Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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if latest trends with models keeps going i would expect a slight shift in the forecast after 48hrs to the left or west....moving second landfall back towards apalach.....in the 5pm adv...... more west would also allow further strenghting.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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schmoo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
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Is running Storm Stories like they did when Cindy came through New Orleans?
She was just a tropical storm as well but we had no Cantore.
Kinda funny -- I guess.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Katrina seems to be moving due west now; if you look closely the center seems to be directly between the two storm forecast positions on the floater.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I see it, too. The link you gave showed the circulation just below "r" and "d". I updated my loop and it now shows it almost below and between the "e" and "r".
Isn't that the most scientific explanation you've ever heard?? 
Accuweather.com just showed the center...it almost looks like it's on top of the last "i" in Miami.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:19 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Chaos,
Check the time on what you're looking at. Sometimes sat lags radar from :30 to an hour or more.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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WXMAN RICHIE - I hope your weather station stays up (along with the power), nice to get data directly from someone only a few miles down the road verus the generic "Ft Lauderdale" weather which (I assume) is from acutally from Ft Laud/Hollywood Internation Airport and nearly 20 miles SE of me. However the pressure is already off the scale - so is there anyway you can tweak the scale? I guess the daily statistics will good enough. Once again thanks.
Looks like the forecast is right on track both in direction and intensity, aside from the slight wobbles all these storms have. A hit anywhere on the Broward Co coastline would be pretty much dead on in my book.
Everyone keeps saying its going to slow down and gain strenght but I just don't see it... it's almost on top of us now. So surely the interaction with the land is going stop it from any rapid intensification.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Scott,
The U of WY has a pretty good model page on the UKMET model that allows you to play a bit with variables. It also updates faster than the or PSU sites.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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RBL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
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Looks to the NBC6 Radar that is realtime and is closeup.
http://www.nbc6.net/wxmap/1195199/detail.html
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 251800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1718Z
B. 26 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1336 M
D. 50 KT
E. 340 DEG 20 NM
F. 073 DEG 64 KT
G. 343 DEG 16 NM
H. 990 MB
I. 19 C/ 1556 M
J. 22 C/ 1630 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0612A OB 13
MAX FL WIND 64 KTS NW QUAD 1713Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New models out.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
GFDL is still pushing it south, but not as much as before. It seems more in line with the percieved motion on Miami radar than the other tracks, and no longer a huge outlier at the same time, though it still has a sudden southward jog just before the coast.
Miami radar looks like the extrapolated track is now toward Miami.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:32 PM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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25/1745 UTC 26.2N 79.7W T4.0/4.0 -- Atlantic Ocean
More evidence supporting a Hurricane Intensity! 
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Did the web site go down?
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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With that huge pressure fall that we got this morning does that mean that the winds will come up in the 5pm adv ?
Live level 3 images of updated every 5mins
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=3356
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My bad, you are right. it is the definition of an eye and that is called so by . Just not a very well formed one.
That aside, not really doing much to improve structure. I think 90 MPH at tops at landfall. Probably closer to 80. Will be interesting to see what happens on the other side of Florida. I suspect this will be a very bad rain event for most of S Florida. Small center. I would not expect much in the way of wind and surge damage. Would only worry about leaving home if in a trailer, weak structure or a flood prone area. However, that is just me and not any official advice.
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Jim
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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NHC is down for me too.
I'm in quite the pickle myself... I'm at UCF in Orlando, and I need to be in Jupiter tonight. I'd leave now, but with one more class and stalling/drifting further south, I think I can get away with holding out one more hour.
Before you say it, don't worry, I know what I'm up against and am not looking forward to driving through the bands. But alas, work is work 
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[witty phrase here]
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Quote:
Everyone keeps saying its going to slow down and gain strenght but I just don't see it... it's almost on top of us now. So surely the interaction with the land is going stop it from any rapid intensification.
I agree completely. It doesnt look like it will stall out right now, but from a few different radar loops it appears to be moving SW. Sat still seems to show a due west movement, but burst of deep convection did appear south of where you would think the center is. So its up in air where the hell this thing is really going.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I'll believe the solution moreso than the UKMET solution, which I will disregard for the time being as 1) it has been one of -- if not the -- worst major dynamical model for TC forecasting over the past 3 years (after a stellar 2001) and 2) there's nothing to suggest that an reasonably deep TC will move SW in the Gulf like that. Even still, the storm is just 25 miles from shore -- or about 5hr -- and given no synoptic forcing to do so I cannot see this storm moving south into Miami, yet alone the Keys. The wobbles of the storm are largely that -- wobbles -- and the storm is overall on a 270 heading towards Ft. Lauderdale. Other than internal oscillations, the trough that was trying to impart a southward component of motion upon the storm has now passed it by, leaving weak steering currents in its wake. The storm should drift across Florida at about 5-6mph before slowing in the western part of the state or offshore as the trough in the northern US draws closer.
Landfall looks to be maybe 4-6hr earlier than the forecasts from two days ago, which isn't a bad call at all, and right about at the same location. Again, other than to bump up the intensity forecast at landfall (as noted yesterday), I see no reason to change my forecast from Tuesday evening. I'll update it again tomorrow as we move past the first landfall and towards a second landfall on the north-central to northeast Gulf coast.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the advisories are comming out every two hours; there is another advisory before 5pm, in about 15 minutes
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Good aft all.
Is the reason the eye wall has not been able to wrap around to the west due to influx of dry air?
Will be interesting to see 2pm (CDT) update.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It could well be. The overall environment is favorable, but there is a bit of dry air that is still infiltrating the system. This should gradually mix out and not be replaced, as the base of the trough to the N of the system (where the dry air largely has come from lately) has now passed the storm...but that'll be too late for any significant intensification over water.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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