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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
A few notes [Re: Fletch]
      #48816 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:24 PM

* The error cone isn't any larger than normal -- just appears that way because of the slow motion and the scale of the image. I believe they use long-term average errors to compute the error cone, averages that don't change during the season.
* Erin is not listed in the comparables because the wunderground comparables only include depressions, not tropical storms. Erin went directly to a tropical storm when it was classified in the record books.
* The last storm to do the double landfall in Florida was Frances last year -- it re-emerged over Apalachee Bay for a short period of time before making landfall again near St. Marks south of Tallahassee. Erin was the previous storm before that, however, and that overall track may not be out of the realm of possibility. Model guidance is still split, so we'll have to see. Still, I'd trend more towards the globals and away from the BAM/A98E/LBAR limited models.

Edited to add...
* Remember: please do not post the entire text of NHC advisories! Please use hyperlinks or just quote the single part of the statement that you wish to discuss or highlight. It is not necessary to post the entire text of the reports -- they are available elsewhere on the site, from the NHC, and from many other sources -- and that's why a few posts have been sent to the Graveyard from time to time. Thanks!

I updated my blog post with some information earlier today, with perhaps another update later. I'm in line with the NHC track & intensity thinking, though I'd have the turn back towards the west as not being quite so dramatic. This would bring the storm across the state slightly further north and shift the projected area along the Gulf coast to the east. Still, anyone east of New Orleans needs to really watch this one...I don't think it'll be a Texas storm, though. Nevertheless, keep an eye to the SE...just in case, as always.

97L is getting there, though isn't looking quite as promising as earlier today. It's far out, so the NHC will likely be conservative with it.
i just logged on and started answering those posts with edits.. and then i see that you've already done them all... waste of effort. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 09:10 PM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Katrina [Re: Colleen A.]
      #48817 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:24 PM

The projections are that Katrina won't become a hurricane till it gets in the Gulf.

It will be interesting to see how well she follows the early path the NHC is forecasting.

We'll see...

the last thing the Gulf of Mexico needs in the middle of August is a tropical cyclone.

The waters are very warm right now...


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: 5pm disco [Re: Ed in Va]
      #48818 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:26 PM

Good discussion by Stewart...and for those interested, he does address the TD 10/ TD 12 dilemma.
It's raining cats and dogs here, so I'm gonna hang it up for a while.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48819 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:26 PM

Interesting info coming out of the 5pm Discussion there on naming conventions as HF suggested earlier. Also Stewart explaining the Ivan comparision, which someone mentioned earlier. It's almost as if the NHC has been browsing the board, and they probably do, I remember Ed Dunham saying that NWS looks on here from time to time.

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48820 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:43 PM

Quote:

Eagerly awaiting the 5 p.m. track and discussion. The first track will probably be going over someone's house here in Florida. If it's yours, you are probably in luck that it won't really do that. Hopefully it just stays as a much needed rain maker.




LOL well right now the NHC five-day forecast does indeed take it right over my house. So I guess I'm in the clear.

To be serious though, all morning long I had thoughts of Tropical Storm Allison. I was living in Houston at the time, and I remember how that morning the NHC's website said there was a "possible disturbance" in the Gulf, recon to investigate if necessary. Six hours later we had TS Allison and I was driving home through the start of our 36 inches of rain.

The slow speed of TD 12 worries me. Despite having a dry August, most of Florida has had well over average rainfall amounts for the season. The last thing we need is a storm that will stall or drag its heels crossing the state.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: TD 13 [Re: Clark]
      #48821 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:44 PM

Looks like the system out by the CV is already....

MM


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Bahamas Radar [Re: Jamiewx]
      #48822 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:45 PM Attachment (195 downloads)

The radar out of Nassau not showing too much just yet, a few showers and storms. Will have to wait for TD12 to move west farther.
I have attached the image of the radar, because the site is responding very slowly, like last time i used it.

