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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: Old Sailor]
      #49382 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:42 AM

No they like to run off of the GFDL model,,,thats why they said they highly recognize it....but what they are concerned about is its back to back run of a Cat 2-3 hurricane going into DADE County then Cat 3 somwhere on the 2nd landfall.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 25 2005 12:53 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: Old Sailor]
      #49383 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:43 AM

yup the GFS has been one way then back to the other so i dont think that will do much to there thinking.


Unless the gdfl and NOGAPS change alot i dont think the 5am will change track much if any.

Too many models are all over the map on this one so i think the 24-36 hr is good but after that i think its 50/50 at best if this storm goes into the gulf then to the panhandle or maybe up the state.Still too early to call.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: Old Sailor]
      #49384 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:45 AM

Right Old Sailor, but don't overlook the fact that this is the first run in a while where the GFS is actually crossing the state. It represents a growing consensus in the models. Also, while the NHC did express concern over the GFDL, as you noted, it's not like they ignored the GFS. They did an interest in it, and I don't doubt that this run will play a major role in their 5AM forecast. (as the NHC seems to be heavily relying on it this season) This "ain't your ordinary model flip flop," it's a complete shift for a major model.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49385 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:46 AM

but that is due to the fact the gdfl does not even have it hitting florida east coast at all.It will have to go south a bunch to make the gdfl come to pass.

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #49386 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:46 AM

Impressive SAT...eye clearly definable SE FL getting the first of it already

Edit: the circulation is visible on radar, but there's no well-defined eye there yet at all. If there is anything, it's a weak northern eyewall. Give it time and one might be there, but not as of 1a. --Clark

[ www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/home/map/USFL0149

intermediate advisory @ 2am should prove to be interesting at the least.

When is the GFDL model set to run again?
It runs every six hours. The next run will start at 2a and be available around 5a. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 25 2005 01:02 AM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: scottsvb]
      #49387 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:47 AM

Quote:

No they like to run off of the GFDL model,,,thats why they said they highly recognize it....but what they are concerned about is its back to back run of a Cat 2-3 hurricane going into DADE County then Cat somwhere on the 2nd landfall.




Which worries me as well. And right now the convection is really flaring up. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

And the fact that its thirteen years since Andrew just makes this all the freakier. And especially since the GFDL has run two straight runs of a strong cane hitting us in Dade. Either way, I am really interested if this continues with the next run, if so, then we may be in trouble considering this has been one of the best performing models in recent history. Either way, Dade is in line for some Tropical Storm winds in the least.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49388 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:49 AM

Quote:

but that is due to the fact the gdfl does not even have it hitting florida east coast at all.It will have to go south a bunch to make the gdfl come to pass.




Check out the latest run, its on the front page from the Colorado Model plot. It has it going right through central Dade county. and it won't take much of a wobble southward to produce that.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Recon [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #49389 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:53 AM

We're at least 15-18 hours away from power outages here in Broward County if She continues to decelerate as expected.

I posted information earlier this month on using a largish computer backup power supply with those 7 1/2 watt, standard base bulbs. The bulbs look like ping-pong balls and shed a surprising amount of light. They're so low in power consumption that they'll be good 'till FPL takes care of business. (Crosses fingers)

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_

Edited by the ongoing active Atlantic multi-decadal signal (Thu Aug 25 2005 03:38 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49390 - Thu Aug 25 2005 12:58 AM

It may be part of a growing consensus, but do remember that given the westward shift, it will lead to a westward shift in the consensus tracks. Despite the shift, I don't expect any real change to the track forecast with the 5a advisory unless something else changes in the model analyses.

Note that the 00Z GFS track is similar to the 12Z and 18Z FSU MM5 runs, both of which are run off of the corresponding GFS analyses. All three show a track up the west coast of the state with a landfall in the general vicinity of Cedar Key. It helps to narrow the potential landfall points at the very least, but as with all model guidance, we need to see what kind of trends show in the model.

