MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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7:50PM
The 8PM intermediate advisory is out, and recon has confirmed moving more toward the west northwest. As the storm approaches Florida it will begin to slow down, it may be a long day Friday with high winds and lots of rain for South Florida, similar to .
It hasn't strengthened all that much, but the dry air is almost gone, and it's entering into an area with warmer water temperatures, and shear is relaxing, so it has the potential to strengthen overnight.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show tonight on hurricanecity. You can listen in beginning at 8PM EST here
4:30PM
A new tropical storm watch has been issued for the east-central Florida coast from north of Vero Beach northward to Titusville...including all of Merritt Island and Cape Canaveral. And also a tropical storm watch for most of the Keys, excluding Key West.
Hurricane Warnings will likely be put up late tonight for portions of the hurricane watch area.
The storm is getting better organized again, and probably will strengthen overnight. The 's track has it taking a hard left, and the elongation to the west and east would support such an idea. However, it hasn't made a strong westerly movement yet. Folks in the cone will want to continue to watch it. Folks in the watch areas and eventual Warning areas will need to prepare for a Category 1 system making landfall. Expect power outages.
Original Update
Tropical Storm has formed near the Bahamas.
Hurricane Watches are now up from Vero Beach southward to Florida City. It's now forecast that will be a minimal hurricane when it makes landfall in South Florida Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for portions of the east coast of Florida as well.
The forecast track remains similar, if not a more pronounced turn to the west as it nears south Florida.
More to Come soon...
Event Related Links
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Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Invest 97L
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METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
Edited by SkeetoBite (Wed Aug 24 2005 10:23 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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That's a funky soulution that the 06Z has, having take a sharp left turn before hitting the east coast of Florida, then getting a ways out into the Gulf. Also interesting to note that after not even strengthening the system to a tropcial storm through the 00Z run, it now strengthens it into a cat 2 hurricane before reaching the far SE coast of FL and then blows the system up into a major hurricane over the Gulf in the 06Z run.
Considering the unrealistic looking SW turn of the storm in the model, the solution has to be considered suspect at best, but it illustrates how little changes can make huge differences in the models, especially for tropical systems.
--edited to change cat 1 to cat 2 in first paragraph
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Aug 24 2005 10:59 AM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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@ 8am we had 24.4N 76.6W
@ 11am we have 24.7N 76.7W
.3 points N .1 point W , if this continues we will defineatly see a track change.
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Does anybody have an updated loop of ? I was looking at the RGB floater and its almost an hour old and Ive tried to refresh but nothing happens. Thought it was updated every half hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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On the 11am they have a hurricane over Ft Lauderdale. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?3day
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The fact that they are not still sure of an exact center leaves this system open. So far the track points are trending to the right side of of the forecast. As she improves in organization, I think the model runs will improve. I think initial landfall will be about 20-50 miles north of current forecast. Well within the cone of error, though. I would say that for now, all of Florida's coastal areas need to keep a wary eye out. I only hope conditions do not converge to allow her to bomb out past Cat 1.
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Jim
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Ok, if Pensacola gets hit for the 3rd time in less than a year all hell will break loose in this town. This is unbelieveable. The water is HOT right now. No reason it won't be a hurricane.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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For those in central and west Florida trying to get an estimate of wind speed with a hurricane as it passes east to west across the state, check the link below at . Instructions are self explanatory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I don't see it going to Ft Lauderdale. A bit more North.
Look at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Click on the Trop Frcst Points.
Look at the direction that the storm is pointed.
Probably West Palm.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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The only real danger of a bombing storm that I can see is if the storm tracks NW and doesn't take the hard turn until later. I think the best way to visualize this, the further north the storm lands the stronger it will be. As it is The storm seems to be moving fairly quickly. So, would hedge my bets against any bombing in the atlantic.
97L seems to be moving just south of west at about 17.2N 41W. It looks like a sheared TS, but no worries, either it will get together, or it won't. but I'm starting to think that it may trek west for a while. Which isn't what I expected from this storm.
Nothing else seems organized, Some nice showers around 12N 55W or so, and there is the wave in the Carib. But neither of those look promising. I think there is a wave coming off africa as well, but that's nothing to worry about for now
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Actually the August 26 12Z position is dead on top of FT Lauderdale as a Cat 1.
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Jim
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The only reason I worry about bombing is that this storm is suppose to slow a bit. It does not seem likely; but intensity forecasting is still not very good. I can't see perfect conditions to allow this right now, though. A Cat 2 system at initial landfall would not surpise me, though. I don't know if it would have time to get above that; but, I am not willing to discount the possibility with the way systems have gone this season.
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Jim
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Hey, pcola, check out the track at the top of this thread LOL.
Well it is certainly too far out to say too much right now, but next week could be interesting.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Lets hope it only makes it to Cat 1. The forcasted path takes it right over my house, luckly in SW, not SE FL. If this thing does rapidly intensify, which isn't likely right now, and follow the forcasted path, I could be in for a pretty good storm. I just pray that ULL keeps interfering with its development and all we get is a day of rain.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Bad news for the gulf if the projected path verifies - the AVN is forecasting highly favorable conditions for strengthening (low sheer) starting Saturday... and given the near-90F water temps, that is NOT a good thing.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Right now I am under a TS warning and a hurricane watch.Things should start to go down hill tommorow.The worst should be early Fri. to about noon.People here are just starting to hear about ,and the stores are starting to get very busy, as I will be.
Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 24 2005 11:40 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Really isn't too much to disagree with on the track, there's a good case for it. Still cone of error is pretty large. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see if it holds after the later model runs with the new NOAA data.
But, right now I don't see any huge reason to doubt the track.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hey Mike, Maybe I'm way off base here, but do you see the NNW motion Mr. Stewart is seeing? I don't, but maybe I don't have a good fix on the center. I see it moving WNW and at a pretty good clip. I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Hey Mike, Maybe I'm way off base here, but do you see the NNW motion Mr. Stewart is seeing? I don't, but maybe I don't have a good fix on the center. I see it moving WNW and at a pretty good clip. I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??
It's hard to tell with how the storm is pulling together now, looking on radar and on the visible satellites, it's really a judgement call. It's probably borderline NW/NNW.
Dry air is still giving it fits right now, and will keep it from going to strong too quickly.
If you see anything different let me know. I'm checking for persistant movment, and more recon points when the new plane arrives (Should be soon)
Registered only posting is on for talkbacks today. You can register a new user here if you'd like to chime in on .
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Quote:
I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??
I'm not sure if I'm correct, but I don't believe the convection you were talking about is the center. The last couple frames show the clouds dying off. It looks like, to me, that it was convection trying to wrap around the center, but is having problems with dry air. Just my opinion, anyone elses?
Edited by Myles (Wed Aug 24 2005 12:22 PM)
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