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
TD 12 [Re: Jamiewx]
      #48824 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:50 PM

Like the discussion on TD12 - certainly very interesting reading and outlining the conventions and justification as to why we have TD12 not TD10. Satellite presentation is good, and with a well defined wind field, it only needs to generate more convection in the western semi-circle to really get going. Upper level and sea surface conditions favour this, and the Bahamas are unlikely to cause much hinderence in this regard. Gut instinct is that if it consolidates tonight, we will have a Category 1 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Florida east coast somewhere between Ft Lauderdale and WPB. With the terrain over southern Florida not being too extreme, it will probably weaken only a little as it traverses the peninsula - but this will be down to forward speed at the time.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: MissBecky]
      #48825 - Tue Aug 23 2005 05:58 PM

When I posted earlier(before the 5 p.m.) and said if the first track goes over your house the odds are that it actually won't, little did I realize that it would be my own house that I would actually be talking about. I guess that was a "wishcast", so it actually(hopefully) won't do that in the long run. Time to polish up the anemometer.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48826 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:04 PM

WXMAN...I used to think that way and was relieved when I saw the Dennis 5 day forecast............6 days later I got to stand in the eye! I have much more faith in NHC forecasts than ever before.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48827 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:06 PM

It's good to see Boynton Beacher's on here. Regarding storm strengths and travel--would they fly out of PBI say on Thursday, 12noon, with all of this going on?.. I'm supposed to be heading to Hershey, PA.. perhaps I'll be working in the Hurricane Shelter!?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: RyanRedCross1]
      #48828 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:12 PM

Looking at the visible sat..it looks like the center of circulation has reformed just south of the NHC position..it looks like the multiple circulations mentioned are dissipating and the new LLC is at about 22.7...I may be wrong because it is a short loop..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Tue Aug 23 2005 06:13 PM)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: pcola]
      #48829 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 PM

Wow, take a look at the 18Z GFS.
42 hours
120 Hours

Not a lot of movement. (understatement of the year there) Some high rain amounts could be coming.

On another note, it sure is nice to see a tropical system that is forecasted to cross the peninsula with a track that does NOT take it through Polk County. After C, F, and J, last year, enough is enough!


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Polkpundit
Unregistered




Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48830 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:23 PM

NOWHERE in Fl is 'out of the woods'---look at the error cone!

I know you were just trying to be funny, BR, but, such comments are a bit premature.

ps--Polk County is flooded out now....we are looking to get a federal declaration. MORE rain, we do not need...


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goawaycane
Unregistered




Re: TD 12 [Re: Rich B]
      #48831 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:28 PM

well anyone have a idea as to when they think this will be a rain event for the west coast of florida? friday or sat?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: TD 12 [Re: goawaycane]
      #48832 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:31 PM

Both..if the system follows the forecast track the west coast will be on the east side of the storm Saturday, with winds coming off the gulf, therefore lots of rain...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: Polkpundit]
      #48833 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:31 PM

Oh, I know Polk Pundit. I'm well aware of the flooding problems, I live in Polk Co.

I hope I didn't give the impression that Polk is out of the woods, it certainly is as at risk as anyplace. I really wasn't making an assessment of risk in that post, just making a general comment, as last year we were kind of the "poster county" for Florida hurricanes. Of course, with a system whose most significant affects may be rain, it really doesn't matter where the eye crosses.


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goawaycane
Unregistered




Re: TD 12 [Re: pcola]
      #48834 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:34 PM

So you think come Sunday the tampa area would be clear if the time frame pans out?

Likely yes, but it is too early to tell -- we have no idea how large the storm will be and thus how far reaching it's impacts will be. The NHC suggests that it will be, so when in doubt, follow their forecasts.

Also, please wait for someone to have the opportunity to answer your question rather than posting in twice in a short span -- it only clutters the board. Thank you! --Clark


Edited by Clark (Tue Aug 23 2005 07:04 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Awaiting 5pm [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #48835 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:34 PM

Well, time to throw that theory out the window...at least for now. LOL I thought the same thing...Btw, that discussion from Stewart was fantastic for a depression! I really think he is more enthusiastic than other mets there at NHC.

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CocoCrk
Unregistered




Re: TD 12 [Re: pcola]
      #48837 - Tue Aug 23 2005 06:50 PM

From the Miami Weather Office...

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THAT
REASON...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFL) HAS BEEN ISSUED MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5-10 INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
SATURDAY.

Good thing it's been dry in So. Florida lately...


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