Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
First off, a quick question for everyone: do you like these daily updates when there are active storm events, or prefer fewer posts on the whole that are edited within threads on the main page?
Clark, and all the mets in general; I think there is great value in a conntinuing, even continuous flow of updates regardless of if an active storm exists or not. Storm genesis and overall pattern development is just as valuable in its own way as is insight on development and path of developed systems are. In general, one of the main features of this forum is the opportunity for us 'great unwashed masses', (read amateurs) to learn. While we may not have the education or desire to become mets ourselves, we wouldn't be here in most cases if we weren't interested in the subject at hand. Any insight from the pros helps us learn and improve our own skills. If we want to be spoon-fed, we will read the Tropical Outlook reports which basically say "we are/are not tracking blah-blah and no other storms are likely to form before x-day". That's fine, but it is nice to have an insight as to 'WHY?'. Your and other mets frequent comments help us understand; why?.
I, for one, thank you for your (frequent) insightful posts!
IMNSHO
Richard
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks like the models have swung more to the west and south over the last few days with old TD10. Probably in part due to the more westerly motion and track the last 48 hrs. Looks increasingly like a FL or possibly GOM threat down the road - that is, if it develops into more than a weak system.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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RJB
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a totally off the wall Question - - Noticed on WV loop this morning that an ULL appears to be moving west in the northern GOM?? With existing SST's in the gulf being above average, is there any chance for additional surface development with this system? Also - - Why is it in retrograde?? Shouldn't it be drifting East instead of West?? Just curious.
Still learning in FL. 
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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On the water vapor loop this morning there appears to be low (ULL) spinning at about 21N/61W. Looks like it is possibly pulling the X-TD10 in that direction.
Any thoughts about the possible effects?
Michael
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Td 10 is looking better this morning on the floater 1 vis sat image. Due to its LLC persistance I believe that # 10 will come back to life shortly. There now seems to be a trend setting in with these small systems which is they are able for some strange reason to survive even in the worst environment when in times past they would be totally sheared away and never to be heard from again. Maybe (just a thought) thatthe shear this year iis not reaching into the lower levels where yhe actual LLC is located allowing it to survive long enough to get into better enviromental conditions. If #10 does survive where will it go? With the trends from the eariler storms F, H & I we see them moving toward the wnw into the western atlantic to recurve around the outer edges of the Bermuda high. My personal belief would be that this one will do the same if it gets n of the greater Antilles. Reasoning. Climatology and the track of past storms from this season. This storms track may have a similar track feature to that of Floyd &Irene from 1999 if it get far enough w. However even if it does happen to threaten Fl I do not see it crossing into the GOM at this time. Future strength will all depend on how much shear will be in the area after it gets futher w. Just my thoughts from many years of coastal living in eastern nc. J.C.
there's a mix from the globals as to what happens early next week (i.e., depth of trough, amplitude and progression). in the next couple of days we'll have a better idea where the recurvature path/profile of system will be. as for these systems surviving shear.. we get those every year just about. i personally think they declassified TD 10 too quickly... it never 'opened up'.. just got a weak/sheared convective pattern. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 17 2005 10:15 AM)
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
First off, a quick question for everyone: do you like these daily updates when there are active storm events, or prefer fewer posts on the whole that are edited within threads on the main page?
Quote:
I agree with Richard. The information provided on a continuous basis provides for education, and often entertainment for those of us without the detailed backgrounds in the field. The ability to read the sometimes diverse opinions adds to our ability to learn and better understand the issues. As someone recently said about JB, he may not always be right, but he provides some interesting analysis of the conditions. I believe the same is true within these forums and appreciate the interaction.
I am responsbile for Emergency Management within my City and constantly monitor the site to get an idea of what issues may be impacting us far down the road. We often cannot wait for the five day forecast tracks to start indicating a threat to our area. Many of the preparatory actions we must take often take longer than that (it takes three days alone just to secure our City Hall when in a threatening situation). the information obtained from these discussions allows me a bit of extra time to get ready for possible problems.
Michael
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
On the water vapor loop this morning there appears to be low (ULL) spinning at about 21N/61W. Looks like it is possibly pulling the X-TD10 in that direction.
Any thoughts about the possible effects?
