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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
      #46858 - Sun Aug 07 2005 03:57 PM

Tropical Depression #9 has managed to hold together and is now Tropical storm Irene. The earliest I storm by 13 days. Irene is expected to stay away from land, and be a concern only to the fish and shipping interests.



It's still not holding together well, so I don't expect it to strengthen much, at least for a few days.

Harvey continues it's movement out to sea as well.

There is a flare up near the Bahamas, but the upper air patterns around it won't allow for development, so not much will happen with it.

Outside of the two storms being tracked, there isn't much going on, Thankfully.



Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)

Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Model Plot of Irene (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MikeC]
      #46859 - Sun Aug 07 2005 04:00 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: oil trader]
      #46861 - Sun Aug 07 2005 04:40 PM

IRENE not looking good, 5pm out
trying to hold together....

.....REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: MikeC]
      #46863 - Sun Aug 07 2005 05:12 PM

What would have to happen over time for the system over the Bahamas to transform into a tropical storm? I understand that there is shearing wind, and that the spin is in the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, the convection has been hanging in there and I did watch the spin moving up to the convection that was already in place. Finally how are the pressures in that area compared to the air pressures over Florida at this time. I noticed the NWS frontal lines but they do not extend to the Bahamas.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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mbrown
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Brandon, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: MikeC]
      #46864 - Sun Aug 07 2005 05:13 PM

On current GOES Floater 2 visible image of irene there is a circulation southeast of center. Is this a low level circulation? Dual circulations? will one win out over the other?

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: MikeC]
      #46865 - Sun Aug 07 2005 05:47 PM

Just wondering - heard TWC and the locals talking about the Bermuda High that funeled the storms to us last year may set up the same this year. I know that is not the only variable. Still learning - but I know that isn't the only thing that determines the canes directions. Question is - does that make a hugh difference? I'm also wondering about the stuff showing up in the bahamas...... I want to learn. Still new at this - but I've been a weather watcher since I was a kid.

Hoot


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: mbrown]
      #46866 - Sun Aug 07 2005 05:48 PM

GFS is trying to take Irene on an anti-cyclonic loop in the atlantic. NOGAPS doesn't, but still sends it north. And GDFL is ripping it appart.

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J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: mbrown]
      #46867 - Sun Aug 07 2005 06:13 PM

After watching the Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop, I see a distinct turning to the southeast of where the 5 pm adv position called it. Could it be possible that what I see is another LLC begining to form? If it is, it also appears to be moving slowly almost due west. Also the ULL near the Bahamas looks to be sliding under the cloud mass that has been off and on over the last couple of day's. Does anyone know if this system could transition down to the surface if the convection in the area continues to fire up?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: mbrown]
      #46870 - Sun Aug 07 2005 06:56 PM

What you see to the SE of Irene is the old mid-level circulation. There is no surface reflection and, while a mid-level center can sometimes spin-up a new low-level feature, no indications of this occuring. The low-level center continues to be the feature identified by the NHC in the 5p advisory and is now seeing some convection fire near & over the center at this time. However, if the center were to reform further to the SE, it'd be a whole new ballgame with regards to this one, so we'll watch it...just be advised that it isn't likely at this time.

Wind shear is lessening over the storm, per UWisconsin satellite estimates, though overall is still marginal for development. The system should continue WNW for the next day or two before slowing and likely turning northward with time, with some slow strengthening possible.

Harvey is about to meet with its maker and start undergoing extratropical transition. It is the upper-low/shortwave trough just to the southwest of the storm that will provide the impetus for ET to occur, which it should complete in fairly short order. It'll be out of our hair in about a day, then head off towards Europe.

