NONAME
Weather Guru
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The models should be able to get a good grip on TD 10 tomorrow when recon goes in there. I'm thinking they will find a tropical storm in it. This year hasn't done very well with sheared storms this year and so the intensity is usually higher than what they say when recon goes in there remember Franklin and Harvey!¿?
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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NHC In its surface forecast says TD 10 will be over Porte Rico at 48hours and in the northern Bahamas in 72hours and has a ridge extending from notherneastern gulf to the a high in the atlantic.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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And as the ridge pulls back eastward over the Atlantic then that should pick up TD10 in a northerly direction following in Irene's geenral path.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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all of the models show something in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours (very close to where Gert developed) and something off the coast of Africa in 120 hours
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Here is an Intresting projected Path!
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 17 2005 11:03 PM)
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pedro
Unregistered
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Dont think this system is going to turn north like Irene strong high pressure would make it move more to the west and west north west.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Something about 10 just says "It won't give up easily" and the continuing convection just adds to that idea.
The storm tracks, while highly inaccurate on weak storms, certainly place the southeastern seaboard under the gun: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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lonny307
Unregistered
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I pretty sure this system will stay east of Florida. A front/trough is heading down the NE coast next week. The front could make it to N. Fl. This could open up the tropics. Starting next week. That is what some of the global models were depicting. Have to wait and see if it verifies. 
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf
Edited by craigm (Wed Aug 17 2005 07:55 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Ex TD 10's convective pattern is looking rather disorganized this evening.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
The system is also running into another area of shear at this time.
Judging from what I see now, I believe that tomorrow (Thursday) is the absolute earliest that we see the reclassification of TD 10. But I'm thinking more Friday, possibly even Saturday.
A longer post is coming up, perhaps tomorrow.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it's either at the diurnal minimum or in real trouble for the first time in its life. there hasn't been any deep convection.. just scattered stuff.. since earlier today. it does look like the circulation broadened some today as well. be kinda anticlimatic for TD 10 to persist for 3 days after declassification, make us all expect it to regenerate.. and then puff out as it nears an improved environment.
i'd say the earlier near certainty of regeneration is down to a strong possibility. if the convective pattern stays weak for the next few hours the chances begin to lengthen significantly.
it has overnight to liven up. if it still looks this way tomorrow morning i'd expect recon to be cancelled.
HF 0028z18august
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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I remember Irene almost when kaput right before it went in to a favorable environment and then just explode with convection the next morning. I think that is what 10 is doing must be some kind of adjustment to favorable environment.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well they didnt upgrade it to a TD at 5pm and rightfully so. The pressure maybe be there but the lack of T-Storms near the center and us all seeing the flare ups are being induced by the upper low to its NW, tells us the system is just holding its own. I wouldnt be surprised if they cancel the flight tomorrow unless a major flare-up happens later tonight. Still its not the system doing it,,its the upper low to its NW. Seriously though, I wouldnt worry about this until maybe near 70w if its still around and by then its a system going to be pulled out due to the strong trough off the east coast by the weekend into early next week.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Most are watching X TD10 or 96L, I'm more interested in that big flare up in the central Caribbean this evening if the convection hangs around for 12 to 24 hours this could be trouble no signs of convection moving right now..
Dave
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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That activity in the central Caribbean is just south of a sharp upper-level trough across much of the Greater Antilles and central Caribbean, largely forced by divergent upper-level winds. If the trough were to fill and the convection persist, it might do something, but odds are that the trough will stay in place. It'll help to keep the convection going, but it should stay unorganized as a result. As the energy moves more to the NW, it might have a better shot...just my thinking right now, though.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The central carribean area looks good on infrered, but its induced by the trough and upper low extending from the western carribean NE through hispaniola NE into the central and northern Atlantic. A ridge is trying to form near Aruba extending into the sw carribean. Expect the upperlow to be extended into a trough over central america over the next day or so as a ridge from Aruba moves west into ther western Carribean. A low is forming now just east of Nicaragua. This will move slowly NW to just east of Belieze tomorrow and into the Yucitan and BOC or GOM later this weekend. Still I forecast this to have the best chance of developing.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Clark:
I hope you are right, just that history has shown that a large convection in Central or Western Caribbean that hangs in there for 24 hours some how becomes a Storm.
Dave
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>where?~danielw
It's an attachment to his post.
Steve
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf
The link in the site show this as a possible invest. It also show it at 16N and 56W. The recon on the first flight tomorrow is at 19.2N and 61.2W. So is this the same or is the al90 that the is showing a all different area?
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Man-I thought ex TD 10 looked bad earlier this evening...really starting to look like hell now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
As HF said earlier tonight, this system might be experiencing its first bout with real trouble. I'm beginning to lean towards no development...we'll see how it looks in the morning.
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