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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Katrina Unofficial Forecasts
      #48990 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:28 AM

This is a topic for unofficial Katrina forecasts, anything here is just people's best guesses, etc. Take it with a grain of salt.

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Beach
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #48996 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:38 AM

I'll weigh in by saying.
South Of Ft Pierce, North of Boca.
What is that 80 miles or so?


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ljmax
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Ocala
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #49000 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:41 AM

Out of all the projected paths for Katrina I'll choose the yellow brick road which shows Katrina going west across South Florida and entering the Gulf. Then turning north for 150 miles or so then heading NE making landfall around Crystal River. This storm could end up similar to Frances with lots of rain and a slow mover. That's my best guess. Everyone in Florida needs to watch this one. Good luck to all.

Edited by ljmax (Wed Aug 24 2005 05:04 PM)


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Just look at it... [Re: MikeC]
      #49037 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:14 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Is that doesn't look like a Wannabe Hurricane, than I don't know what does.


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #49091 - Wed Aug 24 2005 02:18 PM

O.K. gotta get my feet wet sometime. I'll take a stab at it.

Both landfalls - Florida.
Cross Florida (probably north of Ft. Lauderdale). Slightly into the gulf and up the west coast (ugh!!!). Second landfall in Florida north of Hernando County (I hope).

And boy do I hope I'm wrong on this!

Not wishing anything on anyone - especially with all the warm water temps.

Dotty


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Hootowl]
      #49094 - Wed Aug 24 2005 02:24 PM

Hmmm, I'll take a guess I'll say coming in at west palm at 5PM Friday as a 100MPH Hurricane, and will exit at sarasota as a strong 60mph tropical storm heading WNW but shifting to a NW movement. I have reasoning for my thoughts but I don't think it's strong enough to be on the main page.

1) Convection is wrapping around
2) No shear
3) trekking more north than expected, giving more time over water
4) will have an opportunity to move away from the bigger bahama islands

I still expect it to drive west, but not for a little while longer
I think the second land fall will be south of Tallahassee as a Cat 1. 48 hours after exiting the florida coast initially

-mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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reasonmclucus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Kansas
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: MikeC]
      #49104 - Wed Aug 24 2005 03:02 PM

Katrina will cross southern Florida and then strengthen rapidly when it hits the very warm waters of the Gulf. If it stays west of the Florida coast it will hit the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane. Winds are currently moving west across Florida which should keep it to the west.

the current surface temperature map shows water temperatures at or near the top of the scale

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

--------------------
Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.


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Big Kahuna
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Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: reasonmclucus]
      #49110 - Wed Aug 24 2005 03:33 PM

OK... As it is tracking now I think that It will make land fall well north of Ft. Lauderdale, its projected path. In years past I cant remember a early forcasted path that was correct. Depending on her speed and when she slows down will be a big factor on where she will hit. I guesstimate that Katrina will hit north of West Palm around Fort Pierce.


had to look closer at a map

Edited by Big Kahuna (Wed Aug 24 2005 03:42 PM)


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trunk
Unregistered




Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49162 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:43 PM

Quote:

OK... As it is tracking now I think that It will make land fall well north of Ft. Lauderdale, its projected path. In years past I cant remember a early forcasted path that was correct. Depending on her speed and when she slows down will be a big factor on where she will hit. I guesstimate that Katrina will hit north of West Palm around Fort Pierce. had to look closer at a map





I'm Hoping your right.. Getting married on Holland America cruise ship in Ft. lauderdale at noon on Saturday.. 40 guest trying to fly in Friday

Oh well, I'm driving down there tommorrow morning from Atlanta and staying right on the beach in ft lauderdale (Hyatt Regency Pier 66) So maybe we will get to experience our first hurricane in a front row seat


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turbofish
Unregistered




Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: trunk]
      #49190 - Wed Aug 24 2005 05:53 PM

Oh man, you really don't want to do that!

Call the cruise line and make sure they are still sailing Saturday! Call the Hotel too. You do not want to be on the Ft L beach on Friday!


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Ed G
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 69
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: turbofish]
      #49202 - Wed Aug 24 2005 06:26 PM

I think Katrina will kiss the shore at Melbourne, do a hop and a skip to Disney, suck that big 'ole rat out of the arms of snow white and land his fat arse on the beach at Sarasota where he will promptly be served a lemon freezy.

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weatherwatcher2
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Ed G]
      #49226 - Wed Aug 24 2005 07:46 PM

will enter at vero beach. will exit between venice and sarasota then will hit mobile bay!

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trunk
Unregistered




Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: turbofish]
      #49240 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:11 PM

Quote:

Oh man, you really don't want to do that!

Call the cruise line and make sure they are still sailing Saturday! Call the Hotel too. You do not want to be on the Ft L beach on Friday!




Ah... I got no choice.. its our wedding

If things look bad enough we will stop in Orlando or something Thursday afternoon and finish the drive Friday after Katrina clears.. (just don't stall girl!)


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HughWolfgang
Unregistered




Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: trunk]
      #49277 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:32 PM

My best guess: landfall tomorrow near Ft. Lauderdale (it appears to me that Katrina is actually moving just south fo West based upon the Miami radar loop), then enter the Gulf south of Tampa, and turn WNW for a day, and then NW. Final landfall between Mobile and Apalachicola (yeah, that's a big area). I hope I'm wrong cuz I live in that area!!!

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Aquanaut
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Cocoa & St. Augustine, Florida
Re: Katrina Unofficial Forecasts [Re: Ed G]
      #49587 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:39 PM

Well I hope not (landfall at Melbourne). We just had the first of Katrina's rain bands come through the North Cocoa area about 10:00AM. I JUST had my roof replaced after damage from last years storms, and we experienced pretty strong winds/rains last Fall. I lost my fence too and had to replace that also. Anyway, we are waiting on the storm/s effects and the track forecast looks like Katrina may affect the St. Augustine area where my Fiance~ lives. At least the heat will moderate for a few days. Hats off to the individuals who put this site together. I think it's well constructed. BTW, this is my first post.

-Walt

Edited by Aquanaut (Thu Aug 25 2005 01:56 PM)


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