BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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The forecast map on the site uses the forecast track. I don't know that there is any data on the site that is not available elsewhere, but they do a good job of putting everything you'd ever need to look at all on one page (if you can figure out all the acronyms on the links...)
Bill
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK...it's NOT Lil Phil...it's
LI as in LONG ISLAND Phil...
don't worry...you're only about the 20th person to make that mistake 
try this link
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Is a storm located at 25.7N and moving WNW "near 15 MPH" at the last advisory going to take an abrupt turn to the west all of a sudden and head towards Florida? That is basically what would have to happen and none of the models are showing that.
Edited by richisurfs (Thu Aug 11 2005 09:37 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Sorry Phil..... 
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looking at IR SAT, it looks like the LLC of Irene is displaced from the mid level center. It appears the LLC is on the west side of the cloud mass and the MLC is displaced to the NE. If this the case, I don't see any rapid strengthening. It also looks like the LLC is moving W-NW, somewhere between 280-300 deg. I'm wondering if its possible that the MLC separates from the LLC, with the LLC moving W-SW and the MLC moving off to the N-NW. Maybe this is what model is picking up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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RJB
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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What has changed since last night, overall? Not a whole lot, really, but enough to make mention.
The upper-low noted east of the Bahamas yesterday is still there, though it is slowly moving west and showing signs of narrowing. However, this is where the weakness is right now and what is likely sending Irene on a 300deg path. If Irene keeps going at this path, it may well round through the weakness in the ridge pretty slowly and ultimately head out to sea. Not a strong possibility, but there nonetheless. The satellite data suggest this is possible moreso than the actual height data -- the ridge north of Irene is narrow and, per the steering flow data available at the UWisconsin site, is weak enough to allow for something to slide through. As a result, I wouldn't be so quick to discount the /UKMET solutions just yet.
However, as this feature moves west, the storm should start to veer back to the west-northwest. Other than this feature, the tendency would be for Irene to move closer to 285deg. I expect a general 290deg motion to resume tomorrow, assuming the upper low continues to move away/fill. The next weakness lies directly along the coast, stretching from the Outer Banks across the northern parts of Ga/Al/Ms, but does not appear to be moving any further southward. A number of weak upper-level lows have formed along this boundary back to the west, with a persistent cell in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I don't expect a lot of motion from these features, but their building will help to amplify the pattern just slightly. Whether this means a tendency to send the storm more towards the west or more towards the north remains to be seen...right now, either possibility is about equally likely. The flow remains zonal across the eastern 2/3 of the US -- a shortwave trough is passing just to the north of Irene right now and may have also played a role in the jog northward today -- and with nothing down the line to suggest this will change, it is going to be fluctuations in the intensity and position of the subtropical ridge and boundary draped across the SE US that determine where this storm ultimately goes. Georgia is looking less likely with time as well, and the all-clear can about be sounded for a direct impact to Florida, but folks from Savannah northward really need to keep an eye on this one.
The low-level center and mid-level center are not aligned very well this evening -- another reason why you don't use infrared satellite imagery as the sole marker of a storm's intensity -- with the former moving ~300deg and the other building closer to ~315deg with the morphing of the convective pattern. As a result, I don't expect any change in intensity once again at 11pm. Once -- if -- the two become better aligned, some modest intensification is possible and likely. It is relatively dry in the vicinity of the storm, but not as much as before. Shear is still present, but the transverse banding features (e.g. outflow pattern) are getting better defined, especially to the north and east, with time. The solution is possible, given the current state of organization, but not likely at this point.
More tomorrow, if needed...we'll get the first recon fixes in time for the 5p advisory package tomorrow afternoon.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Well the 11PM is out, not too much change other than a potential for it to slow up. They mention a few points about not going into specifics yet about any east coast affect from the storm, which is pretty good advice concerning the situation with it.
Nothing has changed for me on thinking yet. Hoping/looking for ways for the storm not to hit land, and watching it otherwise.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heres a look at the current model output on Irene along with model performance numbers for just about every hurricane model.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL092005_perf.html
My overall thinking hasn't changed much and agree with the forecast for now, even though there has been some swing in guidance to the west in the 72-120 hour timeframe, rather wait and see what future trends hold considering each day they have gone back and forth.
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Given this storms ability to organize and strengthen during the early morning hours while it was traversing across the Atlantic, it will be interesting to see what the morning holds. I believe shear is still lessening and the effects of the ULL are decreasing as well. It seems to me that the storm should strenghten some tomorrow. Hopefully, this will increase the chance of finding a weakness in the ridge and turn north before it hits land.
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unregistered
Unregistered
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
read the forum rules about posting. short 'chat room' type comments are not permitted on this forum. your topic was fine, though. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 12 2005 12:39 AM)
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unregistered
Unregistered
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Hey everyone, sorry I've been absent lately. Working around the clock to finish the new site... Anyhow, here's a quick update:
Although the site isn't quite finished, Irene is a bit too close for comfort. Given the lack of confidence in the forecast path, we are releasing the new track maps early to accommodate the folks who rely on them.
