Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Rabbit:
Look back a few posts; Clark answered my similar question re: why the HPC instead of the is issuing advisories.
Re: your comment about the LLC, I see 2 areas that might be it (one of them perhaps even a re-formation a bit NE from the earlier position?), but I wouldn't be surprised to learn I'm wrong; that it's a tropical storm; or that it's opening into a wave, as you suggested. Irene continues to be difficult to pin down.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Quote:
Rabbit:
Look back a few posts; Clark answered my similar question re: why the HPC instead of the is issuing advisories.
Re: your comment about the LLC, I see 2 areas that might be it (one of them perhaps even a re-formation a bit NE from the earlier position?), but I wouldn't be surprised to learn I'm wrong; that it's a tropical storm; or that it's opening into a wave, as you suggested. Irene continues to be difficult to pin down.
I Said 2 areas but u only told us one? So Where is the Other area?
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I watched JB's video and usually do everyday. I think he does ok, but i think he is a little more extreme than need be. Maybe it's because they want ratings and or members (JB has a "pro" service you can purchase) i don't know. Most of the time i can understand what he is talking about but today he lost me....i think his segment was too long thats for sure. He uses all them graphs, charts, etc....i think it's a little too much, know what i mean? It's like this - you go to the track, you buy a program and place your bets based on the program and the current odds. They also sell a more comprehensive guide that will supposedly show you how to pick all the winners. Thats where JB comes in - he is the comprehensive guide filled with a bunch of fancy graphs and charts that you really don't need whereas the and NWS are the basic, no BS guides. They give you the information you need to know and without all the poetry. Thats my take anyway......
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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It seems that "JB" is a Mister Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com – who seems to be going through some sort of a midlife crisis at the moment. At least that was this viewer's impression. I gave up after two minutes. Actually it was the first time I can remember hearing a commercial meteorologist warning that a big storm was poised to do something "dangerous" and widely unexpected. Might that be an example of wishcasting? Anyway that's what I thought I heard him saying. Admittedly for one minute it seemed refreshing not to hear a professional reassuring me that everything is going to be beautiful in its own way.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks that the LLC of Irene is just to the NE of the blob of convection on the south end of the storm. That would put it about 22N,54W. I don't think it's a wave - just the opposite. I think she is back to TS status with convection over the center and banding features starting to form. I wouldn't expect rapid intensification due to the light northerly shear and dry environment - but slow intensification from here on out. I thought earlier the storm would vanish when it's LLC was exposed w/o convection, but she's managed to pull it back over. Amazing, this storm will just not die.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
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RJB
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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At times Jb gets 1 right. He will spot every area where there could be development and if he gets one to form there then its a 'told ya so'. I think hes just being himself. He gets excited about systems like many of us do. He wants to keep people interested on areas so they will get excited to see if they form or go in that direction. Some is entertainement but some is just speculation. Overall its ok to hear his thoughts. Like mine or anyone elses, dont take anything for granted even if we do get it right cause we could be wrong the next time around.
WIth Irene I said last week to watch east of the bahamas by mid-late week this time. I also said that was the outside chance. Now its almost a 40% chance of happening but I still think the better choice is to go towards Bermuda with the midlevel low taking over tonight. Time will tell ....
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Noname:
Don't know if you were addressing me, but I suppose I meant to say I could see 2 areas that potentially were the LLC, but I would not be surprised if I were incorrect and neither was it (or even, as Rabbit suggested, that the LLC was falling apart).
Basically, in the earlier visible satellite images, I did not think it was possible to pick out the LLC, but there did appear to be - and continuity would suggest - some turning close to the main area of convection, just on the west side of it. But in the last hour or so before I typed that message, there appeared to be another area of turning (again, this is based on just a few frames from the vis satellite, so it could be artefact or the mlc or a short-lived vortice) a bit to the NE of the area which continuity (i.e., an almost due west motion from the 11am advisory) would have suggested.
Quite frankly, looking at the vis satellite images now, you could convince me that a different area, sort of in the middle of the two I was looking at before, is either the mlc or LLC.
All that this might demonstrate is my lack of skill in finding it, but I suspect the center is not well-defined (although I'd be surprised if it's opening into a wave, given its tenacity before; the previously well-defined surface circulation; and what still appears to be well-defined turning, either at the mid-levels or lower levels) and that the only way to get a good estimate of its position right now would be Quickscat. Of course, until a plane or ship goes in there, that will still be just an estimate.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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The afternnon HPC take on Irene:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Hmmmm.....looking at the lastest trends in models.....don't count her out yet as a fish spinner. It's going to get interesting in the nest 2days or so. Noticed the (left or west) bends in some models towards the west.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Latest from HPC:
E COAST INTERESTS SHUD KEEP AN EYE ON T.D. IRENE IN THE ATL.