Michael
10 still looks very poorly organized, if at all, this morning. I think the most significant effect from that ULL is that it is keeping the SW shear relatively high over 10.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the floater 1 loop, the LLC is still persisting with a small convection flare-up near that center. For the most part, the SW shear is also persisting. A surge in the low level easterlies seems to be overtaking 10 too.
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Michael
PWS
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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What does ULL stand for?
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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cape verde systems which this is have always been hard to kill. models are showing a more west path toward bahamas and Fl.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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ULL is Upper Level Low
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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look at two this morning, says sheer is to weaken. maybe TD later today. and leeward and virgin isl. should be monitoring this closely.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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to answer the subject header... yep. the will probably reclassify it today. the shear which had been in the 10-20kt range over the system is now over the 5-15 kt range and more out of the south. the convection has been more or less sustained (with only short breaks in the bursts) for the last 24-36 hrs. system has been moving between 270-290 for the last 60 hours or so... gotten into a position where it can affect the weather in the extreme ne caribbean. the system could have been classified all along since it's retained a closed rotary circulation over warm waters, but all that convection the likes to see should stick around now that the relative shear is on the wane. system should track in the general direction of the bahamas, just north of the islands, for the next 2 days. there's a broad weakness in the ridge near 70w and it may start to turn up into that. early next week a shortwave will dig into the ne us and may either keep digging and amplify the ridge off the east coast (which would turn the storm north and accelerate it) or split and insert either a stair step into the track if the system is still to the south... or just recurve it past bermuda. if the tracks of the last three storms in that part of the basin are any clue, recurvature is the ticket. the basic synoptic pattern which has existed since late july has only altered location somewhat, not really changed to a great degree. the caveat will be how much development along a post-frontal/coastal low off hatteras occurs.. the globals that favor it greatly recurve 10 unanimously.. the ones with less dramatic development favor its continued wnw/nw movement to east of the bahamas by monday.
the canadian and a couple of globals are developing a caribbean/w gulf storm for either texas or mexico late mid/late next week (perhaps the precursor is either the retrograding trough energy n of hispaniola or the disturbance being drawn northwestward out of venezuela.
numerous globals are suggesting a cape verde system next week also. the current high-amplitude wave doesn't really have any support... strong convergence and a monsoon trough are setting up near the african coast. should be convergent area near the eastern caribbean by the weekend also.
eastpac trying to develop one disturbance sw of the baja and will probably have another near the gulf of tehuantepec in a couple of days. has weakened some, but the zonal anomalies favoring activity are still going to serve as a somewhat favorable environmental factor over the next few weeks.
HF 1441z17august
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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cape verde systems which this is have always been hard to kill. models are showing a more west path toward bahamas and Fl.
You said it! What's going on? These systems that one would expect to get sheared to shreds are turning into hanger-oners. Let's just hope this is just a fluke and not a trend being established for the rest of the season or very well may have to update their updated forecast for the season.
My thoughts on former TD10 - I believe that if it's survived the past several days in the hostile conditions that it has, this one's a fighter. It might have been ropa-doped a bit but, it's making a come back. I don't think though that will give it it's offical stamp until they see more sustained bursts of convection. My guess is going to be for tomorrow late afternoon (5pm). Early model runs suggest that Florida is once again wearing the target. But, alas it's way too early to start speculating on that sort of thing.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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what computer model may i ask? all the ones i see dont show that so since you said the models please tell me which model.
click on the model plot below the main article. most are dynamic and statistical models. the globals generally are further north, but they have it initialized very poorly. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 17 2005 11:54 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The water temps here this morning are an amazing 90 degrees!That has to be bad news if any storms come this way.Former TD10 does seem like a fighter,and needs to be watched.I think the upgrade a 5pm tommorow seems very possible.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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majmarker
Unregistered
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Hey everyone. I'm new to the Cocoa area and haven't even met the neighbors yet. I'm just about to leave town for a week to go get the rest of my family, and I am watching the tropical situation.
I'm trying to decide whether to install my storm shutters or not. I feel like if I do, and there's no definite storm on the way, it will advertise to "bad people" that we're not during that whole period. So I have mixed feelings about just throwing the shutters up... Any thoughts/suggestions? I've heard a lot about last year's season and don't want to take any chances
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD 10 Lives - - Aircraft Recon scheduled for 2 flights to investigate - posted at 11:00 am to day.
Still learning in FL
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Theses flights are scheduled for tomorrow.
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