Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Invest 99L Moves Toward the Bay of Campeche.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 59 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?
      #48048 - Tue Aug 16 2005 11:49 AM

Irene, now a category 1 Hurricane, is moving out to sea.

There isn't all that to track in the rest of the Atlantic.

However We're watching to see if the remnants of Tropical Depression 10 reform, which is possible.

About a 50/50 shot right now. There are still plenty of factors that would knock it out, but as it moves westward we'll have to watch it. It's a speck of its former self. It didn't totally dissipate, which may allow for it to reform.

If it does reform it looks like the Bahamas and possibly us would have to watch it. I don't expect much from the system right now. If it persists and regains convection, we may. If it stays weak (more likely) then it won't be much if anything.

Continue to watch the tropics!

The chance for redevelopment of TD#10 by tomorrow night:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*-----------]



Beyond that, the waves off africa haven't been able to persist for long.

See clark's blog below for more in depth discussion.



Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Irene

Animated Model Plot of Irene
Satellite Image of Irene with Storm Track Overlays
Infrared color Satellite Image of Irene with Storm track Overlays
QuikSCAT image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Spaghetti Plot from BoatUS
NRL Monterey Irene Imagery

Former TD 10:

Satellite imagery from NASA/GHCC
Animated Model Plot of ExTD#10
QuikSCAT image of TD 10
NRL Monterey TD 10 Imagery
NOAA Buoy 41041 near TD 10


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: MikeC]
      #48050 - Tue Aug 16 2005 12:40 PM

Former TD #10 still looking disorganized at noon today. LLC seems to be struggling for identidy or hidden beneath convection firing on the NW side. The Globals don't really do much of anything with this feature, and the GFDL has been hot and cold, the 6z version dimishing it. The environment is terrible right now with the persistent SW'erly shear; wonder if it will get favorable at all. Right now its No Way Jose from former TD#10. But things can change quickly. Enjoy the lull; but keep a stock of your hurricane supplies.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Steve H1]
      #48052 - Tue Aug 16 2005 01:00 PM

What happend to JB on the Accuweather site? They dismantle him for getting all the storms wrong this year almost? IM j/k I like his videos but its not up there. I guess hes on vacation?

It seems like they may have taken them off. Maybe too many hits and they decided to stop giving them away. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:00 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48053 - Tue Aug 16 2005 01:44 PM

Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48054 - Tue Aug 16 2005 01:49 PM

Anyways, My idea of the sw carribean starting up tomorrow look on track still. Im going out on a limb here and only 1 model agrees with me and that is the NOGAPS.
There is soo much shear going on with the upper low over the central and western carribean right now for the next 48 hours that any low will be weak. I dont think it will be noticed more until 72hours when it gets off the Honduras coast near Belieze and heads NW or NNW along the eastern Yucitan of Mx. I think conditions will improve for this to become a depression and possibly a storm. It could move then more wnw towards the western gulf or get trapped if it stays more e in the central gulf by next Sunday into Monday. A trough will dig into the great lakes and Ne U.S. late this week into the weekend. How far down to the S.E U.S will determine how far N it gets. First it still has to form in a couple days if at all.
With the former TD it does have a chance to get its status back but not till at least tomorrow evening and even then I think they will wait for recon to check it out. Again with trough coming down this weekend it should do the same as Irene unless the trough moves out quicker then expected early next week.

scottsvb


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: PFSThunder]
      #48055 - Tue Aug 16 2005 02:28 PM

"Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge."

Of course he does...why am I not suprised? Then again, maybe I should be glad he thinks that because that means it probably won't happen. Seriously, I personally love these storms for the waves but hate them for what they can do to peoples lives and property so I'm hoping it doesn't break through the ridge and just dies a quiet death out there.

Edited by richisurfs (Tue Aug 16 2005 02:29 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: richisurfs]
      #48056 - Tue Aug 16 2005 02:50 PM

Irene latest scatt is 5.0/5.0 looks to be close to 100MHP

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48057 - Tue Aug 16 2005 02:55 PM

Translation...please.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #48058 - Tue Aug 16 2005 03:07 PM

The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from one of the three agencies the NHC uses -- and the only one publicly available -- now has an estimate of 5.0 on the storm, which generally translates to an intensity of about 105mph. The full website can be found here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html. I'd go into a full discussion about the Dvorak technique, but it'd take quite a long time; nevertheless, it is an attempt to categorize storm intensity by the overall cloud pattern & structure (as determined by satellite) for a given tropical cyclone. It does a pretty good job and is often all we have for intense storms well out at sea, but does have some error in it from time to time and is generally a subjective categorization process requiring a lot of practice, training, and experience on the observer's part. Efforts are underway to create an objective Dvorak system, primarily at UWisconsin, but that is just experimental at this time.

