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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
TD 10 is now upon us
      #47858 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:33 PM

Saturday - 10PM Update
The easterly shear over Irene has relaxed quite a bit and the Tropical Storm is now drifting to the north - currently near 31N 69.5W. The CDO has reformed over the center, so some intensification is still possible during the next 24 hours. Strong westerlies to the north of the cyclone should take Irene out to sea in a couple of days - with no direct impact on any land mass, i.e., I am now a lot more comfortable with the 'all clear' call.

TD 10 is fighting southerly shear and for the next couple of days it will encounter a hostile upper air environment - intensification, if any, will be slow. The system is moving slowly westward, however if the system survives the next couple of days (and it might), a west northwest to northwest motion seems likely.

An active wave in the central Caribbean along 70W is moving to the west northwest. The wave is disorganized and, at the moment , upper level conditions are not favorable for development - but the system is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
ED

Original Post
We still have Irene but now TD 10 has formed, and as of now may be something for the Southeast US coast to watch.

Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Irene

Animated Model Plot of Irene
Satellite Image of Irene with Storm Track Overlays
Infrared color Satellite Image of Irene with Storm track Overlays
QuikSCAT image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Spaghetti Plot from BoatUS
NRL Monterey Irene Imagery

TD 10:

Satellite imagery from NASA/GHCC
QuikSCAT image of TD 10
NRL Monterey TD 10 Imagery
NOAA Buoy 41041 near TD 10

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 14 2005 12:39 AM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: TD 10 is now upon us [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #47862 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:44 PM

What is the chance that TD 10 will survive the trough and hitting the east coast?

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: TD 10 is now upon us [Re: NONAME]
      #47863 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:48 PM

Way too far out to guess about that right now. I would give it a 60/40 chance and I am sure some of our Mets will add their thoughts on this but we have a long way to go yet.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: TD 10 is now upon us [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #47864 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:50 PM

If it were to become a tropical storm, it'll get the name Jose. It, like many of the storms that came before it, would be the earliest 10th named storm in recorded history in the Atlantic basin. The previous record for the earliest 9th storm has yet to pass as well, continuing the rapid pace of storms that this season has been on since the beginning of June.

Today also marks the one year anniversary of Hurricane Charley making landfall in Southwest Florida. Charley is the second costliest hurricane on record in the United States (unadjusted figures), having resulted in over $15 billion dollars in damage. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 remains in the topspot at near $30 billion dollars. Charley's name was retired, and rightfully so considering the damage it caused. Next time around, it'll be Colin in it's place.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: NONAME]
      #47865 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:52 PM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 (edited~danielw)

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...

Bold emphasis added~danielw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/132019.shtml

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 13 2005 08:57 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: danielw]
      #47866 - Sat Aug 13 2005 08:57 PM

For what it is worth, I watched Joe Bastardi today and he says that TD10 is very likely to head towards the FL east coast....but based o h9is Dennis and Irene predictions...that may be a good thing

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach 31.35N 67.85W
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: pcola]
      #47868 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:08 PM

Why do you listen to Joe Bastardi his track record been bad for the last few years, but guess, people like to hear the wild side and he good at that.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: pcola]
      #47869 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:12 PM

Let me be the first to say"No Way Jose". Central and South Florida will hopefully win the lottery on 0 direct hits from hurricanes this season. We are 0 out of 9 right now. We are having tremendous thunderstorms in the afternoons and they are exciting and wet enough to cool us. I have a question about an area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean tonight. If that should form into a storm, would it influence the direction of 10 (whatever by then) ?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: TD 10 is now upon us [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #47870 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:12 PM

Is there something in the Caribbean that could form and move into the Gulf later next week? I am not talking about TD 10 but another system. I heard something about it on the news here. Any information on that?

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: pcola]
      #47871 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:13 PM

I watched JB's video too and i was quite disturbed when he pretty much wishcast this thing into the Fla east coast. He was using one of his maps and going from current position to the 288 hour position, which he seems to think will be South Fla.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: TD 10 and NONAME [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #47872 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:13 PM

You must be asking about the same system I am asking about. Anyone know anything about this one?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Caribbean Waves [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #47873 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:17 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 (edited~danielw)

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SOME CURVATURE IS SEEN IN THE LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-73W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-73W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 15N...S OF JAMAICA... MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN....PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-84W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/140014.shtml?

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 13 2005 09:19 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Caribbean Waves [Re: danielw]
      #47874 - Sat Aug 13 2005 09:26 PM

TD 10 has been going due West for last 6 hours, still a TD, Irene allmost looks to be 350 Degrese lost some of her punch.

Dave


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Just love this sat loop [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47876 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:20 PM

a picture tells a thousands words but I'll add just a few more...

the convection in the east/central caribbean is associated and interacting with the ULL just south of the tip of Fl digging down deep in the central caribbean...

convection with Irene if firing back up again... movement if any to the north as best as I can tell off this loop...

TD 10 does looks to be moving slowly to the west perhaps as the convection is getting blown off to the north

another little interesting cluster of storms SE of TD10... not sure what to make of it but at the moment it has as much convection as TD10.... things to watch but nothing of any concern... yet (a dial up connection might take some time to download this link.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Just love this sat loop [Re: Frank P]
      #47879 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:31 PM

I see that cluster of storms SE of TD10, maybe it's little sister following Him, It should be interesting to see what NHC says at 11:00 PM on TD10 in there forcast track and Tropical Discussion on TD10.
Dave


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re:sat loop [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47880 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:41 PM

IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 12:05 AM)


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LVG
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: TD 10 is now upon us [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #47881 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:41 PM

Hey guys,
Judging by the western atlantic surface temp's and the high ridge, #10 worries me. Could it be another Isabele? What do you think about the business coming off of the Sahara right now??
LVG


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Just love this sat loop [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47882 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:43 PM

11pm is out - it is still going NW and the track is still the same maybe a little more NW...

(caustic reference removed)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 13 2005 11:41 PM)


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John03
Unregistered




Re: Just love this sat loop [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47883 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:45 PM

Interesting little flare up se of TD10.... i would watch the carribean a little more right now.... the mid-upper feature over the southern tip of florida or keys moving west in GOM. Which i think is about to setup a pattern, and allow for favorable developement closer than we think..... i think the high is about to kick in and look like last year....this year we have had few systems that get into it, and find the weakness and move bak out to see......but i think thats about to change.....seems like everything that goes north of the islands, will miss the east coast....but that not to say one system later on might make it and turn left..... if anything gets going within next week, i would suspect it will be in Carribean and southern GOM....things will get very interesting in western carribiean and GOM in next few days....well see if i am right....

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Just love this sat loop [Re: ralphfl]
      #47885 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:47 PM

Where are you getting your info? I checked NHC site and the only 11pm update is the strike possibilities. BTW - Old Sailor never said the storm was heading west.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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