Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i could see advisories being issued in Brrmuda..but where else?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am not worried yet,but I am really watching this one.If it makes it to about 67W,it could rapidly intenceify,there is little or no shear there and water temps are about 87 degrees.It is hard not to think of Andrew when looking at Irene.But it still is to early to know though.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
Anbody got any data on the track of storms that have hit the NE? My recollection is that they have come up the coast...see this link on LI hurricane history:
http://longisland.about.com/cs/weather/a/hurricane_past_2.htm
and not from this direction. Wouldn't recurving be a huge issue for this possible track?
recurving would reallly affect the track Ed but i mean not all the storms affecting LI or the NE have traveled upt he coast.
Bob in Ft.Lauderdale..i dont think this will be another storm like Andrew..i mean there is litle evidence of rapid intesification and littee possibility for a turn toward florida by now
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Tue Aug 09 2005 03:30 PM)
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Brad in Miami
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"lit[tl]e possibility for a turn toward florida by now"
I don't know about that one. Yes, the odds are against it, but with a storm whose intensity is very much in the air and several of the tropical models now pointing towards Florida, I wouldn't bet too much against a weak storm making its way in the general direction of the Bahamas and Florida. (Of course, reaching either of them is an additional step away.)
Again, it's not the most likely scenario, but it's still days too early to discount the possibility.
(And technically, it wouldn't really be a "turn toward Florida," but rather a failure to turn away from Florida.)
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I think the or whoever is banking on the TD to stay east of any ridging that build near the east coast later this weekend, thereby nudging TD Irene to the NW and N. At least I hope so, 'cause if she stays south of 26/27N at 70W we could have a problem along the SE coast, particularly if the HPC is correct on building a ridge on the east coast. As I mentioned yesterday, I have preferred the BAM M since Irene's development due to its consistency, and I'm eyeing that model right now, though I think the shallower of the BAMs is the BAM D. The plot is definitely thickening though and we need to watch carefully as a turn out to sea is not a certainty. Cheers!!
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Looking at the Visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
I think that Irene will be a TS soon looking at the Sat. image.
Seems to have banding features and outflow.
Should be fun to watch.
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Beaumont, TX
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I find it interesting that everyday the thinking on what Irene might or might not do changes. Only certainty is there is a depression out there that needs to be watched. My question is if she did hit the East Coast how far down the road would that be?
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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anyone watch jbs update? pretty scary stuff.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Please elaborate what JB's video has to say.
Thanks.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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My question is if she did hit the East Coast how far down the road would that be?
I would think early to mid next week, but I could be wrong at that.
For anyone who did not watch Joe Bastardi's video today, I highly recommend it. It is 13 minutes long, and he really lays down a distinct possibility (if only 's 'updates' were like this). The most recent satellite imagery shows a good looking storm, and I may be somewhat disappointed if it is not given TS status in a later advisory.
Here is the link to JB. Click on tropical update:
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
EDIT: Guys... I posted the link.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 05:02 PM)
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
anyone watch jbs update? pretty scary stuff.
send me the link for that please
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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So Lysis, after teasing us with mentioning JBs video, what was his basic take on Irene?
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RJB
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Who is JB and how do u see him Have wondered this for awhile and it also looks like irene should be a TS soon and has convection all around her and banding feature are loot better. Also it indicationg a North carolina Hurricane threat. The convection near the Cape Verdes is also worth watching now.
Edited by NONAME (Tue Aug 09 2005 05:02 PM)
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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His take on Irene was that the Carolina to NE need to stay tuned, but he did not discount the idea of Florida. What I see on the 12Z runs is that the and are pretty close in their solutions of sneaking Irene through a hole between a finger of a ridge from the Central Atlantic and a building ridge near the east coast at about hour 54 - 60. If that's going to happen Irene needs to get farther north during the next 2 days. In fact, this is so close that the , if taken literally, has the high pressure center about 75 miles west of Irene (not too likely). The has Irene slipping N and the high building to the SW of her. Very close call. IF Irene does not get as far north as the models show and gets under the building east coast ridge as SHOWN ON THE , she will get blocked from moving northward as the high continues to build over the SE coast. I capped the only because its what that model shows as far as ridging. The EC is near the east coast but further north and never touching land. That's JB and my own obs, Cheers!!
Edited by Steve H1 (Tue Aug 09 2005 05:11 PM)
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Ed in Va
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Thanks for your summary and having the perserverance to get through his update...I gave up after 11 mins.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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What is the Eye like Feature in irene is that the low level center I know it cant be a eye though sence it is only a depression. Also when is Recon going to go out there?
It is just an artifact of the convective pattern...nothing to be worried about. Recon is not scheduled to go out to the storm until Friday at the earliest as of right now. With it being no immediate threat to land and the amount of money finite for an entire season's worth of flights, there's no pressing need to head into the storm. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Tue Aug 09 2005 05:32 PM)
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Clark
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The HPC is the backup center for the . If the were for some reason unable to issue advisories on any given storm, the HPC would take over responsibility. From time to time, they will test the backup systems when there is a non-threatening storm out there, such as Irene is now, and that is likely what they have done this morning. NWS offices and all other branches of the government have a backup system in place....pretty smart if you ask me.
As for Irene...it's about where we thought it would be 5 days ago at this point, but the means to the end have been completely different. The intensity isn't there, the structure isn't there, and the steering flow pattern isn't there yet. There are signs the storm might turn back more towards the west with time...so we'll have to see how this one plays out. track to 3 days and the overall intensity forecast look good; the 4 and 5 day track is probably a little too fast and too far north. A slow drift WNW-NW is more likely, IMO, at this point.
As for JB's update vs. /others -- you'll never see any other media source go for anywhere near 13 minutes on a discussion. There's not that much to talk about out there, really. The potential is there for it to head back towards the west before curving up near the coast, while the potential is also there for it just to linger around the Atlantic for some time. No possibility can be discounted at this point. As myself and others have mentioned here, the factors and probabilities change all the time with these storms...but you can never discount anything until it happens.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Irene is a storm where yoiu have to "wait and see", as orf right now JB says anywhere from the carolinas northward should really watch Irene, but florida isnt out of the picture yet. The European models have Irene going into the carolinas i mean theres so many possibilities for her so all we can do is....
...
...
wait and see
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I wouldnt worry about florida or the east coast till maybe tomorrow evening if she is still under 24N and 60W. I said here last week that with everyone and the models taking this out to sea near 50 W that it could stay weak and move more west then by mid-late week (this week) that we could find a strong system or hurricane just east of the bahamas near 70W. Well I think it will be now Friday but still we dont know if it will get under that ridge off the Se U.S. For now expect Irene to move wnw (possibly reorganizing her center with the midlevel low to her east) and taking a path towards the NW by Weds and heading towards bermuda.
I do agree with JB that she should become a storm again and if she does stay south and heads for the Bahama area then it will become a hurricane and strong 1 at that....For now, the option of heading towards the bermuda area is the best bet until later tomorrow we will see.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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unless the center is under the mid-level low, i see nothing more than a depression being sheared into a wave, similar to Erin in 2001
is there a reason btw that the HPC is issuing Irene advisories?
Edited by Rabbit (Tue Aug 09 2005 06:00 PM)
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