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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Eglin AFB, FL
      #49019 - Wed Aug 24 2005 10:15 AM

I also think that the NHC has the best track on this. I think that there will be a bigger emphasis on the right hand turn instead of the westerly run through the GOM after exiting the peninsula. Most of the models are tightening the turn to the north later down the track. A few of the models have some slight weaker spots emerging in the ridge at about the 96 hr mark in the GOM near Tampa. I think that if Katrina is stable after her trip across the peninsula she will squeeze into that weak spot. Any less time in the GOM is a good thing for this storm, the forcasted shear is negligible in the GOM and the 90 degree water would be bad for all concerned.

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