Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Has anybody looked at model 16 days out, the model is showing one big bad Low coming to East Coast, Hope that one doesn't come true..
Dave
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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link? for model
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Do you have a link Sailor? I would like to look at that
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Linkage: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_384.shtml
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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i know i love my baseball teams message board NOBODY is allowed to post something that either something someone said or about without a LINK.
They even got a nice little thing 2 smiliey faces holding up a link sign its great.
So would be a link.
does anybody know what ralph is trying to say? maybe you'd like to translate that for us. or just delete it yourself if it isn't on topic. -HF
I think he's saying that on his favorite baseball team's message board, they have a policy where if you share something, you've gotta back it up with a link...so he wanted one for the model here as well. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 18 2005 12:58 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Going to post the Model link but see it has been done by another poster..
Dave
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'd be highly suspicious of the output right now, as the different flavors of the used for medium range forecasting don't agree on the upcoming pattern features... and most of the other models are way out of sync at long range also. if you want to keep tabs on that stuff it's linked off the page www.ncep.noaa.gov
click on 6-10 day and prognostic discussion for that.. the and models can be found on the model analyses and forecasts tab, also.
all of the model disagreement over the forecast out from 3-4 days suggests that the pattern will be transitioning. my take is that it means that whatever tropical cyclone behavior we've been seeing over the past month or so will probably be replaced by something else.
former 10L's forecast is extremely uncertain. almost all of the model runs today have it moving through the upper trough ahead of it and continuing wnw/nw. there is that weakness in the ridge near 70w.. but it isn't much of a weakness.. and won't be enough to turn it up unless the storm is deepening. ahead of that is a ridge that various models are showing as persisting.. separating features below 30 deg latitude or so from the trough to the north. the trough's evolution on models makes me think that it will be strong but not very deep.. and will have some component split sw next week. this evolution of features favors ridging replacing the troughiness we've seen in the western caribbean and gulf, as well as lowering pressures at the surface.. most of the models are in agreement on this piece of the puzzle. numerous globals are also showing a westward-moving tropical cyclone in the cape verde region next week also.
10L is the thing i keep returning to. the convection went down earlier this evening but has returned some.. the realignment of the upper trough has increased shear once again. it has kept a low trajectory and should move very close or over the northern lesser antilles tomorrow night. a majority of the models favor its continued wnw movement... , , ukmet, , etc track its vorticity or low to a position near the bahamas late in the weekend. has it stalled near 22/65 for days. as shallow as it remains.. if it survives the next day or two the consensus prog looks good to me.
whether anything stirs up near the bahamas/off the east coast with the energy cut off from the /frontal leavings off the carolinas is less of a likelihood, but these areas need to be watched as well.
i did think the basin would be more active at this point, a couple of weeks ago. has petered out quite a bit before the enhancing anomalies could really take hold, and is oscillating near and just below neutral. still based on climo and the transitional pattern we should see an active span in the next two weeks.. i'd say 3-4 named storms before the month ends.
HF 0439z18august
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Looks a LOT better on IR this morning (especially when considering that it looked like it was on life support last night). Visible still not too impressive, but I think the odds of reclassification are once again high. Pending recon, perhaps 5 or 11 PM today? I'm sure the will be willing to classify the system (even if it were to not 100% deserve it) so that they can get warnings up for the islands. Also, difficult to telll, but on IR still appears that the system is moving W. That, combined with the S shift in a few of the models today, perhaps increases the threat of a keys hit. I'm still not sold that the trough won't turn this puppy up before it hits land, however.
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
models: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
Edited by Big Red Machine (Thu Aug 18 2005 07:10 AM)
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Figment
Unregistered
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"Ridging and SSTs are favorable along the coast, moisture is increasing (and projected to continue to do so), but those pesky troughs are still there along 40W. If those can move north or out of the picture, conditions will become a lot more favorable for something to develop. Maybe later this month."
Thanks but no thanks Clark. I know how "exciting" these systems can be for some, but most of us in central Florida would prefer that those"pesky" troughs remain in place! Thrills can be had at any amusement park, rather than at the cost of peoples lives.
anything that hangs around harrassing anything for a month is pesky. TD 10 is pesky too... it's been dead for four days and won't stop thumping around inside its coffin. you're insinuating that clark wants death and destruction and trying to shame him.. when you should be paying attention to the forecast ideas. personally, i think driving is fun.. but you a lot more likely to be killed driving than you are by a hurricane. shame on me. -HF
I'm not saying anything about what I want to happen with that statement. I'm saying that we've had troughs out there that just have kept replacing themselves, which by definition is pesky. I wish no storm upon anyone -- and quite frankly, if a storm develops into a hurricane out at 40 W, it is much more likely to recurve harmlessly out to sea than it is to hit land.
I'm from Central Florida myself; my family still lives there. They had to deal with passing directly over their house and flooding from and Jeanne. I'm going to be one of the last people you see wish death & destruction on anyone. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 18 2005 12:49 PM)
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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Those of us living on the florida east coast (and on a barrier island, to boot)prefer less excitment than hurricanes may bring. From the looks of the infared sat images, there is a lot more brewing coming off the africa coast. If the ridging holds up then we're looking for systems to track way more south or move more northerly.
FYI, this is my first post here but i've been lurking a while. I'm also a professional emergency management guy and a national red cross disaster services committee chair.