Conditions across the rest of the basin are gradually becoming more favorable for development. Weak ridging is present across much of the tropical Atlantic, with the trough along the west coast of Africa beginning to lift out. Irene's tango with the upper-low has kept the upper-low somewhat at bay; there are indications of the upper-level feature weakening as well. The TUTT cell pinwheeling through the Bahamas is beginning to lift NW, though the overall troughiness remains across the western Atlantic W of 65 W and into the Gulf of Mexico...don't see that part changing for awhile given the current synoptic regime. Things'll probably get kicking again in the next week or so...for now, time to enjoy a little respite.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: mbrown]
      #46871 - Sun Aug 07 2005 07:02 PM

This was discussed earlier in other threads. That is a mid level circulation to the SE. There was speculation on if that mid level came down to the surface if it would still be conidered Irene, or a new storm, that is if the LLC holds together with some convection and keeps on to the WNW. The mid level circulation seems to be mostly stationary at the moment. As of the last visibles I didn't see any low level with it, and we'll probably have to wait until the first visibles in the morning. I find it very interesting to watch these storms that can't quite get their act together.

Bill


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: BillD]
      #46874 - Sun Aug 07 2005 07:11 PM

Looks like there is a new burst of convection over the low level center now.

(I guess that this one-liner has relevance if it is in response to BillD)
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 07 2005 07:32 PM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #46878 - Sun Aug 07 2005 07:39 PM

Irene Has reform her center a couple of time is it possible that it could reform to the south and travel on more of a southernly track and is there any forcast tracks for Irene past 5 days?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Notes - Again [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #46879 - Sun Aug 07 2005 07:45 PM

Since we have a new thread, it is probably worthwhile to repeat a post from the previous thread.

"For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:

"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."

The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way. Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this."

I was reminded by some of you that since the site has a direct link to the NHC (to the left, at the bottom), we tend to refrain from repeating the NHC bulletins - the site updates the NHC info as soon as it is received. Its okay to quote a section of it to illustrate the point that you are trying to convey.
ED


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: NONAME]
      #46881 - Sun Aug 07 2005 08:31 PM

On this loop you can see the convection building on the NW side of the center and in addition, convection banding towards the center on the eastern side.... the mid level circulation that was off to the SE appears to be weaking or fading somewhat... its possible this next round of new convection could re-establish a new mid level center and perhaps it will be stacked closer to the LLC, it will never develop otherwise... just speculating on my part from what I can perceive off the IR sat loop.... still looks pretty disorganized but a little better than it was earlier today... it still looks to be moving off to the WNW... no change there

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: Frank P]
      #46882 - Sun Aug 07 2005 08:35 PM

Irene really looks to be getting her tropical "butt" kicked. She is fighting with some new convection on the NW side, I just don't know if it will be enough. Does anyone know when the shear is supposed to start subsiding ( I hope it doesn't though)?

Also, here is an interesting link to better understand how Low's and High's work with hurricanes.
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: Frank P]
      #46883 - Sun Aug 07 2005 08:37 PM

Frank. I noticed that CIMSS was actually bumping Irene up a tenth of a point, with regard to the Dvorak Numbers.
I was surprised to see that. As Irene looks to take home the most sheared, and stiil alive Tropical System of 2005 award.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: Floridacane]
      #46884 - Sun Aug 07 2005 08:46 PM

that new convection on the NW is getting sheared as it develops... the dry air out in front of this thing is amazing ... check out the water vapor loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: danielw]
      #46885 - Sun Aug 07 2005 08:50 PM

Yeah Danny, go to this web page and run the loop on the thermal infrared sat pix on the right side of the page under the section titled "Select Images and Channels to view" pick channel 4... the fact that its still alive fighting all the shear and dry air is indeed pretty amazing....

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


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wulrich
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land [Re: Floridacane]
      #46888 - Sun Aug 07 2005 09:09 PM

Everybody keeps saying that she is getting her butt kicked, yet it is still ALIVE and kicking.

I've must have seen 30 times all ready where people think its going to just go away.

This puppy MUST mean business if she has been able to resist the amount of shear and dry air she's encountered over the past week.

She's got one helluva chance if she keeps up this momentum.

--------------------
Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Irene and Shear [Re: Frank P]
      #46889 - Sun Aug 07 2005 09:14 PM

It almost appears that the convection on the NE Quadrant is being sucked away by the ULL.

On another note. Strange... area of convection just NE of the Lesser Antilles...in an area of Dry Air?
Best seen on the RAMSDIS WV Loop.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/16.jpg


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