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Aug 06 2005 06:50 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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That is interesting indeed and also interesting how much that track is much the same as the MRFO model track of 00Z today. Not sure if that played into it or not but they are really close.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Is there much alike between the carolina storm now and alex last year and can i have a loop of alex. Also I think will change TD9s track next advisory.
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Ron Basso
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Quote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
A poster gave this link out at another message board...this forecast was produced 12 UTC 6 AUG...produced today.
TS Irene...moving SW...next Tuesday? I'd like to hear some thoughts on this. This product was also put out by TPC/TAFB...which are in conjunction with . Maybe we're going to see some track changes eventually?
Kevin, I think, if it survives and latest visible SAT looks to me like it will, that it may miss the weakness left by Harvey and head on a more due west course somewhere near 22N-60W as the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds in the wake of Harvey. HPC indicates the bermuda high to be normal or slightly stronger than normal throught there D+8 means. I believe the 12Z and 06Z mm5 show this happening. We'll see..it's a long way off and TD9 needs to survive its encounter with the ULL and lots of dry air.
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RJB
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damejune2
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I dont know if this means much, but i checked wunderground and the model runs at 2pm still have the TD going to the northwest. BAMM medium model has it going west and then to the northwest in about 48 hrs.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Td 9 on IR looks like Convection is Starting to wrap more around what does anyone else think
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Also what about the Carolina Storm what is it alike alex last year
Edited by NONAME (Sat Aug 06 2005 07:10 PM)
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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What is that thing off the Gorgia/SC coast? It's definately rotating, but in an anti-cyclonic direction.
As for all the waves and cyclonic lows, looks like we might have a busy week coming up.
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HanKFranK
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harvey is maybe starting to nudge north now. 9L is generating a good amount of convection again.. it's still displaced under westerly shear, but the storm is deepening nonetheless. shear should lessen tomorrow. it's on a track where you just can't tell whether it will get the harvey wake-weakness or not... might go up and out, or it might get into the western atlantic and back under the ridge. there are model runs showing either scenario and the track up the middle to compensate for the uncertainty... models have switched sides on this thing, too. gut tells me it will strengthen tomorrow and monday and turn northwestward, but i'm not certain. there's some activity south/southwest of 9L.. and odd low trying to develop.. but proximity should keep it inactive. the trailer wave is fairly vigorous but should take a few days to get organized if at all.
northern gulf coast system has been a series of lows that develop near the coast, and redevelop.. but never get any better organized. i don't think it's more than a rainmaker.
east of jacksonville is a different story. it isn't jammed into the coast and isn't beneath an upper low. that thing should make a development run.. and move north or northwest towards the carolinas. it will have to hurry because time is limited. wouldn't talk about reconning it if there wasn't a good chance it'll try to develop.
further southeast near 26/72 there's another low level turning... under easterly shear right now. this feature should migrate wnw per eta and persist, unless the system to its nw develops significantly and entrains it.
should have irene tomorrow... with a modest chance of another system developing close in.
HF 1925z06august
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Yes Ron, obviously that would be the case in that scenario. Still though, a bit odd to see a product like that. For one, 's other products (not advisories, but surface maps etc.) usually follow the guidance of the official track forecasts. And as another point, many of the models still want to show a northward curve at some point.
In turn, that surface map becomes all the more interesting.
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MapMaster
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That's an old forecast...look at the initial date.
Harvey and TD 9 look like twins (fraternal rather than identical, but close!) Also, latest vis on TPC page shows another vortex/center SOUTH of existing one...maybe it is reforming to the north, closer to convection...and that little swirl to the S is the old center??
Looks like system off Ga is beginning to wrap up.
Funny how that area can spin up systems fast sometimes (ie, Gaston).
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Sat Aug 06 2005 07:39 PM)
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Old Sailor
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To me looks like TD9 has moved more to the NW or the center has relocated, guess , see what at about 4:50PM.
Dave
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Does anyone here think that the area off SC/GA has the potential of beating TD 9 to become TS Irene?
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MapMaster
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Yep--5 pm, relocated northward.
Fishspinner??
MM
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Never say Never, TD9 at this point in time to be following the Models,,, there still about a 20 to 30% chance that could keep going West and put the lower half of East coast in Harms way.
dave
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Random Chaos
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Looking at the latest model (about 11 hours old...should be a new one soon, I think), it shows TD9 remaining weak throughout the 6 days, and has it following Harvey north almost exactly on the same old track.
However, a more intersting point is what it does to that wave behind 09. It is pulling it into a rather strong vortex within 3-4 days.
Also, it shows that low off the FL/AL coast strengthing its vorticy and another swirl coming up in the gulf and heading toward central America (though not strong).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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Clark
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N of Hispaniola: run of the mill cell, an upper-low that has been moving west for days now. Nothing to be concerned with. Should continue west, maybe slowing down.
SC/GA coast feature: if it were to sit there for a few days, sure. Don't foresee much development with this one, though. Probably at best, a repeat of TD 7 from 2003, heading NW inland. Might see something akin to the feature that moved up the east coast at the end of June, but on a different track. Tough to discern if a surface center is there right now; some broad low-level turning just east of Jacksonville earlier has faded, while the mid-level convective feature is obscuring things further NE. Will be watched, but not bullish on development.
FL/AL feature: much easier to discern a surface feature here, but it's weak and tough to tell if it is of a tropical or nature. Banking somewhere in the middle. Too close to land and too much shear to do anything big, but the weakness should hang around for a few more days near land. If it were further south, it'd have a shot...here, though, not likely.
TD 9: well, the convection finally decided to come closer to the center. Some of the models are perking up with this one a little more down the line, while the official track seems to be slowing down in the long range. More likely to recurve now than to not, but there's no consensus whatsoever towards either option.
Harvey: heading out to sea, earlier indications that it might try to undergo some development, but in any case...well out of our hair.
Next up: might see the next African wave get classified with an invest in a day or two as it moves further west. It's got a shot, but it's got a little bit of what TD 9 went through to deal with as well. Shouldn't go that far north, which would likely see it meet much the same fate, but probably won't get going until later on down the line.
Elsewhere...the basin's closed south of about 28 N and west of the islands. That upper-low near Hispaniola has coupled with a couple of other cells to create a shearing environment across the region. As it moves west, things will improve, but the southern Gulf and W. Caribbean are probably closed for another week or so.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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NONAME
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Could TD 9 Possibly be Spliting
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Ron Basso
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Quote:
Could TD 9 Possibly be Spliting
What you may be refering to is the other circulation to the north of the low level center..this is an ULL that has been shearing the system for the past 2 days..looks like TD9 is cruising to the west now caught in the low level flow
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RJB
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NONAME
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Now That Carolina Storm looks a lot like Alex
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