NONAME
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How close is that to the estimated center?
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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emackl
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Hmmmm, I watched it this AM!! Don't know why it's not there now!!! He talked about 10 making it through and possibly being "a problem". Also, went into the next wave that's to come off Africa in a couple days.
Also, like Hank, thought it should have been a TD the whole time.
Edited by emackl (Thu Aug 18 2005 06:32 PM)
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The Force 2005
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I believe with all the harassment he has been recieving lately with his predictions, he may have went on a sabatical. Just a weather guess!!!
Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Aug 18 2005 06:31 PM)
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Brad in Miami
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19.0/60.3: wind 140 degrees, 22 kt (at flight level, of course)
19.5/59.7: wind 140 degrees, 22 kt
Now it does look like they're having trouble finding a center. Those 2 recon reports in full:
URNT11 KNHC 181819
97779 18174 50190 60300 03000 14022 24232 /0016
41020
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 20
URNT11 KNHC 181831
97779 18304 50195 59700 03000 14022 24232 /0016
41420
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 21
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Brad in Miami
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No vortex message yet, and looking unlikely they'll find a closed circulation.
I can't find observation 22, but here's 23 (summary: 17.9/59.7; wind 120 degrees, 18 kt; pressure 1016 mb):
URNT11 KNHC 181909
97779 19004 50179 59700 03000 12018 24232 /0016
41315
82426 82515
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 23
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The Force 2005
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I will go out on the limb and say that old#10 is no more. Like Irene, 10 has endured way too much shear for it to gather strength at this point, which it should have by now if it was going to. Pressure is seen rising which is a tell tale sign of nothing there. So the RECON, which was relunctly held back for this reason, should go out and investigate the SW Carib for activity which is growing stronger of the two entities.
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Brad in Miami
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Just noticed this observation while looking through the ex-TD10 recon reports.
Anyone know what this data is from - a training flight? Another flight heading out to former TD10 (which would seem odd)? A flight heading down to the Carib. that isn't listed in the day's flight plan?
I suspect a training flight, but don't know enough about the codes to be certain:
URNT10 KNHC 181920
97779 19074 50295 83100 70100 99005 66751 /5765
81381 83835
RMK AF308 WXWXA 05081817308 OB 01
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HanKFranK
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couldn't tell what was going on this morning, but the cloud debris has sheared away some revealing the situation. the surface center started poking out around midday and is now well ahead of the scattered convective area/mid level circulation.. up near 19.5/62.5. it may be just barely closed, but is probably open. this piece is currently trying to run the shear zone... highly uncertain it will make it. the mid level vortmax has slowed down and is trudging wnw back at 18/59.5... the system may try to redevelop on either of these features or completely lose its definition from here. it is probably finally dead, though... unless the convection returns in some strong bursts this evening.
HF 1933z18august
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Brad in Miami
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Wow--good eyes, HF. Looking at the visible loop, I can see the feature (probable former LLC) that is now at 19.5/62.5. Looks like it might have been closed a couple of hours ago, but appears to have completely dissipated/opened up since then.
If that was the LLC - and looking at that loop and focusing on that area, I suspect you're right it was - I can't imagine that feature will regenerate. Maybe something will re-develop back where you see the MLC, but that feature ahead looks about as dead as they come.
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The Force 2005
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Hank,
Just curious, why do you report in "Zulu" time at the end of your posts?
because i can. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 18 2005 11:13 PM)
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Clark
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Scott, I just don't see it there. The convection has gone kaput, leaving a mid-level vortex there near 13.5N/82W, with no real signs of anything down at the surface. Whatever turning that was there at the mid-levels further south closer to 10N is gone now, leaving behind no signs of a surface low. The surface obs, if anything, suggest something inland over western Panama. Winds along the coast in Costa Rica have been out of the ENE today, while winds in central Panama have gradually come around to the SE from the east earlier today. I'm looking at obs over the course of 5 hours now, to go with those earlier today. That would suggest any turning is over the western part of Panama, if at all, and given wind speeds of generally 5-8mph that I'm seeing, is very weak. Pressure are low, granted, but there doesn't appear to be any corresponding surface circulation. The mid-level vortex (that turning on the visible...take note of the mid-level cloud motions versus the spotty, duller low-level cloud motions) can help spin-up one in time, now that the convection has died out, but it's just not there yet. Just how I see it...
