The Force 2005
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Looking at past Infared loop, it apperas to have more of a Westerly movement. Do you agree? Again, with the ridge building to the West, there is some strong indications that Iren to come underneath the two and go right through towards the coast. Does anyone else see this?
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Ed in Va
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Actually, other models do:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL092005_lrg.gif
but there has been a definite westward direction this am. 11:00 will be interesting.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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The Force 2005
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What Joe Bastardi was saying, that he believes that Irene will get trapped from the ridge building to the East and weakness to the West, and will try to go for the weakness, which puts Irene in a place of no where to go but towards the coast. But where. My thinking is this, given the weakness and the very warm waters out of ahead of Irene, she pushes towards the WNW with a hint of a Northerly track after she gets through the ridge and gets trapped. In the long run, it will be a long weekend for the and all of the forecastors up and down the EC say from NC up to LI.
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emackl
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Hmmm, 11:00 says she's moving NW. Sure doesn't look that way to me.
Irene is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed.
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The Force 2005
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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ftlaudbob
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Over the weekend surf should buliding up on LI,Block Island and Watch Hill.The water is above normal even up there,so she may not weaken.I think your looking at a cat 1,outside chance of a cat 2.Hopfully she will hold off for the Red Sox vs White Sox games this weekend.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ron Basso
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Irene has definitely tracked to the west this morning. How long and at what speed will probably determine which part of the EC will get impacted. I would expect some slowing down too but this storm has been hard to predict. I don't think the expected a turn toward the left until another 36-48 hours. This movement was somewhat predicted by the mm5 model, probably in response to the building ridge to the north. I don't think we'll get some confidence in the long-term track until we get some recon data on the storm structure and feed some drop sonde data into the models of the surrounding upper air environment. We need to remember, we have very observations of the upper atmosphere (other than Bermuda) over the open water.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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RJB
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The Force 2005
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Again, the comments from Joe Bastardi, and I don't want to alarm anyone of course, but it is not out of the realm like he said to have Irene at a 2/3 prior to landfall, if she even hits land for that matter. But, he brings up some strong points that it will.
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MikeC
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Quote:
My previous post was sent to the grave yard. I apologize if I offended anyone, but I was just trying to know why the Mets here aren't saying anything about Irene, considering it's location. That's all.
To answer the question. Not much has changed, it's still most likely to not affect land as far as I can tell. I like Bastardi, but don't always agree with him. What he's talking about is possible. But I don't think it is as likely as the out to sea scenario. Irene is worthy of watching, but I personally am not expecting much this round.
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The Force 2005
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Most clearly, the last couple of frames clear shows a Westerly movement.
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The Force 2005
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Mike, are you saying that the out-to sea- is the most logical? Or are you saying that Accuweather is inaccurate in their reporting on Irene. I too like Joe Bastardi, he gices a great detailed forcast, but must admit, he too can be wrong in his forecasting just as everyone else can be. But looking at all the different trends we are seeing from all the models, who are we to believe in the final outcome of Irene without a RECON?
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MikeC
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Quote:
Mike, are you saying that the out-to sea- is the most logical? Or are you saying that Accuweather is inaccurate in their reporting on Irene. I too like Joe Bastardi, he gices a great detailed forcast, but must admit, he too can be wrong in his forecasting just as everyone else can be. But looking at all the different trends we are seeing from all the models, who are we to believe in the final outcome of Irene without a RECON?
I wouldn't believe anyone except the , Especially me. I hate hurricanes and I'm not a met, there are others on here that are though. I just write from my own perspective. I just don't like to jump on short term things without something to back it up. Keep watching Irene, take in thoughtful commentary about what's going on, and make your own decision is about all you can do.
To add, from what I can tell looking at the Water vapor satellite images, it's just a flare up on the west side (that quickly petered out), the center is still moving northwest. Recon will help a great deal on verifying this.
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La Nimo
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So you are saying that the is wrong on a 300 to 305 degree direction as of 11:00AM. What do you know that they don't.
This post is bordering on attacking...let's keep the commentary on the STORM and not what other posters are postulating.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 12 2005 03:16 PM)
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Ed in Va
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The 11:00 position was 66.8 west, so I'm assuming that all of the flare-up we've seen this am is to the west of the center and therefore pretty misleading in terms of direction (click on lon/lat at top):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Steve hirschb.
