damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
I am wondering if in the near future can anything be done to better predict where these storms will go? Presently they do a pretty darn good job considering not too long ago people had no clue as to where they were going to hit. I was just curious....you know as technology advances, will the predictions get better.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Irene looks to be taking some light shear. So there is probably a NE offset between the low level center and the upper center.
Use this enhancement. It's the enhancement.
Look for the little tadpole-like tail. It extends off toward the Southwest. Just ahead of that should be the 'center' This is based on CIMSS imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/BD/20.jpg
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
I've got no clue where the center is on it, but the banding features are getting more and more pronounced. I'd say it will strengthen rapidly over the next day as the effects of warm water, moist air, low shear, and better storm form (banding) begin push the winds higher.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Irene looks like it is solidifying a convection core. The center which had been open to the south has now become completley surrounded with convection...still very little going on in the west and south though and it presents with an almost straight line oriented ese-wnw cloud coverage along the southern and western reaches of the overcast area giving an elongated appearance. Outflow exists vigorously only on the north and some less vigorous outflow on the east...nothing in the west northwest or south. Convection does not seem to be building above the mid levels. All of this is why the intensity estimates are probably accurate for now.
If the development around the center can maintain and it may as it proceeds toward warm water it can still pull itself together into a hurricane. I don't see the dissapation the called for, bur it is still pretty fragile. I see nothing to suggest it is a hurricane now.
No reason to think it will not continue wnw especially if strengthening continues, as I cannot evaluate the relative strength of the ridge or the timing of the trough. Florida should be safe though.
--------------------
doug
|
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
|
|
Quote:
I am wondering if in the near future can anything be done to better predict where these storms will go? Presently they do a pretty darn good job considering not too long ago people had no clue as to where they were going to hit. I was just curious....you know as technology advances, will the predictions get better.
I saw on NASA Tv yesterday where they have got another sat called GIFTS that is suppose to get the info back in min instead of hours and that it will show 3D images and its suppose to be quiet better than the GOES sats. But they didn't say when it will be launched.
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
This year the models seem to have been much more reliable especially out to 72 hours...last year they were awful... didnot have any clue on the ridge....see if the end game in this one is not within the cone at the 5 day mark I think it will be. When you consider that the cone may cover 500-600 miles of coast line at 5 days that may seem like a huge absolute difference for the coast line involved, but when considered against the entire potential surface thatcould be effected that is the equivilant of a pin hole. So on a relative scale I think it is pretty good accuracy.
Remember the weather is a dynamic interaction of unstable gases and other forces which can change in an instant.
I did not follow up on becoming a met because I could not handle the physics!
--------------------
doug
|
Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
|
|
Yeah unless this thig starts to go just west, Floridans can say they are safe.
But I think this was a safe bet for alot of you, I mean compared to Floyd's track in 1999, this is a piece of cake
|
JAFO guy
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
they have got another sat called GIFTS that is suppose to get the info back in min instead of hours and that it will show 3D images and its suppose to be quiet better than the GOES sats. But they didn't say when it will be launched.
GIFTS will not launch until 2012.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
i think irene is going to pass close to ilm and mhx. Got family in ilm, says local media is jumping on it like most media in FL has done in this year....the basic, get your supplies, etc.
side not, the wave at 22w 11n is the most impressive i've seen this year to look this good, just after the exit from africa...it's large and if holds together...could be an invest within 24-48hrs..... take a look..... as clark said, things are about to get very active!!!!
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 11 2005 03:40 PM)
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
Quote:
i think irene is going to pass close to ilm and mhx. Got family in ilm, says local media is jumping on it like most media in FL has done in this year....the basic, get your supplies, etc.
side not, the wave at 22w 11n is the most impressive i've seen this year to look this good, just after the exit from africa...it's large and if holds together...could be an ivest within 24-48hrs..... take a look as clark said, things are about to get very active!!!!
whats ilm and mhx?...and yes that wave does look liek it has itself together prety well.
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
that wave does look pretty good. here's another look at it ir sat pic
Edited by hurricane_run (Thu Aug 11 2005 03:30 PM)
|
mightygringo85
Unregistered
|
|
I know people especially in Florida don't want to hear this, but i have noticed Irene is starting to turn more toward the West. This could be a slight abbaration, or something suggesting a larger course change. 
In the future, please provide some sort of background for what you see in the satellite imagery, models, forecasts, etc. that backs up why you believe this is occurring. Such comments aren't necessarily bad or out of line, but some sort of justification is required. Thanks... --Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 11 2005 04:25 PM)
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
whats ilm and mhx?...and yes that wave does look liek it has itself together prety well.
i believe they are the airports or call letters for Wilimington & Morehead City respectively, cities in NC
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
|
|
Quote:
take a look as clark said, things are about to get very active!!!!
And the only thing that would be stopping all these storms from hitting the East coast right now is the ridge that's causing the heat wave and thunder boomers up and down the coast. Once that's gone, it's less out to sea
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
opps! they are
(ilm)
Wilmington, nc
(mhx)
morehead city, nc
two biggest cities on east coast of nc....
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
pretty wound up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
|
|
Wow check out the explosion of water vapor(purple) in the last few frames its pretty impressive
link
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
ohh ok well that would explain a lot, yea if Irene takes the patht that the is predicting, she will be a little to close for comfort in NC, and then she looks to be heading north and a little to the west so maybe she'll make more than one landfall, hopefully not but we can only wait and see, a lot of the models show Irene's eye brushing the NC coast and then not surprisingly, the entire grid annot be shown because there is so much uncertainty about Irene, this are just my opinions what do other people think?
Ryan 
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
I still see- WNW track. What is your source?
--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Joe:
School out for the day no facts just he likes to get to people, looks to me she headed 290 to 295 W-NW
Dave
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
