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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: katrina problems [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48875 - Tue Aug 23 2005 09:55 PM

HanK FranK gives us the skinny that others charge $ THOUSANDS for! I'm honored to be allowed on this board. Our other Mets and Mods do yeoman service as well.
I wish I had orange groves. The info posted here would greatly help my trading.
I'll pay a bit for my bandwidth in less than 2 weeks.
uh.. dude.. i'm more likely to be wrong than not. probably close is all. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 10:05 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: katrina problems [Re: danielw]
      #48876 - Tue Aug 23 2005 09:57 PM

my initial thoughts on this thing wants to lean towards SE La.... obviously ridging will be the key factor where this thing utlimately ends up... however anywhere on the northern gulf coast could end up with the problem... who knows what the intensity will be.... IR loops shows that it continues to slowly build convection near and around the center, slow organization continues but I don't see this thing bombing out prior to impacting florida, ULL and some shear might inhibit that scenario... once in the GOM, if that's where it ends up, all bets are off.... major certainly not impossible but I sure hope not... and especially if this thing decides to head towards the panhandle....

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Trinidad31
Unregistered




Re: 12 [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48877 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:00 PM

The Bahamas are made up of many little islands and in between there are many areas (the Bahama Bank) where the water is only 10-15ft. deep and then it drops into deep pockets. Does the storm have a better chance of strenghthening when its over the deeper pockets of ocean in between the islands of the bahamas? Like the Tongue of the Ocean (South and West of New Providence / Nassau)? I believe the warmer waters are in the shallower areas and the cooler waters in the pockets, correct? I would think the actual path of center of circulation would directly affect the strengthening within the next 48 hours if in fact it travels over the shallower areas. What do you guys think?

The center of circulation looks to be farther south than the satellite pictures show which I believe will lead to a landfall a bit farther south in Florida than the NWC model. Just my opinion.


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: katrina problems [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48879 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:07 PM

So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: katrina problems [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #48881 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:15 PM

Yes, SSTs seem quite conducive to development. The Bahama's are running mostly 85-87C with a few cooler pockets. SSD is showing that after it crosses into the Gulf the temps retain the mid to upper 80's.

GFS seems not to know how to handle the storm still. I'm waiting for the 11pm NHC update as well as the some new model runs. Any clue why FSU has the pressure GDFL run, but none of the vorticity runs? (Working that is...they are listed, but they are all missing images)

--RC


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: katrina problems [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #48882 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 PM

Hey Justin, look at it this way a cat 1 storm isn't so bad compared to what all of us in South Florida were looking at 13 years ago tonight. Hurricane Andrew was ready to make American history at 4:30 a.m on the morning of August 24th. I remember it like it was only yesterday.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: katrina problems [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #48883 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:31 PM

Quote:

So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.




NHC isn't saying Anything about a Hurricane Landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W (Thursday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND (Friday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: katrina problems [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48885 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:33 PM

I would really like some input as to how strong this thing will be when it hits.Being 1.5 miles from the beach here,I need to make a plan now.I assume I will be under a warning tommorow morning.As of now I am in the center of the cone,And this thing is close.Thanks in advance.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: katrina problems [Re: danielw]
      #48886 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:35 PM

Quote:

Quote:

So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.




NHC isn't saying Anything about a Hurricane Landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W (Thursday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND (Friday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.


.AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: katrina problems [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48887 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:38 PM

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

60kts Gusting to 75kts is ...69mph gusting to 86mph over water.

50kts gusting to 60kts is ...57mph gusting to 69mph. Inland

Repeating the above post.
NHC is not forecasting a Hurricane, prior to a possible FL East Coast landfall at this time

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 10:41 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: katrina problems [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48888 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:41 PM


97L BYU high-res QuikSCAT plot -- http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_byu_at_image21/byu_hires20052352052_97.png

I don't think they do anything for wind-flagged vectors, and I believe that covers this morning's pass instead of this evening's, which has a large gap in the east Atlantic. I swear, that satellite always misses the active events... Anyway, based off of that, plus the appearance and versus how storms of that appearance generally are rated, it's more than likely a TD and possibly a TS. But, since it's so far out and with Irene apparently being the quota for the year, the NHC is going to be slow to do anything with it as long as it maintains that look, for better or worse. Just wish we could've had our consistency earlier, but I'm not going to rehash that argument (as with TD 10).

More later...
well, it isn't conclusive. looks like all the gale vectors would be rain-flagged. still if you adjust the t-numbers for shear, paired with the 25-30kt unflagged stuff, it's a convincing case for a depression. i guess 'tropical low' will have to do for now. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 10:59 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: katrina problems [Re: danielw]
      #48890 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:48 PM

Your right,the offical forcast is not,But they are saying there could be a hurricane at landfall.The water is soooo warm here,that nothing would surprise me.The fact that it is so close worries me a little,will people be prepared?I have no choice but to prepare for a hurricane.It does not take much to lose power here.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Satellite [Re: Clark]
      #48891 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 PM

Clark's post reminded me that there should be a satellite blackout for a while tonight. Starting around 04Z. SHouldn't be longer than 3-4 hours.
I'll see if I can find that link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2341804.01.txt

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 10:51 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Satellite [Re: danielw]
      #48892 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:51 PM

They went with Tropical Storm watches, Vero southward.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: katrina problems [Re: danielw]
      #48893 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:51 PM

danielw and ftlaudbob...You are posting 21Z NHC information. This is the 5PM forecast. Please watch the time on top of the advisories...We are only 10 minutes from the 11PM. Which would be 03Z...Which may be out as I'm typing. Hope you understand, but people could be visiting the site could be confused if we don't monitor the time conversion on the advisories.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: katrina problems [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48894 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 PM

Bob...you have been here long enough to know what you should do about a possible landfall in your area...whether it be a TS or a Hurricane.
Pay attention to the local EMS...you should already have your plan in place.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: katrina problems [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #48895 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 PM

As of 11pm I am under a TS watch.Not much sleep here for a while.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Local WPB Meteorologists take [Re: Clark]
      #48896 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 PM

My Area Forecast Discussion, Immediate Bulletin
Palm Beach County and Central/South Florida
900pm EDT Tuesday August 23 2005

Please use as a supplemental Informational discussion to Official discussions and forecasts for pre-planning

As of the 18Z run of the GFS model...

