Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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RSO floater now on storm....7 min shots..... NOAA3 recon should have vortex report out soon
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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70mph at 2pm cdt west near 6 990mb
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
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In regards to the various models, someone asked this questions in the last couple days: Why is the model not receiving much discussion attention?
I must have missed and cannot find any resulting discussion from this question.
It seems like was the model of choice the last couple of years and now there seems to be no discussion of it and I am just wondering why?
Thanks!
Bob
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 99
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Katrina could have revved up pretty good but that dry pocket has continuously eroded the northern and western eyewall. One thing that appears to be happening now is the northeast through southwest sectors are filling in with heavy precip and if not for the upcoming landfall the strengthening band of precip attempting to wrap around the center could contract and become the new eyewall. There definitely seems to be a slow but steady movement just barely south of due west and Fort Lauderdale should be the approximate point of landfall later this evening.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i dont see where everybody is getting south of west from--Katrina has moved due west right along 26.2 since 5am, and now it seems to actually be slowing down--it has been moving .1 degree per hour and in the last advisory has moved .1 degree in two hours
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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the ceneter looks real close to land if it dont slow it will hit before midnight for sure.The has been right on so far but will be interesting to see the 5pm track with the new model runs out.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm looking at IR on NASA's GHCC GOES anims. The track looks to be drifting southwest.
Click "submit" on my page to see the GOES loop
(I built a quicky PHP page to take a GET string and change it to a POST string needed for GHCC's GOES animator.)
--RC
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well the from 2 days ago is about 6-12 hours off,, just matter when landfall is. At 8pm tonight , they had it between Freeport and WPB but now they have it inland. Path,,well anyone can be off by 100 miles 2-3days out.
Anyways with the I mention that model almost everytime I forecast, so I dont know why you say its not being discussed rhendryx.
scottsvb
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Is there a chance this system could slowley pass south florida and enter the gulf and head back to the florida penensula like did. The computer model is saying that right know
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kissy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
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Hi all! I read more than I post but figured I'd ask this. I'm close to MS/AL border and I notice that a couple of the models have moved landfall (once it's over florida) over to us. has been pretty good this year right? So overall for this board is the consensus still a florida landfall next week? Just curious! Thanks!
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Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Well i have and i seen scott talk about it but yes there has not been alot of talk about it since it was a middle of the road model.
What i mean is it was right in the middle of the rest so nothing like the gdfl which since it was going way out on its own people have taslked about it alot as well as since it was the worse case model it was talked alot about also.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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what model do you show that? i have not seen one please post a link to it.
Man i wish we had that link sign 
Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 07:27 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Hi all! I read more than I post but figured I'd ask this. I'm close to MS/AL border and I notice that a couple of the models have moved landfall (once it's over florida) over to us. has been pretty good this year right? So overall for this board is the consensus still a florida landfall next week? Just curious! Thanks!
Well, all the models are somewhat accurate, and all the models have inaccuracies. A track 1 day out is usually pretty good, but as we can see with , even one day away we are having pretty big divergence. I wouldn't discount any model for this storm - none are real outliers.
In fact, of all the models and tracks out there, the one the is predicting is the one that least matches any model concensus.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
And (scroll down for the track): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/05082500/29.html
And is looking like a really strong system: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082506/1.html
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Looking at the Miami radar the system has resumed a westerly motion. It is as someone said earlier: stairstepping to the west southwest. I'd say landfall looks like it will be somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 07:34 PM)
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sprghill
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL
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why are most of the models moving more west now after it leaves florida
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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would expect a major shift in 2nd landfall now.....would go with pensacola to panama city cat 1-2....in 5pm adv
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Max Mayfield on CBS 4 just said Cat 1 Hurricane right now.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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My guess would be the faster landfall then the before idea of friday afternoon.
So IMO its the fasster movement of the system.
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teesda
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Looks like the dry pocket to the N and NW are starting to fill in. Thank god that the storm does not have a lot of ocean to play with and not a lot of time to intensify.
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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Scottsvb,
Yes, i have noticed you have mentioned .
1.You, Scott, seem to be one of the few mentioning it.
2.NOGAPS is not appearing in any of the "spaghetti runs" I have seen. I am looking at the same websites as years past, swf emergency management, boatus hurricane center, etc., and am not seeing in the "spaghetti runs". Maybe there is somewhere else to see it?
I have access to the model at this page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
So, I know it is out there....my question is....Why is it not being included in these consolidated "spaghetti runs"?
Anybody else?
Thanks.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Pressures are going down here in Ft. Lauderdale as well..steady rate...now 1001mb (at my house) Question: does it make a difference if my barometer is inside my house or outside for the most accurate reading?
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