WHILE THE PREFERRED 06Z DISSIPATES THE SYS BY THE MEDR
PD...THE ...NOGAPS...AND UKMET CARRY THE SYS ALONG THE SWRN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROP RIDGE IN THE MEDR...WITH THE 12Z
ALLOWING THE SYS TO APPROACH THE MID ATL COAST BY THE END OF ITS
RUN ON DAY 6/MON. NOON COORD LED TO A SLOW NWLY TRACK AROUND THE
SWRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...BUT AS UNCERTAINTY IS GROWING IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE H5 PATTERN OVER WRN NA BY MID PD...IT
ALSO GROWS ON THE E COAST. SEE THE LATEST BULLETINS ON IRENE FOR
THE OFFICIAL THINKING ON ITS FORECAST TRACK.
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RJB
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am a total novice when it comes to weather lingo and i have to say that i couldn't understand a darn thing the HPC was saying. Whats the deal....where is this thing going???
Ok, now i get it....i didn't read that far. I was lost the first paragraph.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Tue Aug 09 2005 02:44 PM)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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New Tnumbers are still at 2.0 but I suspect on the next run it will be at T.S. Status because banding features are more evedent it is getting more symetrical and convection keep firing with the shear lessing it sould strengthen slightly for a while.
Also somethign I am wondering is how do u become a moderator and how many are there.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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At the bottom of this page is an area titled "extra information". In that section they list the moderators...there are 11 of them i think. As far as becoming one - have no clue.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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irene has been moving west since last night. it is moving due west today. if ridge builds north, as expected. it will not be able to turn to the nw.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That's where its dynamics count- if Irene can increase power to TS status then it can start on a NW turn eventually fulfilling the sloutions to some of the models- as UKMET.
If it continues acting 'shallow' and being confined to its size due to the 'FUTURE' ridge above it than it may indeed continue its merry way west. But nothing is set in stone.
Stay tuned.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Tue Aug 09 2005 03:34 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Irene is looking a bit better organized, though the strongest convection is still displaced to the south of the surface circulation. The storm is currently located in some weaker convection to the north of that region, though the storm looks a lot like it did when it was reorganizing a few days ago with new centers developing -- so it remains to be seen whether or not the storm is trying to reorganize closer to the deeper convection. Shear is weakening across the storm, though it is still there from the west, so slow strengthening is not out of the question.
As for down the line...mentioned my thoughts in an earlier post...but the intensity forecast looks good on this end, maybe bump it up a little bit from 12hr on out to 120hr to account for the current organization trends of the storm. Track still looks good, with a bit further west and slower at 3-5 days my current thiking. It, like Franklin, will probably slow down quite a bit near Bermuda as a trough passes it by to the north. What will happen from there is anyone's guess. Best guess is still for it to ultimately recurve out to sea, but there is still the threat of it making it past the trough. We'll watch this one through the rest of the week, no matter what happens, and should know more by Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately, it is one of those watch-and-wait storms...both track and intensity-wise.
If it becomes a threat to the US, it is at least a week away, making any forecasts towards that end uncertain at best. Everyone should be watching this one in case trends towards the west with this storm continue...or if the opposite happens and the model guidance trends back to sea.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I checked all weather sites i know and most are still saying that Irene may follow the periphery of the ridge and turn to the NW in the coming days....guess it's a waiting game.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Ok, this is weird, I swear we're missing a page...LOL! Anyway, someone just posted about how some mets just say the basic info and not get into detail about other possibilities. Do you all remember Jeanne from last year. I watched the models all day and kept seeing them start to do the loop and head back to Florida. None of the mets ever mentioned it. When I mentioned to friends and family that Jeanne may be in fact a problem they thought I was nuts. Regretably I was right. It was bothersome how it was totally blown off even when the loop was mentioned in discussions.
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et1516
Unregistered
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dora 1964 look at the track and climatology. ???????
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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You have to remember that with these storms, the local meteorologists get their information from the computer models and the -- just like the rest of us. Most of them, even in Florida, do not have specific experience tracking tropical cyclones. Thus, they are going to go with the information available to them more often than not, with a bit of their own experience & information added in for clarity.
Jeanne's track was a complicated one, as the model guidance was split for quite some time as to what the storm would do...if it even survived Hispaniola. The showed the potential for this storm to slow down -- and ultimately loop, later on down the line -- and about that time, the local meteorologists started to pick up on that. It's all a gradual trend, however, in the interest of not alarming the public needlessly. Once the track was shown towards Florida after the loop, everyone was on board...and that, really, is about the time to be prepared for the storm.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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