Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Kevin, it is interesting that you mentioned a lot of people being “bummed out” (as I am sure they are), and I kind of wanted to recognize that. I was feeling the exact same sentiments around certain individuals (not necessarily here), but I wager a surprise like this is infinitely better than something similar to what, say, hurricane “pulled” about a week from today last year. Interesting paradox.
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cheers
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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Quote:
Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here!  To me, it only had "that look" in the very beginning...anyway, we can agree to disgree...agreeably!
BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'…
Well, I'm personally uncertain as to what 'that look' might be. However, if immediately upon leaving Africa the next system was better organized than the previous system would its path tend to look any more 'linear' in appearance? I understand that such systems are ultimately driven wherever they’re driven. But if a better-organized system was cruising west along 10N would it be any more likely to head for Central America (for example) than for Greenland, all other factors being basically static?
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I personally wouldn't care if they all fizzled out after last year, unfortunately that won't happen 
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Gfdl dissipates TD9 in 18 hours , of course it 's only one model.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05080523
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Speed and direction coming off the cape are only a minor component. More important are mid or low level circulation and convection at some point. A lot of waves traverse the entire Atlantic before they have much convection, some are just barely visible on satellite. As far as direction, that is dependent on the strength of the system and the evnrionemnt around it. A weak wave is mostly affected by the low level environment, a stronger storm by the mid level, and a fully developed tropical system by the upper levels. The stronger the storm, the more the mid and upperr levels will affect the direction. If you just look at some animations of satellite images, you will see that at different levels the clouds move in sometimes completely oopposite directions. This is an extremely complex environemnt at any one moment. To get a feel for what is going on you have to look at lots and lots of information, and you have to look at it in 3D, height makes a difference, And height is defined by pressure, not by altitude, so it gets even more complex.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Fri Aug 05 2005 08:29 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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GFS is also disspating it. We'll see have to see if the other models follow suit.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
GFS is also disspating it. We'll see have to see if the other models follow suit.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Though disapating the system, I am not sure if this run is entirely good news.
I may be mistaken, but it appears to me that though the reduces it to a wave, I think the track is more important. It takes the storm east of the Bahamas (and those warm waters) moving towards the west @ the end of the period. So while the intensity is good news, perhaps (and I am no met) the track may not be.
(As a sidenote, BAMMs did a shift more west this last run)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Ralph, I did not say the storm was going to follow one of the BAMM models. I was merely bringing up a change in one of the forecast models, as over the next few days that is primarily what weather watchers will be doing, watching the models, watching the shifts. That's all.
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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Thank you.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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I was just stating to the guy who said when i posted what that model said he jumped right in and said that model is not good and to discount it since it had it going north atg the time.
So i was wondering if now its a ok model since it has it going more west is all.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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It's not that BAMM is bad - it has its own set of biases that were being specifically referred to.
Your sarcasm does little to improve your knowledge. A little more open-mindedness would not be a bad thing. You might just learn something 
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Ok, Ralph, I gotcha.
You'll find a lot of people here with a lot of various interpretations of the models. Personally, I take them all with a grain of salt. They'll be jumping around over the next couple of days a lot. With all of the factors coming into play (riding, shear, SAL, etc), I don't really know if there is such a thing as a "good" model. These things are just for guidance and to bring up interesting possibilities, it's the mets who are the most dependable when it comes to tracks.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Hello folks and fella weather watchers. I do not have all the meterology vocabulary so I am going to tell it like I see it and hopefully the worst thing that will happen to me is some one will laugh. But, I took a good look at a marvelous speeded up time lapsed satellite loop and it seems to me that over the last few days of loops, all of the layers of the atmosphere are merely running into each other fighting to gain a particular direction. If I am seeing this correctly, that explains the models being all over the place on these storms. It is obvious to the naked eye that an atmospheric pattern will start and it will be met with an equally determined pattern from another direction. From a amateur viewpoint, it looks like the various guiding currents are playing bumper cars and no one in particular is winning at this time. God only help us if it smoothes out in the direction of the Caribbean, the US, Mexico or Canada. I don't know how Europe handles these storms because they are usually somebody else by the time they get to England or France.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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The latest AFD fro TLH/TAE mention eyes will watch the GOM for the next few days..... But being close to land, doesn't give it much of a chance, except for a lot of rain over the Panhandle. I think the was trying to spinn up something in this area, now the is too, but appears a little too much.
