JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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It is now a hurricane gang:
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.
BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN 
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TheElNino
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like TD10 may be coming back from the dead. I see some convection picking up within the low level circulation, heading WNW.
Please provide a link to the site you are using.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 07:35 PM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I heard something to that nature from msn. I am currently trying to pull up the article but there apparently was a news alert sent out.
EDIT: Never mind, my friend who told me this just double checked and it was the original alert. 
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Sun Aug 14 2005 07:53 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Unless X-TD10 shows something significant quickly. probably won't reclassify it until the 11PM Advisory. If then!
Especially with Irene spinning up and Two RECON planes throwing data.
Seems like was the last time 2 Recon planes were in the same storm at the same time. Almost real-time data.
Vortex fixes every 45 minutes are normally seen with landfalling Hurricanes.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well, Irene finally managed to pull off CAT 1 status.
Almost hard to imagine after a week of being uncoupled from top to bottom.
Last Vortex had an extrapolated MCP of 989mb.
And Max FLT Level Winds of 85kts E Quad at 2242Z.
This is with an open Eyewall.
AF306 WX09A IRENE02 OB 19
MAX FL WIND 85 KT E QUAD 22:42:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 140 / 10NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I wouldn't write off the LLC of old TD 10 yet. Some recent convection near the LLC and good circulation evident on the VIS SAT. TD10 looks to be drifting slowly W-NW. The 12Z UKMET develops the depression into a storm and has it moving just to the north of the Windward Islands and then W-NW thru the central Bahamas in 6 days. A long way off and only one model run, but the global pattern of a rebuilding Atlantic Ridge after Irene is predicted by many models - thus if TD10 develops, its unlikely to go north out into the open Atlantic. And what's that feature spinning CC around 30N-55W diving S-SW. It looks like a mid latitude low pressure system - the circulation doesn't show up on the water vapor.
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RJB
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La Nimo
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
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This was your forecast a few days ago on Irene now your shot at 10 coming back
Quote:
The ridge is centered just to the east of Bermuda with a bridge over to another center off of the east coast of Florida. The storm likely will not split the ridge betwen the 2 high centers because its strong and forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. The western axis is also forecast to slowly drift north to a latitude of Daytona Beach by Sunday. What does this mean? In the short term, probably a slowing of the storm and perhaps more of a W-NW or W motion. Some models show an eroding of the western side of the Bermuda High in 72 hours and this is what is forecasting to move the storm N-NW.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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actually i think there were 3-4 planes up yesterday at one time....i know there were two af planes at once....an old one and a new (had different data transmissions) and i know the G-IV was up and i think there may have been a P-3 up too.... (with Irene) With the TCPS going last month and the early storms, and not to mention air fuel prices going way up.....the AF and NOAA will be going over budget this year in recon missions!!!!! Think old TD is on the come back, noticed all day the swirl stayed there and move NW some, with a few flare ups durning the evening and now.....they may wait one more adv. to bring it back to see if it holds.....
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
check out the models, they have TD#10 becoming a cat. 3 hurricane in about 114 hours, and then in the llaasttt frame you can see a little spec of cat. 4 force storm. What are peoples opinions on this event?
EDIT: also, in 48 hours is has it being a TS Jose, we'll just have to seee
Ryan, as richisurfs mentioned in a later post, you can't use just one model run for any given system. The previous two runs of the , at 6z and 12Z, both dissipated the storm within 48hr -- whereas now, after it has been dropped by the , it takes it to category 4 status in five days. It's got a shot at regenerating down the line, probably in a day or so, but not like that. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 14 2005 10:15 PM)
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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can you please tell me the current current coordinates of TD 10? Thanks!
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John03
Unregistered
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so what's the count now with the atlantic?
9 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major
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9 + 1 TD?=10
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
so what's the count now with the atlantic?
9 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major
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9 + 1 TD?=10
Lets seeL
Tropical Storm
TS Bret
TS Cindy
Hurricane (M)
Hurricane Emily (M)
TS Franklin
TS Gert
TS Harvey
Hurricane Irene
TS Jose?
By my count we have had 9 storms, 3 canes, and 2 major canes.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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That is interesting. TD #10 isn't done, and I stated earlier that I think it could get classified sometime tomorrow again, but there is quite a bit of shear to get past as an unusually deep through in the central Atlantic digs southward. It is hitting it with southerly shear at the upper levels. This should abate, but not sure how long it will take. These things are difficult to forecast (shear). But as the "TD" movew NW/WNW, conditions should improve and develop would be likely IMO. Cheers!!
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Ryan...I think thats one model run thats subject to change numerous times between now and 114 hours out.
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BrianW
Unregistered
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is this the old TD 10 that is back?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD (10L)
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 45.9W
that would be WSW of the 11am, but that doesn't seem right?
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MikeG
Unregistered
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nope not tonight
but we do have a New Hurricane....Irene
TWOAL
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 11:53 PM)
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John03
Unregistered
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Irene:
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT
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pedro
Unregistered
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The ukmet has TD 10 by the bahamas later on in the week this model hasent done that bad
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MikeG
Unregistered
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.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 11:45 PM)
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MikeG
Unregistered
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.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 11:43 PM)
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