MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Irene, now a category 1 Hurricane, is moving out to sea.
There isn't all that to track in the rest of the Atlantic.
However We're watching to see if the remnants of Tropical Depression 10 reform, which is possible.
About a 50/50 shot right now. There are still plenty of factors that would knock it out, but as it moves westward we'll have to watch it. It's a speck of its former self. It didn't totally dissipate, which may allow for it to reform.
If it does reform it looks like the Bahamas and possibly us would have to watch it. I don't expect much from the system right now. If it persists and regains convection, we may. If it stays weak (more likely) then it won't be much if anything.
Continue to watch the tropics!
The chance for redevelopment of TD#10 by tomorrow night:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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Beyond that, the waves off africa haven't been able to persist for long.
See clark's blog below for more in depth discussion.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Satellite Image of Irene with Storm Track Overlays
Infrared color Satellite Image of Irene with Storm track Overlays
QuikSCAT image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Spaghetti Plot from BoatUS
NRL Monterey Irene Imagery
Former TD 10:
Satellite imagery from NASA/GHCC
Animated Model Plot of ExTD#10
QuikSCAT image of TD 10
NRL Monterey TD 10 Imagery
NOAA Buoy 41041 near TD 10
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Former TD #10 still looking disorganized at noon today. LLC seems to be struggling for identidy or hidden beneath convection firing on the NW side. The Globals don't really do much of anything with this feature, and the has been hot and cold, the 6z version dimishing it. The environment is terrible right now with the persistent SW'erly shear; wonder if it will get favorable at all. Right now its No Way Jose from former TD#10. But things can change quickly. Enjoy the lull; but keep a stock of your hurricane supplies.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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What happend to JB on the Accuweather site? They dismantle him for getting all the storms wrong this year almost? IM j/k I like his videos but its not up there. I guess hes on vacation?
It seems like they may have taken them off. Maybe too many hits and they decided to stop giving them away. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:00 PM)
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge.
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Go Boilermakers
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Anyways, My idea of the sw carribean starting up tomorrow look on track still. Im going out on a limb here and only 1 model agrees with me and that is the .
There is soo much shear going on with the upper low over the central and western carribean right now for the next 48 hours that any low will be weak. I dont think it will be noticed more until 72hours when it gets off the Honduras coast near Belieze and heads NW or NNW along the eastern Yucitan of Mx. I think conditions will improve for this to become a depression and possibly a storm. It could move then more wnw towards the western gulf or get trapped if it stays more e in the central gulf by next Sunday into Monday. A trough will dig into the great lakes and Ne U.S. late this week into the weekend. How far down to the S.E U.S will determine how far N it gets. First it still has to form in a couple days if at all.
With the former TD it does have a chance to get its status back but not till at least tomorrow evening and even then I think they will wait for recon to check it out. Again with trough coming down this weekend it should do the same as Irene unless the trough moves out quicker then expected early next week.
scottsvb
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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"Joe is on the Point/Counterpoint Video today. He still sees former #10 breaking through the ridge."
Of course he does...why am I not suprised? Then again, maybe I should be glad he thinks that because that means it probably won't happen. Seriously, I personally love these storms for the waves but hate them for what they can do to peoples lives and property so I'm hoping it doesn't break through the ridge and just dies a quiet death out there.
Edited by richisurfs (Tue Aug 16 2005 02:29 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Irene latest scatt is 5.0/5.0 looks to be close to 100MHP
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Translation...please.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The latest satellite intensity estimate from one of the three agencies the uses -- and the only one publicly available -- now has an estimate of 5.0 on the storm, which generally translates to an intensity of about 105mph. The full website can be found here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html. I'd go into a full discussion about the technique, but it'd take quite a long time; nevertheless, it is an attempt to categorize storm intensity by the overall cloud pattern & structure (as determined by satellite) for a given tropical cyclone. It does a pretty good job and is often all we have for intense storms well out at sea, but does have some error in it from time to time and is generally a subjective categorization process requiring a lot of practice, training, and experience on the observer's part. Efforts are underway to create an objective system, primarily at UWisconsin, but that is just experimental at this time.
As for TD 10...it is looking a little disorganized at this time with perhaps two separate low-level centers due to this morning's convective burst to the west of the old center. Nevertheless, conditions are improving with the system and we may well see something sometime tomorrow once again out of this one. Model guidance that picks it up is now trending more towards recurvature and an impact near Bermuda down the line, but that is 5 days out and for a weak system, I'm not sure how much I trust the models. We'll watch it.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Actually. I saw the point\counterpoint video yesterday and today. JB doesn't have old TD10 "break thru the ridge", rather he sees it riding the southern boundary of a strong Atlantic ridge all the way to the east coast of Florida. I don't put any stock in predictions that far out, but he's making a point about the global pattern he sees the next 5-6 days.
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RJB
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Ed, a few sites about technique:
What it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
What the levels mean: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
A generalized "satellite" to number comparison: http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm
(Thanks to whoever it was that posted that last one here here for me a month back!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Interesting at least one of the main models shows TD10 (remnant) heading west-northwest and then west-southwest toward florida over the next 5 days, though never has it reach the state before it ends the loop. Unfortunately for JB there is a LOT of stuff it has to survive through before we can even begin to say that track may be right.
Personally I think TD10 will return to TD strength, and possibly TS strength, but whether it heads toward land or goes fish spinning, no clue. It is too hard to predict such a weak system, especialyl since system's intensity is a heavy modifier in track and there isn't good guidance on strength forcasting for open waves.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
... IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
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La Nimo
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
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Old Sailor posted it at being 100MPH at 2:50PM today hmmmm..
Hey we go again TD10 or what use to be 10 is in a downward phase again seems like a rerun of yesterday and day before. This one is going to be very hard to predict.
together they constitute a post. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:05 PM)
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pedro
Unregistered
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I been seeing that the former TD 10 is increasing some convection the past few hours. Dont think were finish with this one at least for know. Must keep a close eye on it for the next few days.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i think she wont be upgraded, if she is at all, till late wednesday or early thursday and be a threat to the Bahahmas and Florida from what some of the models show..hopefully not because that would be like starting a trend..the J storms hit florida so im hoping thats false..we'll enjoy the lull while it lasts, which from the waves on africa doesnt look like long.
if it gets named it's jose. odd calling it she for that reason.. i just use 'it' for storms because calling everything by feminine pronouns makes you sound like a cliche pirate. arr, she be a good ship, matey. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 16 2005 07:08 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Doesn't look like tropical depression 10 wants to give up. He's a fighter. If he reforms it should be around Thursday?
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lawgator1
Unregistered
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GOES Floater 1 is on T.D.10 so we are getting, what, half hour loop update? A nice burst of convection there to the northwest of the (well, ONE of the) spins in T.D. 10.
What say the track models if he/she/it/they survive?
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I'm wondering if that spin to the northeast might be the start of some mid level circulation that got sheared off. This burst of convection 12 hours ahead of the diurnal max is kind of interesting. I think this is only temporary there is still plenty of shear around. The RGB picks up both spins,but the LLC (moving west) in the SW quad seems dominant.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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16/2345 UTC 16.4N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 10
16/1745 UTC 16.2N 53.3W T1.0/1.0 10
16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10
16/0615 UTC 15.5N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 10
15/2345 UTC 15.1N 50.3W TOO WEAK 10
Looks like RTD Ten are getting better organized I would actually expect regeneration tonight or tomorrow morning maybe later than that but I think it looks good enough to be classified by tomorrow morning. Especially since the Shear is weakening.
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