Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Clark is a very good Meteorologist , He is one of the few on here that gives you the information without the added BS. He is ok in my book..
Don't think you are my son I have 3 of them ages 50,46,42 and a Daughter 51, not to mention 14 grandkids. 
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
How can they say its moving wnw if it went from 19 to 18.9 latitude in six hours. Sounds pretty stupid to me.
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Per the latest Discussion on TD 9.
They are not giving it any odds on staying a TD. And even lesser odds on intesifying.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/070228.shtml
Wishcasting - Act of "wishing" a storm would come your way to "add excitement". If you are really this bored, you need another hobby. This is not the thing to do. The cliché, "Don't wish too hard... You may get what you wish for", really applies here.
From the general definitions page.
http://flhurricane.com/general.php
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2005 10:57 PM)
|
Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
|
|
If I can speak from past experience your dad should be okay with this one. I used to live in the SE VA (tidewater) area. It is very rare for them to get hit, and when they do, the storms typically track through NC first. A direct hit on that area, while not impossible is highly improbable. While from time to time the remains that come through can bring damage, the effects tend to be from tree damage (on power lines, homes, etc). Meteorologically speaking, I can't tell you about this particular storm, but hopefully my personal experiences can set your mind at ease.
Just doing a quick search on the NOAA site, only 12 hurricanes have passed within 50 nautical miles of Virginia Beach.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html
|
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
|
|
Thank you so very much for that info that was nice....we watch alot of Family guy and i know the episode u got ur quote from..very good one... im just hoping that he doesnt get flooded out again...hes in the Gloucester Pt area...right by the water...
--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html
Great site! Thanks!
------------
GFS and aren't being kind to TD9, dissipating it within a few days and curving it north.
NOGAPS, on the otherhand, brings it stronger and keeps it heading west.
Will be interesting to see which model is more accurate.
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Can I put in a call for when the hurricane season resumes again.
TD 9 is nothing to look at really.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
here is a pix of the latest IR loop of TD 9 and while it is hard to pinpoint the exact center, this is where I think it is, see the black circle... if this be the case noticed the convection building on the NE side.... its also possible the center could be just west of this location but from the IR loop I think I'm close
here is the IR sat loop link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
here is the IR sat loop link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
|
Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
I was just looking at that Frank. It seems like the convection is "trying" to wrap around. But, it always seems to look better at night than during the day to me.
--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Just a correction Frank. If your center is the black circle, that convection would be on the NW portion....even better.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Steve, your absolutely right,... my bad, this was my first attempt to put an image in a post.... in my haste I should have stated NW and not NE....
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at this loop perhaps the center is still west of where I had put the center and the convection is actually NE of the center... I think the NE was right but I might have missed the center..... hard to tell.... another view for those as bored as I am
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
I wonder how much more that ULL will dig. If it runs 9 down it could kill it. On the other hand, it should get squeezed between Harvey and 9 and a piece of a ridge elongated SW to NE and may fill.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
not to mention all the dry air in front of it..... I'll tell you this, if it can get convection wrapped around the center it has a shot.. look at this loop... if the convection is NW of the center per this loop then TD 9 might have a shot... you be the judge
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
|
Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
Is it just me or has TD9, and most TDs look better at night?
--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
TD 9 is looking better tonight, though it is a little unclear as to where exactly the center is located -- as evidenced by the good discussion above. Continuity would place it just west of the current small blowup of convection, but there are signs of either multiple centers (with another to the north) or of the center reforming to the east. My best guess is that the center does agree with continuity and is just west of the convective blowup, while the "banding" feature you see is more indicative of the mid-level circulation. Still, it's an improvement. estimates were very low with Franklin and it was categorized higher...ditto Harvey...and given the QuikSCAT pass from earlier and the current convective blowup, I think we have Irene on our hands...figure the will concur at 5a. Nothing much to write home about, really, but another marker in the tallybook for this season.
As for storms looking better at night: it's due to a feature called the diurnal convective maximum. I can't explain it well, nor is there a very good explanation available online, but in general tropical convection tends to peak in the hours leading to daybreak (as opposed to continental convection, which tends to peak from mid-afternoon to sunset).
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
It's been my impression that models generally don't perform well with tropical depressions. In the sense that the models generally don't handle the relatively weak pressure and small size involved in a weak system. They can be good at picking out possible development, but often start creating systems out of thin air (though you can use those systems to point point *possible* activity).
Once a storm has developed, then the models can perform better with direction and where the storm will end up. TD 9 is a great example of that. The system is being sheared, but the shear isn't killing the storm, in fact, I'd be willing to say TD 9 was and still does have tropical storm force winds. So long as the system has developed storms, and have a good LLC, they're pretty durn hard to kill off unless they run into land or cooler waters. (that's not a scientific fact, just my observations)
Storms can open up into a wave, but that's actually fairly uncommon.
I think the sats are in eclipse or keyholed so we're not going to get a new pic for a little while, but the last fix I had on the center was just a hair due west of the blow up of storms at 3:15. We'll know more in the morning, though I still think it's a tropical storm 
-Mark
PS whoever developed this IR-RGB enhanced loop deserves a cookie, it's great, because you can still actually pick out the LLC if you pay attention....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
5 am advisory is out - center jumped north again and seems to think 9 will strengthen a bit in the next day...
Guess TD 9's on again and could be off again later I guess ... as weird as everything's been lately
Quote:
Satellite imagery indicates that the center of the depression has
re-formed north of the previous advisory position. The depression
is expected to move generally toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of the
depression during the night...and slow strengthening is possible
during the next 24 hours. The depression could become a tropical
storm later today or tonight.
'shana
|
Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg
Looking at the first visibles it shows the center much less exposed than in the past couple of days meaning that Irene may not be far to be named maybe later this morning or afternoon.
|
J.C.
Unregistered
|
|
Well looks like TD 9 may mature after all. Thing is, last night nobody, after the 11pm discussion gave this system a chance. & were dissipating the storm, now one of them is calling for it to become a hurricane in 4 days! track has it going wnw then turning n in the 5 day period. If this occurs, then this will be east of Bermuda a no threat to no land at all. Does this track and strenghth of this system seem correct due to the way the atmosphere is acting right now and can we put any confidence in ANY model at this time. J.C.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
