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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September?
      #48237 - Thu Aug 18 2005 04:02 PM

My view about this is that he will lower his numbers by 2 or 3 based in the not so active august.

What do the members think about him lowering the numbers or not from the 20 he had in the early august update?


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September? [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48240 - Thu Aug 18 2005 04:48 PM

If August turns out to not be as active as he called for -- I think he said 5 storms in the month -- then perhaps. As of right now, we've got about 2wks left in the month and two storms down. Given climatology, at least one more is a good bet...given model guidance and current conditions, two more isn't out of the realm of possibility within the next week. It all depends on how the rest of the month plays out, but I expect any changes to be relatively minor.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September? [Re: Clark]
      #48271 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:35 PM

i dunno cyc. if we get an activity burst (the type where there are three named storms at once), the month is taken care of. that usually happens in aug/sep in years such as this. he could add a storm just as easily as take one away.
HF 0234z19august


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September? [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48300 - Fri Aug 19 2005 10:05 AM

IMO, the month is young. Still 11 days left. With this crazy season and the conditions in the basins...alot can happen in 11 days. Although, I like the idea of it! Less storms would be great!

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weather1dude
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: SE,USA
Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September? [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #48412 - Sat Aug 20 2005 09:51 AM

Yes. He increased it do to an active July and he will decrease do to a quiet August.

lets assess how quiet august has been around, say, the 29th or 30th. this time of year is when things like to be crazygonuts. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:29 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Will Dr Gray lower his numbers or not in September? [Re: weather1dude]
      #48471 - Sun Aug 21 2005 12:30 PM

Dr. Gray is not that fickle, but it is hard to make forecasts and not have anything happen with all seeing public starring you down.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Invest AAL 97 ??? [Re: Keith234]
      #48526 - Mon Aug 22 2005 09:32 AM

I was checking out UCF`s hurricane and typhoon tracking page and they have a impact map of AAL 97. It was updated Aug 22nd at 09:10:39 EDT. The tract has the system possibily near or on the south east coast of Florida in 120 hours from what I see as a TD or a TS according to the wind speed color codes. Just wondering if I`m reading things right. It caught my interest this morning..........Weatherchef web page

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Invest AAL 97 ??? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #48593 - Mon Aug 22 2005 04:40 PM

Note that the initial time on that one is the 4th of the month at 18Z. It's an old run, and given the set of storms we've had this year, probably Emily (though I don't remember all of the invests for each storm). 97L is much further north than that and will be well beyond there by Sept 4th.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Invest AAL 97 ??? [Re: Clark]
      #48771 - Tue Aug 23 2005 03:27 PM

Dr Gray will not lower his numbers, given we are still ahead of the record at the moment; the way things are going we will break the record for K and L (both August 28), so i think he will keep his numbers the same

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