Please do not pull full size images from Weather.com into the forums. This creates a serious load on the server and is unfair to those using dial up. Each full size image that is available for use in the forums will include the necessary forum code to generate a thumbnail that links directly back to the map you are interested in.
Example(Live data)
Image courtesy of Weather.com
Currenty, the forum code will be included under each image you can use. Once we launch the new site, look for this image:
Clicking this link will automatically generate the forum code for you. Just copy and paste it into your post!
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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The models are typically not run until an invest is given for any given storm.
Sometimes, model runs on other storms will pick up formations, sometimes not - at any rate, that close to the coast of Africa, there's nothing to mention - other than the fact that we're a scant few days away from the traditional start of the CV season...
Nice looking image, Skeet. Let me know if I can give you a hand getting anything wrapped up.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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lets say Irene follows the 5 day projected path, from 8PM Monday-8 PM Tuesday she looks to be taking a straight dash for land, and we could see another invest whats this 99L?...but i mean hopefuly with the EPAC being really active maybe the atlantic won't be, then again this season has already provn to be an unpredictable one, i think it was clark that said anywhere from savannah northward should watch Irene, most of the models arent showing a possible Georgia landfall, and i think she will take a path relitavely similar to the becuase of the trough over the central atlantic, i think she may ride the edge of the trough rather than breakign through it and turning out to sea, what do othe rpople think, a second and third opinion neevr hurts right. Also, one more thing-if you are in "the cone": should we be on alert?
Thanks, Ryan 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
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The 11PM didn't seem to report on it but the subtropical ridge now appears to extend further east of North Carolina than it had earlier in the evening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
My understanding is that the "subtropical" ridge is between 35N and 40N. 
Edited by Spoken (Fri Aug 12 2005 07:29 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wow, clark touched all the bases on irene. i don't suppose i could describe irene's current state so well. will just rubber stamp it and say 'what he said', 'cause it adds up.
i'll try to do the math elsewhere. there has been some commentary on the feature near 40w. there is strong convergence and a monsoon-trough type gyre there along 10N, with the curvature becoming more apparent with time. the convection there is modest, but over to the west near the caribbean the general extent and appearance of convection is already improved... perhaps due to 's arrival. the 40w feature is getting mention in the as of 1030pm... right now it needs to start dislodging from the if it is to develop. i'd expect this to happen as it moves west over the next couple of days... it will likely be an invest tomorrow or saturday.
there's a large amplitude wave just off of africa with an associated low. since it doesn't have the slam-dunk development sort of organization, it will probably not do anything for a couple of days either. it should also move west, perhaps also becoming an invest late in the weekend or early next week.
worthy of mention is the general lowering of pressures some of the globals have shown in the gulf in a few days. whether they're on to a pattern that favors development remains to be seen.
i'm gonna go look at the 00Z runs and see if anything new stands out.
HF 0455z12august
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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5 am advisory etc out. Recon flights today should be very interesting. With Irene getting stronger and expected to slow down... more chance for recurve?
Looks like thinks Irene will get to Hurricane tomorrow...
'shana
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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A local weather forecaster has this to say about Irene. Does anyone think something like this is possible considering the storm is moving NW and intensifying currently?
One thing I see is the building mid level high which will extend itself across the Carolina coast. If Irene becomes imbeded in this building 500mb high this would indeed weaken it. In fact what I see here in the next 3 to 5 days it weakens to a wave and moves westward toward NW Bahamas. The mid level high actually builds so much over it too that it pushes it soutward too. This could raise the rain chances for our area for early next week. We will have to keep an eye on this situation considering that I have forecasted at least 9 inches of rain for our area for August and this may be one situation we could get a significant rain event. This is evident as an inverted trough at 500mb for Monday heading toward NW Bahamas. In fact High pressure builds from mid levels to the surface also in the area over and north of Irene. So this does raise some questions as to whether even Irene gets to be a Cat 1 storm. As of now it looks like whatever is left from Irene the dynamics and effects of it may effect our area at least what will be left of it...it looks to me like it will be squeezed out of all its moisture especially being imbedded into a dry mid level high pressure area. The low level entity maybe all what is left when it gets here if it ever does or what is left of it. The scenario is a confusing one when one tries to see this on the Model.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Here is the link to the steering flows Clark referred to last night( I think) and their changes in the last 24 hours and 5 day movies.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Irene looks more and more to be a big tease. Models has said all along that she would strenghthen and begin to recurve. At 5 am the trend for both has begun. I would guess that now there's a 75% chance that this thing will only spin the fish unless she slows down, and then perhaps gets sent w or wnw toward Cape Hatteras or Cape Cod. Just my thoughts based on years of watching storms in this area. J.C.
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