rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Assuming Irene will remain a TS (out 72 hours) I wonder if the BAM models would be accurate for tropical storms.
I still see this storm heading west-but I really haven;t seen much success with BAMS solutions this season.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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susieq
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Loc: Panhandle
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Is there any chance this Irene could make it into the Gulf?
about the same as the chance eminem will win at the country music awards. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 09 2005 01:29 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The rule of thumb is be aware, until the storm has dissapated, gone past your lattitude/longitude/ or has made landfall far enough away that all you will get is rain. No one can say what a storm will do out at 53.6W except educated guesses. It is too far away to bother anyone. on the US mainland.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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HanKFranK
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irene is plodding west this morning under a progressively weaker shear pattern. franklin did the disco this morning and he's always conservative, but irene should be upgraded later today. i'm kind of scracthing my head on the forecast track as it takes irene right through the center of a 500mb ridge axis. the globals that don't kill irene are stalling the center near bermuda then drifting it west in 4-5 days. notable that builds a longwave ridge near the east coast going into next week... if irene is still under that it'll be paying a visit. i'm going to hold off on calling for recurvature anymore until i see the storm get through that first ridge... the track through it looks spurious... and the shortwave being progged to get irene isn't very substantial and isn't going to dig.
other features to eyeball... wave nearing 50w has all of its convection away from the axis. weak swirl trailing irene is becoming indistinct. weak low in the ne caribbean now south of d.r., under about 20kt of shear. signature is still apparent, but the shear should kill it today. two clusters (one near 35-40w, another near 20w).. likes neither, likes both. convection is still largely inhibited in the eastern atlantic. home brew chances still very low as the weak low remains parked near the ga/al border with a trough axis dangling into the gulf... little convergence off the east coast. the shortwave moving by may trigger something, but it would be a coast-runner.
news on the pattern evolution is... upper trough in the western caribbean appears to be finally weakening, and the western part of the basin is becoming more favorable for development. the westpac is still active and after rising to near neutral took another plunge... maybe a last gasp before negative anomalies shift east at last. the eastpac has activated as evidenced by the depression is tracking well southwest of the baja. timer usually works that the atlantic will respond in 6-10 days... august 15-20 timeframe in this case.
HF 1341z09august
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Reaper
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LOL...The direction Country music has been headed lately, I would discount that possiblilty so easily...
On subject....Is that area of convection around 10N-50W part of the same wave as IRENE???
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B.C.Francis
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Interesting that the BAMM model RUN AT 8am, has it heading west and a little north of west heading close to the N Bahamas in 72 hours. What I`m wondering does it have chance and if no, what is going to pick it up and throw it out to the fish......Weatherchef......... web page
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Wxwatcher2
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Still don't think IRENE is much of a threat to the U.S. but certainly the storm has stayed together well enought to reform and strengthen.
The more West it comes, the more attention IRENE will get.
Not time to run to the Home Depot just yet however.
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abyrd
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Quote:
I'm on vacation (hanging around the house) and dying to go fishing with the family, but the unsettled weather is keeping us in port. Looks like decent surf will be in our future, especially if Irene can build. Let's just hope it actually curves.
No need to stay in port. Seas 2-3. Easy fishing weather.
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ftlaudbob
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I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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FlaMommy
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Good Morning all....i was wondering about the wave in the Carribean, has anyone put their thoughts on that yet and if so where can i find that...thanks,becky 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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nl
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anyone have that bam model link?
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Ron Basso
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Definitely better organized with convection over center and some slight banding features appearing. Still looks a little asymmetrical and the center looks to be on the west side of the . Probably upgraded to a weak tropical storm today. I don't see any rapid deepening since there is still light northerly shear and a relatively dry atmosphere. Plenty warm SSTs though. On the track, if she gets stronger, than it'll probably follow the globals (UKMET & ) which initialized her as a storm today. If she stays a weak TS, then the BAM solutions may be a better track. While she has been weak the last 2 days, the BAM models have outperformed the globals.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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RJB
Edited by Ron Basso (Tue Aug 09 2005 02:48 PM)
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Ron Basso
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Quote:
anyone have that bam model link?
on the bottom of the homepage but here is the lastest run:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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RJB
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Ed in Va
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11:00 discussion...turn to west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/082051.shtml
please do not post the discussions (in full) in the threads...if you wish to highlight certain portions of the discussion for emphasis, that is fine. Thanks!
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 09 2005 03:15 PM)
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Ryan
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Ron Basso
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Quote:
I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.
Ftlaudbob, the scenario is trending toward the US east coast. It's still too far out to call, and this storm has proved unpredictable, but the global patterns are migrating toward a large ridge settng up over the eastern coast this weekend into early next week. If it verifies, it will force the storm west at some point (or continue it west). I noticed the BAM models show this in their latest runs. This is a somewhat similar pattern to what happened with Andrew, but let's not alarm anyone yet. This is a weak storm and is not predicting more than TS status. From HPC this am on the building ridge:
THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z . THE 00Z ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z . WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z .
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RJB
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B.C.Francis
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I guess we`ll have to wait and see what old Irene is going to do. Whats going on in front of her that would turn her more N.W. and then N. and keep her away from the East Coast ??.....Time will tell.......I hope she turns and sleeps with the fish.....Weatherchef........ web page
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Brad in Miami
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I noticed that the hydrometeorological (sp?) prediction center, not the , issued the 11 am advisories and is scheduled to issue the 5 pm. I've never seen that with a depression at sea, and it seems particularly odd for a depression that still has the potential to head in the general direction of the Bahamas or U.S. over the next week. I've only seen the HPC issue advisories once a storm/depression has been inland for a time.
Is this standard practice? Or is there something about Irene, its weak state, its forecast track, or something else that made her a candidate for this?
Maybe I am just an idiot (well, I know the answer to that one) who hasn't noticed that this is done all the time.
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Ed in Va
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Anbody got any data on the track of storms that have hit the NE? My recollection is that they have come up the coast...see this link on LI hurricane history:
http://longisland.about.com/cs/weather/a/hurricane_past_2.htm
and not from this direction. Wouldn't recurving be a huge issue for this possible track?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Brad in Miami
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Almost forgot: if I'm not mistaken, the fact that the HPC is now issuing advisories means we don't get the graphics representations of the forecast track, among other things.
Will the issue advisories again if this becomes a tropical storm again? This is so intriguing to me, particuarly because I can't find a reference to the "switchover." In the times I've seen this, I've seen one final advisory from the saying something to the effect of, "Future advisories on Irene will be issued by the HPC."
OOPS--Just found this in the 5 am advisory:
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON IRENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NWS/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Tue Aug 09 2005 03:29 PM)
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