DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I agree Big Red, I was in the eye of and Jeanne and I am a little nervous here in St Lucie Co. Hopefully it will be a rain event I never take anything for granted. I will be here keeping up with current info. Some mets think it will landfall around Ft Pierce any thoughts anyone? 
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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This is not the place where you want a storm to develop... particularly with nothing to pick it up and throw it out to sea. do we know how long recon is going to stay out there? Because I think we're going to see a TS by 11pm, Too bad there are no Bouys near the region, and it looks like there are only one ship nearby. So, for now we have to be paitent and see how quickly things organize. Once the convection does wrap around this sucker is going to strengthen rapidly. The water temprature is too high, and the islands will only mildly interfere with the storm. Of course, so long as the shear and dry air keeps the convection limited, it'll be stuck at about a 5Kt strengthening every 6 -12 hours.
I also think it'll tend a little right of track then make the hard west turn. (though I think the center also could reform a little south under the midlevel circulation.... so in reality, I have no idea what's going on 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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I'm in Central Florida and we had a wet June and into July but the past few weeks we have been hot and dry and need rain badly. So it depends on where you are in the state I suppose.
The rain we can deal with, lets hope the winds don't get too high.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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My thoughts exactly. I will gladly welcome the rain.I really wish I could read the models better sometimes it is so confusing to me. thats why I depend on all the knowledgable folks here. Your wisdom is greatly appreciated
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I was amazed to see this thing develop into a tropical depression. I am just north of Orlando in Longwood, FL and notice that the is predicting close to Hurricane 1 strenghth. Let's put our faith in these experts and hope it is not worse than that. I don't really want to deal with everything that is required to prepare for a Hurricane coming through this area.
I notice that the projected path is a huge cone. Can anyone explain why there is such a large cone for a system that is so close by?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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OrlandoDan:
The models are highly divergent. Some take it south of Florida into the Gulf (BAM). Others take it over FL into the Gulf (CMC, , UKMET). And still others take it into FL, bounce it off, then have it move up along the coast and hit NC (GFS, LBAR).
Take a look at the tracks here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL122005mlts.gif
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Unfortunately, a number of the models don't show on the above spegetti plots, but you can see several here:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
EDIT: Fixed model names to match latest model tracks...was using noon models from memory in original post
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 23 2005 07:38 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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GFS shows the storm over Florida in 60 hours.
I believe it may still be too early to call for any exact path. I'd wait until at least the 5AM update - Wed 08/24. This would give the models time to work out the updated variables for meaningful extrapolations.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I agree that cautious watching is in order. Some of the models are much too divergent and the cone of error is just way too large to make an educated "call" on the path of this. Let us (my usual advice) stay vigilent and listen to the experts. The experts did a wonderful job last year in predicting the path of storms. We all know that Charlie's arrival south of its project path was a function of the angle of it coming ashore with the Florida peninsula.
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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
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One thing I noticed with and Jeanne is that they both passed over or close to 75W/25N, This one was around 2 degrees further S, at about 75/23, and predicted to follow sort of the same path as and Jeanne as far as going across Florida, except further South (by about the same 2 degrees of distance I'm guessing.) I haven't double-checked all my facts, but I am pretty sure about the 75/25, as far as and Jeanne.
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Quote:
discussion from Stewart was fantastic for a depression! I really think he is more enthusiastic than other mets there at .
Look where they put (Katrina ?) in 3 days; right up my nose.
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
Just 23.2 statute miles away.
<<<Look @ my location. 
I had other plans!
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Tue Aug 23 2005 09:31 PM)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I did read one comment that said they thought it would landfall in the WPB area. I really hope if one is going to take the same path as and Jeanne it is a TS and nothing more. On the WPB channel they just gave an update and said by 11 PM they expect to issue warnings for South Florida. He is also saying it is expected to make landfall around Ft Lauderdale area.
He just said expected to landfall Thurs. 2:00 also forcast subject to change
Edited by DebbiePSL (Tue Aug 23 2005 08:08 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
OrlandoDan:
The models are highly divergent. Some take it south of Florida into the Gulf (BAM). Others take it over FL into the Gulf (CMC, , UKMET). And still others take it into FL, bounce it off, then have it move up along the coast and hit NC (GFS, LBAR).