As for TD 10...it is looking a little disorganized at this time with perhaps two separate low-level centers due to this morning's convective burst to the west of the old center. Nevertheless, conditions are improving with the system and we may well see something sometime tomorrow once again out of this one. Model guidance that picks it up is now trending more towards recurvature and an impact near Bermuda down the line, but that is 5 days out and for a weak system, I'm not sure how much I trust the models. We'll watch it.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: richisurfs]
      #48059 - Tue Aug 16 2005 03:54 PM

Actually. I saw the point\counterpoint video yesterday and today. JB doesn't have old TD10 "break thru the ridge", rather he sees it riding the southern boundary of a strong Atlantic ridge all the way to the east coast of Florida. I don't put any stock in predictions that far out, but he's making a point about the global pattern he sees the next 5-6 days.

--------------------
RJB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Clark]
      #48060 - Tue Aug 16 2005 04:19 PM

Ed, a few sites about Dvorak technique:

What it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
What the levels mean: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
A generalized "satellite" to Dvorak number comparison: http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm

(Thanks to whoever it was that posted that last one here here for me a month back!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48061 - Tue Aug 16 2005 04:23 PM

Interesting at least one of the main models shows TD10 (remnant) heading west-northwest and then west-southwest toward florida over the next 5 days, though never has it reach the state before it ends the loop. Unfortunately for JB there is a LOT of stuff it has to survive through before we can even begin to say that track may be right.

Personally I think TD10 will return to TD strength, and possibly TS strength, but whether it heads toward land or goes fish spinning, no clue. It is too hard to predict such a weak system, especialyl since system's intensity is a heavy modifier in track and there isn't good guidance on strength forcasting for open waves.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48062 - Tue Aug 16 2005 04:31 PM

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
... IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING ...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach 31.35N 67.85W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: MikeG]
      #48063 - Tue Aug 16 2005 04:42 PM

Old Sailor posted it at being 100MPH at 2:50PM today hmmmm..

Hey we go again TD10 or what use to be 10 is in a downward phase again seems like a rerun of yesterday and day before. This one is going to be very hard to predict.

together they constitute a post. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:05 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pedro
Unregistered




Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: MikeC]
      #48065 - Tue Aug 16 2005 05:16 PM

I been seeing that the former TD 10 is increasing some convection the past few hours. Dont think were finish with this one at least for know. Must keep a close eye on it for the next few days.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: pedro]
      #48066 - Tue Aug 16 2005 05:46 PM

i think she wont be upgraded, if she is at all, till late wednesday or early thursday and be a threat to the Bahahmas and Florida from what some of the models show..hopefully not because that would be like starting a trend..the J storms hit florida so im hoping thats false..we'll enjoy the lull while it lasts, which from the waves on africa doesnt look like long.

if it gets named it's jose. odd calling it she for that reason.. i just use 'it' for storms because calling everything by feminine pronouns makes you sound like a cliche pirate. arr, she be a good ship, matey. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:08 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: MikeC]
      #48068 - Tue Aug 16 2005 07:34 PM

Doesn't look like tropical depression 10 wants to give up. He's a fighter. If he reforms it should be around Thursday?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lawgator1
Unregistered




Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #48069 - Tue Aug 16 2005 07:42 PM

GOES Floater 1 is on T.D.10 so we are getting, what, half hour loop update? A nice burst of convection there to the northwest of the (well, ONE of the) spins in T.D. 10.

What say the track models if he/she/it/they survive?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 244
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: lawgator1]
      #48070 - Tue Aug 16 2005 08:14 PM

I'm wondering if that spin to the northeast might be the start of some mid level circulation that got sheared off. This burst of convection 12 hours ahead of the diurnal max is kind of interesting. I think this is only temporary there is still plenty of shear around. The RGB picks up both spins,but the LLC (moving west) in the SW quad seems dominant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: lawgator1]
      #48071 - Tue Aug 16 2005 08:18 PM

16/2345 UTC 16.4N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 10
16/1745 UTC 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10
16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10
16/0615 UTC 15.5N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 10
15/2345 UTC 15.1N 50.3W TOO WEAK 10
Looks like RTD Ten are getting better organized I would actually expect regeneration tonight or tomorrow morning maybe later than that but I think it looks good enough to be classified by tomorrow morning. Especially since the Shear is weakening.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 24983

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center