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED TO A POSITION ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN
ABLE TO ANALYZE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE TODAY,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST S OF PNS. IS ACTUALLY
MONITORING THIS FEATURE PER THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
ALTHOUGH THEY MENTION THAT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST OVER THE SHORT TERM. ALL OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING RIGHT AT THE COAST, BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON SUN. WHETHER THE LOW EVER DEVELOPS ANY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT, THE CIRCULATION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
MOIST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION.
.MARINE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW TO THE W. IF IT DEVELOPS LIKE THE , AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WE WILL MENTION THE LOW IN THE SYNOPSIS AND
BEGIN TO TREND THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST UP JUST A BIT BEGINNING
SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WON'T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE /WAVEWATCH
JUST YET.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Stormhunter - In your own opinion, will the problem in the GOM be a problem for south florida or is this something that will remain north of Sarasota? I am doubting a tropical system at this point, but could we see a lot of rain? Thanks for all your good info, keep it up?
(certain posts have been deleted or placed in the Graveyard - let it go at that)
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 05 2005 10:38 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Any ideas on the GOM mess??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Just read back to the posts to see them they are there.
On some forums there were serious wobble wars between Texans and Floridians. I try not to wishcast for the opposite reason, I don't want to jinx my chances at getting a storm. So until something's on top of me, I'm not calling it to come here (usually). I saw someone mention Dr. Gray's forecast. The thing that sticks out at me is the ACE index of 235. That's record territory for overall seasonal intensity if it verifies. I think a lot of people figured that this would be more of an average year after the insane 2004 storm season. But Dr. Gray's ACE predicts 6 more intensity points than were observed. So we'll see.
As far as the tropics, I think we're just going to see a few named storms here and there before the season revs up in a couple of weeks. And when it does, it might go full throttle for 4 or 5 weeks, slow back and then peak again during October. If you consider there have been 6 storms already in the Gulf of Mexico, you'd think that was a banner year for the Gulf. But we'll probably see 9 or more* (not an official forecast, JMO). That's a crazy number and a rarity.
The 1014 low that's along the surface trof south of FL is interesting. JB progged something to form south of LA last week, but other than the trof remaining draped across the northern GC and adjacent waters, it hasn't spun up anything organized. There has been a suface low every day (per NWS plots) alternating between Morgan City and around Destin. Sometimes the surface reflection has been overland, other times over water. But whatever it is dies down over night until another area spawns up the next day. The Gulf is plenty warm enough for low level feedback, and with some of the energy from the former Invest 93L a few hundred miles SE of the low and moving again, there might be a spark to get something rolling. I'd give it < 30%, but some stronger rains and storms might result Saturday and Sunday because of the additional influx of tropical energy. Some places on the Panhandle got 4+" today. And while there's not a really good chance for development, odds are that there will be plenty more rain to go around tomorrow.
FWIW, NAO's been semi predictive/concurrent with some of this season's activity. As noted last month, we're at about 50% of this year's named named storms forming as it crossed the 0 line (most recently Harvey). That's something to probably watch as the season wears on not only for future tracks but for identification of pattern changes where development could occur.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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I would say that with all the tropical moisture in place - yeah there will be rain all around the state of Fla for next few days. Basically.... If the sun comes out and it warms up temps wise, then there is a good chance for rain and thunderstorms. I read yesterday that record amounts of lightning had occured in Florida. But with this low now in northern GOM..off the panhandle ( image link: surface )
lots of moisture should be pumped in off the gulf until this moves out.
i would check your local WFO webpage for a local detailed forecast.
Just read the 11pm disc about TD 9.....you can clearly see a big low level circulation on floater 2, but as for storms they appear to be to the southeast of center. Shear is present due to the ULL to the north..... i wonder if a part of the system will make over to the northern islands?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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NOGAPS has TD#9 in 96 hours heading off to the northeast with a pressure of about 1012-1016, that strenghtens a litle before it makes a northwest turn out to sea...im gonna have to agree with on that one, but the wave behind it is defintaley worth watching,. and so is TD#9 until it turns off like Harvey and Franklin
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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