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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Tropical Storm Irene Forms
      #46828 - Sun Aug 07 2005 11:48 AM

another onee on our handss..winds of Irene are at 40 mph with a pressure of 1005mb located at 20.5N 45.5W moving west-northwest at 9 MPH

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: Ryan]
      #46831 - Sun Aug 07 2005 11:54 AM

what do people think she'll do, turn off to sea, affect northeast, affect canada, or what?


-Ryan

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Sun Aug 07 2005 11:54 AM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: Ryan]
      #46834 - Sun Aug 07 2005 12:32 PM

I think Irene will turn out to sea. I'm fairly certain of that now. The persistent northerly center reformations that have occured over the last day or so have effectively killed any chance of Irene coming westward. I had some small doubts about recurvature yesterday, but the recent events have satisfied those doubts.

To be very honest, Irene's chances of a US landfall ended on Friday morning. The increasing shear and significant center reformation (12 N to nearly 17 N) ended any major US threat from Irene. To add to that, a storm in the process of recurving along with a storm developing in the deep tropics generally isn't a good pattern for the developing system to get very far west. The stage needs to be clear, so to speak.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: Kevin]
      #46848 - Sun Aug 07 2005 01:57 PM

franklin, harvey and irene going out in the central atlantic may be establishing one of the recurvature pathways in the atlantic. that persisting through the expected active span with MJO may be a good thing. then again the basin is showing signs of a pattern change, so it may be a whole different ballgame in another week.
HF 1757z07august


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: HanKFranK]
      #46850 - Sun Aug 07 2005 02:12 PM

NAO can also provide helpful clues as to what the ridging in the western Atlantic will be like. Two different forms of modelling that I look at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.html
(MRF)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
(Ensemble)

As far as the ensemble goes, looks like we're split between negative or positive NAO. Guess we'll find out...


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: HanKFranK]
      #46856 - Sun Aug 07 2005 03:05 PM

"that persisting through the expected active span with MJO may be a good thing." I checked the several glossorys but couldn't find a definition of MJO. Anyone help please?

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #46860 - Sun Aug 07 2005 04:19 PM

MJO is the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Good faq on what exactly that means from the cpc:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/intraseasonal_faq.html

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 07 2005 04:34 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Brief Thoughts on Irene [Re: Ryan]
      #46954 - Mon Aug 08 2005 10:40 PM

The circulation behind departing (or looping?) extratropical Harvey and an upper level low near 33N 31W are building a ridge southward along 55W. This will place TD Irene under some northerly shear. An upper level high (300mb) is expected to cut off near 20N 60W. If Irene can survive the shear it will be interesting to see if this developing ridge will force her on more of a westerly or even west southwesterly course for the next two or three days. The shear is forecast to slowly weaken and the dry air ahead of her to modify with time. If she can survive the next couple of days, Irene could be around for quite some time.
Cheers,
ED


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