disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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I forget where I heard it, it may have been from JB, but since this depression was starting to form I've heard that if it stayed weak it would move more to the west whereas quick development would make it easier for it to be caught up in the trough and move north. This seems to be JB's continuing thought process as well. Is Irene's weakening (assuming she doesn't fall apart entirely) sort of a bad thing in that respect? Is this still the case? I'd rather have a strong storm moving out to sea than a wave moving our direction that will hit favorable conditions as it goes. I'm hoping that it still ends up a fish spinner.
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Edubrasileiro
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
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Is this not a clear closed surface circulation, with showers completely surrounding it?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
I forget where I heard it, it may have been from JB, but since this depression was starting to form I've heard that if it stayed weak it would move more to the west whereas quick development would make it easier for it to be caught up in the trough and move north. This seems to be JB's continuing thought process as well. Is Irene's weakening (assuming she doesn't fall apart entirely) sort of a bad thing in that respect? Is this still the case? I'd rather have a strong storm moving out to sea than a wave moving our direction that will hit favorable conditions as it goes. I'm hoping that it still ends up a fish spinner.
You're pretty much on track with your reasoning. Less developed storms are more shallow systems and thus they are steered more by the low level wind fields. In the tropics, these wins are easterly. As a system deepens, the upper level environment has a more profound effect. Most of our numerical models strongly weight the upper level features in determining track. The models don't usually do a good job with intensity, so if a storm weakens suddenly (or strenghtens) they take a bit of time to catch up. With Irene, along with Franklin and Harvey, because these systems were relatively weak and sheared, track forecasting is more difficult.
The in the 5 PM discussion points out the problems with the long range guidance with a weak storm (Irene). I think JB probably thinks the storm will remain weak and not turn NW. We shall see.
AND THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK NOW
SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS THAT WERE EASTERN OUTLIERS THIS MORNING...
SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ... HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM
OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN AT THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS INDICATIVE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT
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RJB
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Rob1966
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Cooper City Florida
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RJB-
Which "field" should I select to see the track you are referencing? Thanks
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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Don't know if this is in the models or not but it looks like Irene is in for the same 'hammer milling' Franklin and Harvey received on their trip northeast along the coast. I'm not a machinist but one type of 'hammer mill' has a cross with pivoting hammers at the ends. Basically the stuff getting hammered passes underneath. In this case the hammers are a succession of fronts emerging from North America into the skies over the Atlantic while (ordinarily) pivoting more or less around the Arctic. The stuff getting hammered appears to include storms like Franklin and Harvey. The result of the hammering seems to be shear. Not sure how accurate that analogy really is but that's what the images have me imagining.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
Incidentally today's images appear to include a portion of the satellite that took them – perhaps part of its dish or something. Maybe it turned to get a little better look at the space shuttle's reentry (which was rescheduled due to weather).
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The support for that statement was the sat imagery showing the LLC moving due west.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Looking at the visible it look almost a little south of west now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Edubra:
Scroll back to some of the posts earlier today; HF and others discussed that interesting little feature. The mentioned it in the 805 tropical discussion:
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
65W-67W...AND IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 62W-64W.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
RJB-
Which "field" should I select to see the track you are referencing? Thanks
Sorry for the delay. The home page has some model links at the bottom. Here is one.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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RJB
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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I noticed that feature earlier today appear to 'grab an arm' of a system moving NNE across Hispaniola. The feature now seems to be 'rising upwards' to perhaps meet with the rest of the 'donor system' somehow – though I'd imagine it's in for a surprise if it follows that 'train of systems' into the . But also the feature seems to have formed connections with a system moving east across northern South America. You can currently click on the fifth little green square from the left to omit the (black) 17:15 UTC image in the following sequence.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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lets say Irene does follow the predicted path, Harvey and Franklin already had the turning factor by now, so what is Irene going to turn out to sea or stay on course and possibly affect the northeast or Canada?, im just wondering what poeple opinions on Irene for now, please lemme know
Ryan 
PS-i hope the weather clears up for Discovery to land tomorrow
also, Jim Cantore just said at 10:45 Irene only a TD but the US isnt completely out of under the gun(if that made sense)..ill have to watch the the tropical update!