Given a full-fledged tropical storm, the GFDL tends to over-develop tropical cyclones; given weak storms, it flip-flops between keeping them weak and really developing them. There often seems to be little middle ground with the model's intensity forecasts; despite that, it still does a good job on track and is better than most on intensity. I don't doubt that the storm is going to get stronger -- I just don't buy it getting that strong. The islands of the Bahamas will have some impact upon the circulation, while it still needs some time to consolidate a solid core. The microwave imager passes over the storm earlier suggested some asymmetric areas of convection around the larger circulation; it'll take these contracting into a single CDO before we start to see deep intensification. Best bet is still for something along the lines of a category 1 hurricane at landfall.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: Clark]
      #49391 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:16 AM

Clark i see the same as you with the gdfl.All season it either see's nothing or it has it way overboard.

I remember back on other storms it did the same thing going way over on how strong it will be.

And if it stays over land for 24 hours like the NHC says it has to lose a lot of punch and when it gets back out over the gulf it will take a little time to get its act back together again.

I want to see the NOGAPS and gdfl new runs to see what track change they have.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49392 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:48 AM

been watching the radar for awhile...waiting on recon and i think that Katrina.....which appears now on the 125nm range (center), may be going through some type of new center replacement.... the only thing i can think off...is she is getting stronger and she may be trying to fire up a new center...an inner eyewall....i would say in the last hour or two, i think the movement may just be a little south of west...a wobble of sorts....well see how many walls she has and if she is open on any side from recon soon.... i would guess open on east side....but not sure and can' tell....i would guess she has at least two inner walls around center.....also going with 50-55kts on next vortex....999-1001mb

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49393 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:48 AM

2AM nothing new no change in MPH and movement still west at 8

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49394 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:51 AM

THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ENROUTE TO Katrina HAS HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49395 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:51 AM

No gusts even listed just 50MPH and still 1000 MB.Hope this keeps up for you guys on the east coast as of this new update 3 more hrs and status quo

Just as a heads-up, they usually only list gusts in the forecasts (not the public advisories) unless it is an intense storm and there is a need to highlight overly strong gusts. A non-strengthening storm, though, is always good news. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:02 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49396 - Thu Aug 25 2005 01:58 AM

well now i know AF300 plane sucks.... if i remember correctly the plane had a problem with Dennis off of cuba......in july...

this was the last i got tonight

URNT11 KNHC 250501
97779 05004 50253 80900 70100 04015 6464/ /5763
RMK AF300 0512A Katrina OB 04


AF 307 and 304 i think have the new upgrades. ( tail numbers of plane )

this sucks because there could be a lapse in next computer model runs...no data from tonight (midnight til morning)...so later runs in morning would be skewed i would think

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Good Luck, Bob *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49397 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:02 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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laxpimpj
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49398 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:16 AM

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_5day.gif

Could someone please take a look at that map and do a mspaint shop job of marking where exactly coral gables (university of miami to be specific) is. If this thing comes through do you think they will cancel classes? It is our first week of school, and that would really be something to get a cane'!

Talk about school spirit.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: laxpimpj]
      #49399 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:25 AM

university of miami, fla is here, use bar on left to zoom in or out. good thing the VMA's (mtv) are in miami on sunday! did the same thing last year with mtv down in miami. tropical wx

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: laxpimpj]
      #49400 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:29 AM

Yeah classes should be canceled on Friday. Maybe today (thursday).
Anyways looking at the models,,,(outside the GFDL cause I cant seem to get it) they are all converging on a trip along the west coast of florida over the weekend. Landfalls are near Clearwater-Cedar Key. NOGAPS was the western outliner and still is but has shifted from 87W landfall to now 85W or just east of PanamaCity.
Just to note on this though, it has landfall tomorrow night and near Vero beach,,,I think its kinda too far N so it will make the turn N in the eastern gulf about 1-2dg too far w. Landfall looks on track near Cedar Key. Thing is how strong will it get Saturday night in the gulf into Sunday when it hugs near the coast and comes inland.......People from Sarasota-NewPortRichie really need to pay attention along the coastline as winds around 75-110mph could be expected in a Cat 3 hurricane on Sunday.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 25 2005 02:30 AM)


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Good Luck, Bob [Re: ralphfl]
      #49401 - Thu Aug 25 2005 02:44 AM

Storm exactly due East of my abode and at course 270 heading directly for my nose. I've been in many storms but never experienced the eye. This could be my lucky day, if the levee holds.

AT 2 AM EDT... CENTER OF Katrina
ESTIMATED MIAMI RADAR... LAT. 26.1 N...LON.
78.4 WEST... ABOUT 110 MILES...EAST OF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA.
<<<<< It doesn't get any better!

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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