CaneTrackerInSoFl
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It seems that it may either be wobbling wsw right now or even moving in that general direction. If it keeps up then it will move into a much more favorable area for development.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Spoken
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In regard to the feature centered slightly north of Hispaniola – while I appreciate you're a moderator here (and thanks by the way) – have you visited the following page this evening?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
My thinking is the feature might appear to be attracting moisture – which admittedly might seem destined for various other systems. My point would be that if the moisture doesn't continue to seem destined for at least some other system then perhaps this particular feature would (at that point) be worth keeping an eye on.
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BillD
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That is an upper level low (ULL) and will figure in to the surrounding environment, as all upper level features do.
Bill
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Clark
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Upper lows often do have moisture in association with them; there is nothing in their definition that says that they must be dry features. In fact, the cold air aloft found with these features often helps to trigger convection due to steepened lapse rates (how temperature changes with height) from the surface to mid & upper levels. They can occasionally spin-up surface reflections that can develop, but that is a slow process and there are no signs of this occurring. Further, it often occurs in conjunction with either slow-moving upper-lows and/or those interacting with a tropical wave/pre-existing surface boundary, neither of which are occurring here.
NONAME -- there is no indication that the feature off of the Carolina coast is similar to Alex. The is no longer really looking at this as a candidate for development.
Aside: it looks like there's some interesting interaction going on between the upper-low and TD 9 this evening. The overall feature is still to the north, but a weak impulse has moved down to just north of the depression, helping to keep the storm from moving any more to the north. It is likely helping to enhance the convection on the east side of the storm -- but also keep it on the east side of the storm. It'll have a respite tomorrow as this feature moves away, but there's another impulse due east of Harvey near 48 W that will dive down around the periphery of the larger feature and impact the depression towards Monday. Better conditions lie ahead in terms of both shear and water temperatures, but there's also a good bit of dry air out there as well.
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Spoken
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Thank you. I had noticed that this ULL seemed to be maintaining a 'dry half' (so to speak) south of Hispaniola. Now I think I have a better idea as to why that could seem to be the case.
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Spoken
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Quote:
They can occasionally spin-up surface reflections that can develop, but that is a slow process and there are no signs of this occurring.
Thank you. I going to try digesting that – in addition to the rest of what you said. In the meantime could a chain of mountains somehow facilitate this spinning-up process?
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Ryan
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does anyone think thia could be a NJ, NY, CT storm..and if so or if its possible what are the odds and could this thing make it to cat 1 or 2 in the current SST's?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Is it heading a little south of west now? I know its heading west but it almost looks south of west.
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Frank P
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I think it is moving generally west, however on the last frame of this loop it does look like a little wobble to the wsw... but its still hard discerning the exact motion on the IR...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
another good link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html
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Clark
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No, but with a caveat. If you are talking about a system crossing a large mountain range, such as the Rockies, then you can see surface low pressure systems form (these are often called 'Colorado lows') as the vorticity (spin) associated with the mid/upper level feature is stretched vertically, potentially leading to a spin-up at the surface.
In the most general of cases, however, particularly for a feature in the tropics, mountains are not conducive to development of any surface feature, regardless of whether or not there is an upper low present.
Ryan -- way too early to tell, and I'm not even sure which feature you're looking at... The pattern doesn't favor anything coming from the south and getting that far north right now with any semblance of organization.
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Clark
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Latest QuikSCAT pass from ~3-4hr ago largely missed the center of the depression, but suggests some non-rain flagged 35-40kt wind vectors to the north and northeast of the center. The cloud pattern has not improved since the 5p advisory -- the convection has not drawn any closer to the center -- but I think we'll see this one upgraded to Irene at 11pm. In its favor are the comments from the 11a and 5p discussions towards this effect. The innards of the storm are healthy per the latest SSM/I microwave imager pass on the 37GHz band; the convective structures, however, aren't as healthy per all of the other bands & IR imagery. It's not the classic tropical storm by any means, but the fact that it is firing convection to the east of the center suggests that it is a lot closer than yesterday.
We'll see at 11p. No change to the forecast track thinking right now.
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Spoken
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Thanks for all the info, Clark (and Bill). I was mainly just wondering about the mountains of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. I was wondering if the "vorticity" (of this particular "ULL") might somehow be able to make use of those four islands and especially their mountains, in ramping-up 'what have you' from the surface, if the circulation in question continues to track more or less along the length of that collection of islands. Thanks again!
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Old Sailor
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QuikSCAT pass missed some of the depreesion, but think they still call it a TD, maybe if depression was closer to land they would upgrade it but they have lots of time ,,,other reason I feel may still listed as TD has been moving more west last few hours. But as you say guess we will see at 11PM... Then again they could be sick of calling it TD.
Dave
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Reaper
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Clark,
You should really listen to Sailor....Not only does he know more than anyone else on this forum, but I also found out this morning that he is my father.
I have been searching for so long too.....:)
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Clark
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Spoken -- not really. It's not a continuous chain of mountains, disturbing any effect like that, nor are the mountains particularly broad in nature. It's got to be something large like the Rockies to see any noticeable effect...there's little effect off of the Appalachians, for instance, and usually it helps if there is some sort of surface boundary to begin with.
Old Sailor -- no doubt about that. It did largely miss it, but there may be just enough evidence to go ahead and bump it. Guess we'll know in the next half-hour or so.
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FlaMommy
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ok i may be gulliable...but is he really your father....lol...if so i think its great...lol...sorry had to add my two cents...so what is this storm doing anyways? any chance of a north carolina/virginia hit?...my dad lives in virginia and im nervous 
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Random Chaos
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Well, the 10:30 (early again tonight!) is out, and it is still saying TD9, so they probably aren't upgrading it.
--RC
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Random Chaos
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Quote:
ok i may be gulliable...but is he really your father....lol...if so i think its great...lol...sorry had to add my two cents...so what is this storm doing anyways? any chance of a north carolina/virginia hit?...my dad lives in virginia and im nervous
Way to early to know. A lot depends on whether it cuts north through a weakness or decides to ignore it and keep heading west. If it goes north it won't do anything to the US, and will probably not strengthen past a Tropical Storm. If it heads east, it could strengthen rapidly since it will be hitting some good conditions before long. The models are all taking it north, but my personal opinion is never trust the models with a tropical system—they have ways of surprising even the best of models. Wait a few days before you start worrying. It is still well out to sea.
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Ron Basso
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Looks as though TD 9 is moving due west. The westerly shear is apparent on the color IR with the eastern convection blown way to the right. It still looks poorly organized with the LLC out in front of the deep convection. If it stays this weak, may have to think about shifting their track left (south).
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Clark
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Yeah, and the 11p discussion confirms that. Interestingly enough, no mention of the QuikSCAT pass in the discussion....not sure if they just decided to not mention it, or not use it altogether given the satellite appearance of the depression. Oh well.
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