Stay Safe, Have Fun Doing It
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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two consecutive runs of euro are bringing irene across now. the model probably keeps it too weak in the near term though. fact stands though, most of the globals have shifted west. i'm not ready to buy into irene making it across... still think it goes out (and stalls) near bermuda. the setup is potentially there, however.
weak low in the ne caribbean from earlier is just that.. weak and helpless. nice comment MM relating it to emily 1999. it's a tight low-level swirl with no .. maybe it's also a relative of TD 4 from 2000? well, lots of shear ahead... no chance.
that weak low i was commenting on now se of irene... the other night i said it might do some fujiwhara thing.. well, the tracks were as such today. irene sort of pivoted around it.. probably a function of upper steering.. but still kind of cool. there's a wind surge, saharan air burst.. and oncoming wave which should crunch the little swirl near 17/50. wave axis has a broad turning near the se of there. if there wasn't a ton of subsidence near the center we'd be talking about an up and coming invest. it may look more impressive as it works further west.. nothing doing right now. more waves marching off. none looking like slam-dunk developers... which in a way could work out for the worse. early developers usually recurve.. negative-phase can activate them further west when it gets cranking, potentially.
home brew option still open, for probably the seventh or eighth day. if that mean trough position had been a couple hundred miles west we'd have seen something already. as is, still low potential for cyclogenesis along the southeast coast, but nothing too happening.
eastpac is trying to blow two systems right now... and has been showing active waves for about a week. the atlantic response should be days away now.
HF 0249z09august
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The has Irene heading to the SC coast,, I agree not buying into that one yet .......One reason for that track to happen if Irene remains a TD or min TS...
Dave
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Shear is gradually improving across the basin as well. The upper-low that has been affecting Irene is about to get kicked out by the same system that grabbed Harvey; at the very least, it should kick it far enough north to keep it out of the tropical basin for awhile. The upper-low near the Bahamas is riding along the west side of a developing ridge across the western Atlantic, while the connected cell over the Yucutan shows signs of weakening and moving NW. Ridging has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean and out into the tropical Atlantic, with signs of this becoming more prevalent across the basin.
Models suggest a low might become cut-off over the central Atlantic near 35N/50W late in the week -- from the UKMET and showing a midlatitude low diving south and cutting off to the showing Irene recurving and getting stuck -- which could help set up a pattern to allow a lot of the waves to recurve as they develop if it reaches far enough south, or could just set up a blocking pattern to allow for the pattern to maintain itself for a long period of time. They also suggest another trough might become established across the eastern part of the basin...with the pattern we're in now and potentially forecast to stay in looking a lot like early June did. We'll just have to see this weekend.
While Irene is pretty far north and still a bit more likely to get sent out to sea than turned back to the west, anything that gets going down the line is going to have a better shot at getting across. If nothing else, Irene & the waves down to the south should help moisten the central Atlantic a tad. Everything is moving into place for something to kick up in about a week, from the basin-wide conditions on down to the climatological and intraseasonal factors. kicks up about three systems over the next 6 days in the EPac; there's some support for at least 1-2 storms in the other models as well. Give it a few more days and the Atlantic should follow suit, if not to an even greater degree given what we've seen this season.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Well, Irene is looking good on satellite this morning and wouldn't be surprised if she gets upgraded today. Tropical models have shifted west further. Let's see what the setup will be 4 days out on the eastern seaboard before saying whether it will afffect any land areas, but its becoming increasingly possible. Off to work. Cheers!!
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I agree. The IR and the first visuals from this morning definately indicate the storm is strengthening. It almost appears that the center is no longer exposed, but is located underneath the main area of convection.
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Good morning all! Irene looks a little more impressive this morning with a new flair up near the center of the storm. Now that the storm has a less amount of shear and perhaps and little more oceanic heat to work with, does this explain the new round of convection? Also as an untrained eye the convection seems to be close enough to the center that the center is not detectable on Sat pictures. Models also now beginning to bring this system closer to the US east coast. Should people along the east coast from say SC to New England pay more attention to this system or is it still just a Bermuda event?
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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The is looking more pumped up this morning. From within Africa to out in the Atlantic convection has been picking up. Is it a sign to come? Most likely as we are approaching the heart of the season and the should be favorable pretty soon. It won't be long till we will be tracking many names. Everybody should be prepared this season. It's going to be a wild one. 
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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This may be a little off topic, but the shuttle just landed flawlessly in California. To keep it on topic, I will mention that it landed in CA because of all of the unsettled weather around Florida, especially off of the East Coast. I'm on vacation (hanging around the house) and dying to go fishing with the family, but the unsettled weather is keeping us in port. Looks like decent surf will be in our future, especially if Irene can build. Let's just hope it actually curves.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I too have noticed the westward shift of the numerical models on Irene. The BAM series now take the storm toward the east coast of Florida while the global models turn her NW toward Bermuda. What's interesting though, is that both the UKMET and stall the storm near Bermuda and then move her due west toward the Carolinas on the last day of their run - with both models showing a building ridge north of storm that turns her west. In addition, , , and the never intialize a storm & pretty much keep it an open wave. Lot's of uncertainty still in the final track and intensity. I'm not ready to write her off yet as a fish-spinner.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&Year=2005
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RJB
Edited by Ron Basso (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:43 AM)
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