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Hawkeyewx
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Clark, I also do not see evidence at this time of any surface circulation in the sw Caribbean. There is a lot of mid and upper level cloud debris which is making it difficult to see the surface flow, but as best as I can tell there is nothing significant going on at the surface.
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damejune2
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I was checking what JB had to say about TD10 and he really seems to think it will be something in a few days. He says it will "bust" through the shear zone and the ridge and head towards the Bahamas and possibly the US. Other sites i checked haven't totally written the storm off, but they don't seem to be as concerned as JB and that includes the . Even the wunderground met's blog talks about the storm intensifying in a day or two and heading towards the Bahamas. Either JB is right or the doesn't want to jump the gun. You guys have stated that this afternoon TD10 didn't look too good; wunderground said differently....i'll stick with your opinions and the ......thanks for the great information!
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craigm
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Everybody take a look at this color enhanced 85ghz wind image. This is a Poes image.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-sswd-loop.html
Then read this for interpreting 85ghz images
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/training-bin/training.cgi
XTD10 is probably doomed but the energy at the surface just seems to persist.I know you all are fairly bashful but feel free to comment.
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emackl
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In JB's defense, TD 10 looked much better this a.m. when he did his video. He may be having a rough spell but I think 10 fooled many others too.
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Clark
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I don't doubt that the energy with ex-TD 10 will get towards the Bahamas, as JB says. He figured the disturbance would be amplified today; instead, it's weakened through the day. However, watching his video, he's using very weak signatures from the models to try to send the storm to near 75-80W. The only way the system threatens Florida in the current & forecast regime is if it remains a very weak entity...TD or less. Any development of the system -- not nearly as likely now as before -- and it heads off towards open water under deeper layer steering flow from an approaching trough and weakness along the coastline as well as the natural northward tendency of larger storms. Looking at the steering flow, you can make a case for it getting to Florida -- just not as anything significant, and that's where the whole "using JB with caution" caveat that Steve mentioned yesterday comes into play. As with any guidance, including models or people (myself included), use with caution.
More significant would be the SW Caribbean feature for the western Gulf or any potential development alnog the end of an unusually strong frontal boundary predicted to head for the northern Gulf over the weekend, though the latter probably isn't likely and the former still needs some time. Africa's about to give us some waves, but I'm not sure I buy the wave at 5N/20E (not W) that JB is looking at affecting the Lesser Antilles at the end of next week. It might well develop, but anything that does develop is going to tend to miss the islands to the north.
We shall see...
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Steve H1
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I dunno, last pix as the sun is fading show both areas of 10L firing convection. The LLC racing toward the WNW is firing convection right near the center, and the mid-level center shows turning and looks like its trying to organize, but moving quite slowly. I still think something will come of all this. Bizarre.
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dem05
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Hey gang, Looks to me like exTD10 may be giving it the college try again. I don't know if you caught the last few visible images of not, but looking at the NASA GHCC site ( http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ ) it looks to me that a band was starting to form to the north, wrapping to the east, and one to the south, wreapping to the west. I'm not looking at that mid level area that got left behind earlier today, but that area around 20N, 62.5W...
Any thoughts???
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rmbjoe1954
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I see former TD10 getting convection to its SW. This seems (again) that the shear is letting up.
I wonder if the flare-up will survive the night. Tomorrow may bring an additional chapter to the long saga of the once (and possibly future) TD10 as it advances upon less shear and warmer waters..
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NONAME
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Did Recon ever send back a Vortex message from former TD 10?
Nope -- they did not find a low-level center with the disturbance, thus no vortex message. The mentioned that it had degenerated into a tropical wave in the 5:30p . --Clark
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 18 2005 11:28 PM)
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