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Pardon me, please look at the loop. Do you see a 305 degree movement? I sure don't. 280 at best.
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Clark
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If a storm is trapped in between a weakness to the west and a ridge to the east, the steering flow will largely collapse, with all that remains being the flow between a ridge and a trough -- out of the south towards the north. Coupled with the natural effect of Coriolis upon a storm and the storm would slow down and move into that weakness -- i.e. north and largely away from the shore. Unless he's saying "shore" as "New England", another ridge would have to build in before the storm gets captured in the midlatitude flow for the storm to hit land in that scenario.
Needless to say, most model guidance is now keeping this storm offshore through the forecast period, generally slowing it down but taking it out to sea. shows an interesting scenario of it recurving and heading NE, but in 6 days slowing down well N of Bermuda. Not buying that one just yet. If current trends continue -- the upper-low to the west is largely gone, replaced with a building ridge, but the storm is already into the weakness between the two cells -- my track forecast from the past two days will need to be substantially revised. The weakness created by that upper-low, not allowing the ridge to fully build in and allowing the storm to drift more towards the north, coupled with reogranization of the storm may be the saving grace if it stays offshore. The storm should turn back a bit more towards the WNW still, as previously noted, but it's already about 1deg further north than previously thought (by & on this end). That 1deg could be big. We'll watch it, and a new update may be forthcoming late this evening.
Added: the upper-low dropping south may induce a little bit of "Fujiwhara" mutual rotation with Irene, the tendency of which would be to swing the storm more westward. The upper-low is dropping SW right now; a move to the SE would suggest some interaction. Not too worried about it now, but it bears watching. Nevertheless, Irene is headed for a classical deformation zone/col, where the steering currents are minimal, out over the Gulf Stream. Given the further north track, the position of the trough, and the added push the westerly flow that starts near 33-35N gets from the development of convective systems each night over the upper midwest, I do think a further north -- and potentially land-saving -- track is quite possible after about 3 days. That still places much of the coast from Myrtle Beach on northward in the cone of uncertainty. Stay tuned.
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Ed in Va
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Clark,
Not following on the one degree father north...making it more likely to stay at sea or go towards the EC?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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AgentB
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Over the past 24hrs Irene has moved 3.2deg north and 3.6deg west. Pretty close to a NW movement, and right on for the 's call of WNW. True, she did move about twice as many degrees west as she did north in the last 6hrs(.7N/1.4W), but we all know how these storms like to make jogs and wobbles. Plus, like the has stated a few times, it's been difficult to pinpoint the exact center of circulation, which in turn can throw off forecast tracks a bit. One thing I did notice is that Irene is looking better on the vis. sat. She doesn't seem to be as elongated as before, and seems to be tightening up her shape. It will be interesting to see what recon comes back with.
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Check the Surf
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Clark
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Ed, 1 deg further north than forecast makes it more likely to go out to sea, as it "feels" the weakness in the ridge and ultimately is captured by the midlatitude zonal flow across the eastern US. Given the way the midlatitude pattern has evolved over the western US, with a shortwave moving from Oregon into Idaho now and a larger trough beginning to dive southward out of British Columbia and Alberta, it is becoming more likely that the pattern amplifies slightly, a shortwave trough captures Irene, and the storm does not make a "full" landfall. Being further north makes it more likely that the storm would feel the effects of such a trough...and gives the ridge less room to build back in. Nevertheless, the track will still likely be too close to the coast for comfort...and any prolonged movement back towards the west -- i.e. 12hr of movement instead of wobbles or reorganization -- will increase the risk to the coastline yet again.
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Clark
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Agreed, I think we're all anxiously awaiting recon into the storm. My guess is that it's not quite as strong as the current estimates, but it's not far off...say 60mph instead of 65mph. This is based more off of the low-level features needing time to catch up to the satellite appearance/mid-level organization in terms of wind speed than anything, however. I bring up the more northward motion, as the 24hr forecast point for Irene from yesterday morning was 27.2N/66.4W. Now, it's 28N/66.4W...may not seem like much, but that 0.8deg is 55mi/89km further north than expected and could play a big difference. forecast has incorporated this with the model guidance and seems pretty much on track right now.
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