As of the latest I want to stress one issue about TD#12. According to all the upper and low level wind charts and overall pattern for TD#12. AT this time I still am not convinced that TD#12 when it does become a tropical storm will go into the Eastern Gulf. In fact what I still see here is a situation that it may hang around over the East Central Florida coast and our area into the weekend. The steering pattern at this time seems to implicate that this potential tropical system will linger and stay more on the east side of florida and eventually be picked up by the weak westerlies and go north as we get into the weekend.. The motion looks to be slow and also a large amount of rain is expected in fact the GFS has been consistent in showing the synoptic weather pattern that it will be locked in over our county and Lake Okeechobee. Once the low center gets over us right by PBIA location Friday what this spellsis long term winds and rains and significant flooding potential.

Also there is a mid to upper ridge and high that will be over the Central Gulf of Mexico which will act to block the tropical system from going west and also a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic States by Friday will also make this system a slow boat to China motion!

Repeat this is not in any terms lifting away quickly from our area......The low center gets to the SOutheast coast of Florida late night Thursday on GFS....this looks respectable to the synsptic pattern setup..

So in summary, a signifant rain and wind event for our area for over night Thursday, Friday and the weekend as it looks.. I favor also the northern track then the the southern track and also moving slowly northward eventually.

Progressive weather pattern in the U.S also will impact the weather pattern downstream and this also implies less chance that this system would move across the state into Eastern Gulf. We will not know this for sure until next day or so..but the weather systems I described here will support a lock down on this system for a prelonged period of time more than what I feel what the official forecast is showing. Hopefully as I agree that this will stay as a tropical storm. A strong one with rain amounts 4-8 inches easily and winds anywahere from 30-60mph range.

This system has the potential just as T.S. Jerry in 1995 and as well as similarities to Erin in 95 too but staying over the peninsula!. Potential flooding and prolonged winds at least not the intensity of Jeanne or Francis thank God..As far as Lake Okeechobee water levels as they released the water in the past it was a very very good decision in my view for this developing flood potential situation and we are not talking about small flooding we are talking about possible BIG TIME FLOODING!.

Not to panic anyone that is not what I am implying but now is the time to prepare for the worse case scenario..all essential services and agencies should be on standbye for the worse case scenario...only hope is that it stays as a weaker tropical storm not to give us too much rain...the waters offshore are super warm and convective bands will bring a deluge of rains...as we get into Thursday Friday and even into the weekend sometime at least Saturday...maybe Sunday too since if it does move slowly north it will still influence us with it's moisture and circulation being fed with the very warm waters off our coast.

Will keep tabs on this as time goes on but for now..I dont think there is more to say and much to change...just getting ready for a very wet and windy period...We can easily go beyond the 9 inches for the month of August as it looks now once this finally goes to our north after the weekend..as I see it..get ready and you should have been ready for this significant event for our area..tropical storms can give us major problemswith flooding as you have heard in the past from other places in the deep south from the past ears..Miami is doing a fine job in alerting the public on this system and made a good decision as to the extent and effects of this potential significant tropical storm that will effect our area...

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Genesis
Unregistered




Re: katrina problems [Re: danielw]
      #48899 - Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 PM

Here's what I see.... as an amateur...

I don't buy the recurvature after it touches SE Florida - what would steer it that way? Where's the feature that would do that? I just don't see it in the overall weather pattern.

I think its going to come into the gulf, and 72 hours from now the AVN says the sheer environment is going to be good for intensification. That's bad timing - just about when this thing will be heading in that direction. SSTs off Destin two days ago were EIGHTY NINE Fahrenheit (no, that's not a mis-type - I was out 20nm in my boat, and that's what I MEASURED) That's bathtub warm, and LOTS of fuel for this thing if she gets out here.

I agree that none of the models have a handle on the initialization right now that "works" - and the only dynamic model I see a run for is the GFS. The numercials have a horrid record the last couple of years - I'm not buying their solutions. I suspect the GFS is too far east, for the same reason I believe it won't recurve before it crosses the peninsula - what draws it that way? I don't buy the evolution of the pattern that the GFS puts in place to cause it, and thus, I don't buy the "big bend" either.

As someone who's taken two whacks this year already (Dennis being the worse of the pair) and having been nailed by Ivan, I certainly don't want another one. Nonetheless, unless I see major motion away from this general direction in the next 48 hours I'm going to make sure I have my Tapcons at the ready for the house and my boat prepared to move - again.

My gut and look at the overall pattern suggests further west than us, but this far out little errors in terms of track make for huge errors in terms of where she ends up.

What I think is reasonably certain at this point is that SOMEONE is going to get shelled by this puppy; SE Florida looks to get something, but probably nothing major. The gulf coast, on the other hand, is an entirely different matter.

It would be nice if this thing came inland and rained itself out as it headed north, but that looks like a long shot from where I sit here.


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orlando fl
Unregistered




Re: katrina problems [Re: Genesis]
      #48902 - Tue Aug 23 2005 11:00 PM

fsu and gfl models are showing TD 12 moving nw and pretty much touching cape canaveral and moving north towards JAX and then notheast put in to the atlantic ..but this shows to be a slow pattern

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