Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
just an aside, but was the name i picked off the list back when we had the poll on which named looked scariest. i picked one that looked like it would come about in later august.
noticed that my forecast intensity is the highest i've heard anywhere. now i look like chicken little. want to applaud everybody for not cat 5'ing the situation.
HF 1322z24august
Gee thanks, you think my name is scary huh????? 
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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TomKuhn
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I have been reading this boeard for quite some time, thanks for the great site! I have been looking at the FSU Met site quite a bit this year, and am wondering what some of the different model types (950mb Vorticity, Theta E, shear, Zonal Shear, etc) mean. When gathering data for predictions, what model types are more often used?
Tom
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Has anyone looked at the model? What the heck is that?
cmc model
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Is that what you are referring to ?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Isn't that ? Look at the one too.
gfs model
click the forward button on the right
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Wed Aug 24 2005 09:49 AM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
HF
It's the name I picked too. 
Go back a few posts and read Ron Basso's post. I saw a model a few days ago that hinted at the same thing. Cross SE Fl, up the coast and back in again north of Tampa. Wish I could remember which model it was.
Is there a chance this could happen??? I am not good at reading the set up for what will/won't "direct" this storm.
Help please. 
Thanks!
Dotty, it was the (Canadian) model. This particular model is noted for rapidly overdeveloping tropical cyclones and so the results of strength need to be viewed with caution. My point earlier is that the new model has now swung to this track. Given the disparity in the models once it gets into the GOM, its a wait and see mode. The UKMET and models take the system more W-NW into the north-central GOM with time.
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RJB
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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those models are strengthening the storm a little much for how close to/over land they keep it. whats funny is that the models keeping it more over water don't strengthen it as much. the solution is a good compromise, because it makes a lot more sense.
force, please do not reference Andrew. just as soon as i comment on how nobody was cat 5-ing... you have to go do that. if you're going to imply that an extreme hurricane is in the works, support your idea with some real facts.
HF 1357z24august
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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What do you mean by a shift to the right? Are you talking about the storm's right?
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
looks like has good banding and outflow going.
Wouldn't surprise me to see a Hurricane by 11pm tonight.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Is there any information on how the weakness in the ridge is doing? Is it trending weaker or beginning to fill in?
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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From that infrared shot I would think is moving more to the N-NW from what I am seeing.
I am eager to read the 11AM update.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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The storm is looking more conservative  !
Actually, the models have moved to the east (right):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
In addition, climatology does not favor a GOM solution:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_climo.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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The inhibiting factor for was well posted on this site..especially by Hank Frank. It is the dry air on the west side....
IF gets in the gulf as a hurricane....about the only thing I can think about is the timing....AUGUST....
the weather forecast for Mobile today is 92-95 degrees, and a heat index of 107.
factor that in our what if scenario...
Camille was in August
Andrew was in August
this is August, and it's awfully hot outside....
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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The NOAA Gulfstream is going out to do Atmospheric soundings and that data will be added to the model runs. This should give a good indication on the Strength of the Ridge. It should start effecting tonights model runs.
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Jara
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Here is a wonderful site that shows many levels and also 5 day. First Link is the site and the second is the 5 day.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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HF,
I wasn't trying to alarm anyone, but wanted to show that is in the same body of water as Andrew was in, perhaps a little farther south of Andrew, but I was trying to reference the SST's and the shearing enviro is the ingrediants for perhaps a more rapid intenseification of as Andrew did in these same waters. The also puts that comment in their discussion as well for perhaps rapid intensification. That is all I was trying to relay.
andrew was coming rapidly west and already an extreme hurricane as it went over the northern bahamas. the waters near the islands actually aren't very deep in spite of their warmth, and won't support a slow-mover as well as a speeding Andrew. it will get stronger, but there isn't time for it to get very strong, anyway. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 24 2005 10:19 AM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Is the ridge what is showing in the black to the NW of the storm and what will theoretically push it west..doesn't it look like it's breaking down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I think that is dry air. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I may be wrong but it looks like the Miami long range radar is starting to pick up the center. Looks to be tracking between WNW and NW.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Take a look at this site. Hit the loop button at the top. It takes this on days 5 and 6 back across the state.
unisys weather
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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