NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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the 5pm adv is out at wunderground but the discussion is not yet
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.public.html
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Tue Aug 09 2005 04:58 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I heard that it depends on what side of the hurricane you are on as to tornadic activity. When passed us last month we had tornado warnings posted for Manatee County - we were on the northeast side of the storm - or the NE Quandrant. This is how and local news explained it. It doesn't matter what coast you live on.......
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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es it's out
Irene becoming better organized...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of tropical depression Irene was located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 54.4 west or about 925 miles...1485 km...southeast of Bermuda.
The depression is moving toward the west at 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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5 pm disc
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Last tornado post I promise..LOL! For those interested I found this.
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal05b.pdf
Haven't read it all. Way to long but still interesting.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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not liking that 5pm 5 day now
hope it all changes in the interim
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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TxFloodAdjuster
Unregistered
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
Looks like we have a player now.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The ridging is interesting, looks like the weakened irene kept it from getting caught up too early. Chances are, though, that it will still recurve out to sea, but this makes it a little more interesting. I don't think it will affect Florida directly, I thankfully see too much keeping it away from there. Further north may happen, but still overall a recurve is the most likely situation now.
Persistance, as usual, will be the key.
.
Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 09 2005 05:16 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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East coast????.....Its going to be an interesting weekend.......Weatherchef..... web page ]
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StormTrooper
Unregistered
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Water off the coast of Hatteras is 84.7 about 8.5 degees above normal.
I guess we'll have a pretty good idea by friday. any further west of this track and im afraid the curve wont matter.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
what do you guys think?
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wulrich
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Well lookey dehhh...
All those nay sayers about a East Coast storm look to be wrong thus far.
Remember the phrase: Trend is our friend.
The models CONTINUE to trend to the south and west. Not only that, but, some of the models hint at the storm moving towards complete west and some SSW after day 4 or 5! This has to be given into consideration since half of the meteorologists out there have SWORE that this thing would have recurved by now.
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
Now that only one or two models actually have it recurving anymore, lets see how many mets say "its still going to curve out."
Should be interesting.
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Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.
Edited by wulrich (Tue Aug 09 2005 07:18 PM)
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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
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Up to this point all anyone could do was "go by the book". I remember watching Andrew. If my memory serves me right they called for an early turn out to sea.
Think of Irene as a runningback. Once she gets through the Linebacker (the trough) she's home free. God i miss football so bad.... anyway. once that High builds over the carolinas and Georgia this weekend , the book it out the window.
Nothing this season has been by the book! HURRY UP AND WAIT!!!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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West African wave train heating up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
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RJB
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RyanRedCrosser
Unregistered
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I like how the title of this thread started with "No Threat to Land".. just makes you realize you can NEVER write a storm off 
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I don't know what models you are looking at but the ones i checked had only one, the BAMM model heading the storm in a west-southwest direction in a few days. The BAMM models are weird that way and i am not sure how, but they always end up different from the others. As for your comments about the mets.....they are going by info they get from other mets and the ......and until you can prove otherwise you should refrain from putting them down.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Well lookey dehhh...
All those nay sayers about a East Coast storm look to be wrong thus far.
Remember the phrase: Trend is our friend.
The models CONTINUE to trend to the south and west. Not only that, but, some of the models hint at the storm moving towards complete west and some SSW after day 4 or 5! This has to be given into consideration since half of the meteorologists out there have SWORE that this thing would have recurved by now.
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
Now that only one or two models actually have it recurving anymore, lets see how many mets say "its still going to curve out."
Should be interesting.
I'd rather it not be interesting. I remember my trip to Homestead in 1992. Your comment about the models not catching this storm is what concerns me. I hope it misses the U.S. but the patterns indicate, IMHO, that this storm is destined to impact the East Coast somewhere. The last model runs show more and more of a W to WSW curve as the high intensifies. I guess we'll see if there's a recon set up in the next 72 hours to give us all a clue.....
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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Thanks for the link to the discussion found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
Granted, I'm with Damian (pronounced similar to dame-hune too perhaps?) on the weather lingo used therein. Also, is this Clark of the HPC/NCEP the same as our Clark of Tallahassee, FL?
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I don't worry about those waves until they get closer to the Caribbean. Time and again they have shown some spunk at first and then three days later - gone with the wind. Like someone on here told me a few months ago....don't get too worried about these storms until your local news starts telling you so.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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"Andrew started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16 which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day. Further development was slow, as the west-northwestward moving Andrew encountered an unfavorable upper-level trough. Indeed, the storm almost dissipated on August 20 due to vertical wind shear. By August 21, Andrew was midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and turning westward into a more favorable environment. Rapid strengthening occurred, with Andrew reaching hurricane strength (sustained winds greater than 73 mph) on the 22nd and Category Four status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale on the 23rd. After briefly weakening over the Bahamas, Andrew reached Category Five status as it crossed south Florida on August 24. "
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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As with all high intensity storms (categories four and five), the worst damage is thought to have occurred, not from straight line winds but from vortexes or embedded tornadoes. There were thousands of these vortexes in Andrew; many of them could be traced for several miles, as they usually destroyed every building in their paths.
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