Take a look at the tracks here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL122005mlts.gif
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Unfortunately, a number of the models don't show on the above spegetti plots, but you can see several here:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
EDIT: Fixed model names to match latest model tracks...was using noon models from memory in original post
--RC
Actually, I think the models are in pretty good agreement - if u took the average of the Dynamic and Global Models u pretty much get the track. Most them bring it up somewhere near the south end of FL and across. Will we see some changes - absolutely. If there is a change I would tend to say a little further north on the east coast and maybe not such a hard left (more W-NW) across the peninsula. There will be a rather large blocking high off the east coast in about 72 hours which will prevent a northward up the coast or NE out to sea scenario. The mysterious LBAR is the only model that takes it that path. Given the synoptic conditions its got to come across the peninsula at some point.
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RJB
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hurricaneye
Unregistered
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Looks like storms are firing up on the west side , and storms to the east are connecting or wrapping around on latest ir and wv images, might just be pulling itself together?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The added an environmental synoptic flight for tomorrow night plus most likely another for Thursday.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC
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RJB
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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With all this discussion about the new TD12 people haven't mentioned much about 97L. is saying that 97L isn't in the most favorable of conditions, but it might slowly strengthen. Looking at the IR loop, I have to say that 97L is looking very good. Given the classification a 6 hours ago at 1.5, I'm a little surprised it hasn't been upgraded to a TD yet. If there was a recon flight, I think it probably would be, but it's not close enough to land to warrant a recon yet.
FYI: It is on Floater 2 at SSD now.
--RC
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Warily looking at the right now. The last thing the folks in the Panhandle need is ANOTHER storm. Any further east of the track would mean a deteoration in conditions for residents on the west side of the peninsula.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Warily looking at the right now. The last thing the folks in the Panhandle need is ANOTHER storm. Any further east of the track would mean a deteoration in conditions for residents on the west side of the peninsula.
The models are going to be fairly clueless until there is a well defined circulation center. The possibility for it to slow or stall out as it goes a little further west is definitely there too, I think some confusion from some of them may be showing this.
I'd say by 11AM tomorrow we'll know more.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Mike has a good point, the models are all over the place, and I really wouldn't focus on any one at the moment, you start seeing them cluster up somewhat perhaps in the next day or so and then I'd start paying a lot more attention to them... they're always interesting to see them going every which way.... right now its a case of pick your poison...
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well... forecast track sort of fits what i was thinking the other day, so just going to roll with it. the intensity forecast is probably conservative beyond 60hrs or so. florida is in for a shellacking fri-sat, but probably nothing compared to what folks along the northern gulf coast will get mon-tue next week, if the forecast track verifies. some of the clusterbrain type models have it stalling over florida then moving NE off the east coast now.. but i'm not buying that at all. spurious low/trough is shown east and northeast of the system.. and i think they're trying to take it up baroclinically/recurve the hurricane by overdoing its height field dent. but anyway, the primary should probably be close to where the track is shown.. somewhere from dade up to martin county centered near boca raton... as a low-end hurricane friday afternoon. this isn't a huge limb.. early prog is mon/early tue along the central gulf coast btw PCB and grand isle with an early center near biloxi-mobile... as a major hurricane.
for 97L... it's a sheared tropical depression. if that had been a rated tropical storm that acquired that profile.. that's what it would be called. i'd be interested to see what the unflagged quickscat vectors are on the north side. the center is near 16/39... slowing down and being drawn back in by the trailing convective mass. the globals and dynamic models are all taking it abruptly north along 50w. i'm not buying the recurvature yet.. something doesn't look right. think the ridge weakness is too dramatic.. see how the globals are taking it north and stalling it near 35/50? my bet is that it stairsteps wnw/nw.. maybe recurves further east.. or maybe stays weak and gets under another span of ridge.
other basin features:
weak impulses in/near the caribbean have that blotchy/overzealous convective look that goes hand-in-hand with enhancement. they're too close to soon-to-be to do anything, probably.
the wave trailing 97L puffed out in spite of a more moist environment. globals track it, keep it low, generally overdo it. got to see how much signature maintains itself.. it will probably active further west, just may not be the sort of thing to develop much.
anything hanging south or east of future will have to be watched if it persists... the trades are very sluggish in the western atlantic and is making everything more convectively active than it otherwise would be. should be shortwave/coastal low that should peel out off the mid atlantic. once it gets a few degrees east of 12/katrina, the storm should move more or less west as the heights rise in its wake.
HF 0134z24august
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 09:38 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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"...early prog is mon/early tue along the central gulf coast btw PCB and grand isle with an early center near biloxi-mobile... as a major hurricane..."
Hank, I missed the 'good' news.
I noticed a 'staircase' of dry air ahead of 97L. West through Northeast. Loop indicating it drying out even further during the day to the NW of 97L.
CMC model had TD12 making landfall, on the Northern Gulf Coast, at 983mb on the 00Z run last night. I quit looking...after I saw that.
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