----- Welcome!
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 18 2005 07:54 AM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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lonny307
Unregistered
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http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale
I'm going to say bye to TD10/Jose.
Edit - let's not wishcast please..
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 18 2005 08:38 AM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Automated SST mapping test. SST data current as of 5:30pm EST yesterday.
Links to a large file (1000 x 590 @ 92.3k). Dial up users beware.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i was watching an Accuweather pundit the other night make an argument: 'look at the definition of a tropical depression: a closed rotary warm-core circulation over warm waters with winds below 34kt. it doesn't say anything about thunderstorms.' the criteria i keep returning to is TD 4 from 2000... a very tiny but tight low-level swirl that emerged from a complex east of florida... that often had one tiny thunderstorm sitting on its inner band. i would argue that TD 10 has been a tropical depression all along, as it has met the requirements assigned by the since august 12-13. after watching irene traverse the atlantic for days as a sheared system, with the center exposed more than covered.. i'd say the very similar TD 10 has been the same type of system. x TD 10 has also taken a track that is bringing it very near the ne caribbean... recon discovering a tropical depression this afternoon might require immediate watches.
the needs to come up with a more consistent policy towards what constitutes a tropical depression. they have a definition with no minimum threshold, randomly add other criteria, and often choose to ignore very plain evidence with sheared systems. because they are inherently hard to forecast and often unstable, probably ignores them as much as possible to keep their verification stats up. if you don't issue a forecast... it can't be wrong. it's one of the biggest cop-outs in weather forecasting.
HF 1328z18august
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Nice map Skeeto, thanks!
Former 10 looking better on the I.R. loops this morning, and it will be interesting to see what the recon comes back with. This one's a fighter for sure.
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Check the Surf
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
,,, often choose to ignore very plain evidence with sheared systems. because they are inherently hard to forecast and often unstable, probably ignores them as much as possible to keep their verification stats up. if you don't issue a forecast... it can't be wrong. it's one of the biggest cop-outs in weather forecasting.
HF, it is hard to argue with arguments like that so I think the criterial *should* be better defined than they are. But, apparantly they aren't for now so that means what the chooses to do in cases like this are 'legal' or correct, albeit inconsistant. I must observe that the is charged by international agreements to provide forecasting services for tropical weather to many other countries. The word 'legal' used above triggers another question: Is the criteria the uses based somewhat on legal considerations as much as or more than weather or statistical considerations? The seems to be more inconsistant when nothing is in immediate danger. Notable exceptions to that do include recent storms killing thousnds in the islands that weren't classified or under-classified storms, but I get the impression over the years that if fish are the only ones affected, the witholds its 'blessing' until the issue is forced. It is frustrating to many of us, but it is not dangerous unless no one is watching and I'll bet even though unclassified, xTD10 was being closely watched by them.XTD10 is now too close to ignore much longer so I think unless it obviously dissipates PDQ, the will be reclassifying it shortly to give the Bahamas or even US interests time to put their acts in gear. Persistancy is one of the criteria often cited for 'watch me', and it would be pretty hard to say that xTD10 hasn't been persistant. The question remains, are legal factors involved?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I believe the issue over classification falls under risk management and the ensuing costs associated with classifying a system. Even the islands would have to implement their version of emergency management protocols which would certainly deplete their national treasuries.
I guess the risk factors have to justify these expenditures and they in turn depend on when the classifies former and future TD10 and other systems with the associated directions and projected strengths.
It all adds up to money.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm just concerned with facts. facts are hard to establish when we can't agree that if 2+2=4, then 2+2 will always =4. the has a similar problem... they view tropical cyclone classification as a subjective matter. the simple solution would be to make a set of criteria that doesn't change with the wind and use it... that would be relatively easy. i would agree with the argument that they're avoiding objectivity because objectivity requires them to produce track/intensity numbers.. and that this is an especially difficult case that they're trying to dodge, since it will make their verification numbers less impressive.
in spite of the improved convective signature this morning.. the low cloud movements have me thinking that the circulation is either further north in the convection or has opened up. recon may not find anything this afternoon. the surface circulation looked good mon-tue, but since yesterday it's gotten indistinct.
HF 1440z18august
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I thought this was a pretty interesting 120 hour forcast track. I don`t know if it will pan out. It sure would get things hoppin on the south east coast if it becomes reality with are TD 10 wanna be...Weatherchef web page
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Thunderbird12
Unregistered
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The definition of a tropical depression on the website is as follows:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone is defined as follows:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.
So thunderstorms (organized convection) are a criteria for a tropical depression because of the tropical cyclone criteria. This may not always be consistently applied, but in the case of former T.D. 10, I think it is more of a case that the system simply wasn't strong enough to be classified. While it isn't listed on the website, in practice there seems to be a lower limit of 30 mph sustained winds in order for a system to be considered a depression. Since T.D. 10 peaked at 35 mph (estimated, obviously) and then weakened, it appears to have fallen into the unofficial category of "remnant low".
organized deep convection.. lets see. the system has been more or less maintaining 1.0-1.5 ratings, implying some degree of organization. considering that the convection pattern has been sheared, it's probably been underrating the actual low-level structure... they've been getting 25-30kt satellite wind vectors to go along with that. after watching irene charge through days of shear with an exposed center, the declares dead a remarkably similar system. it just isn't consistent.
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 18 2005 01:37 PM)
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