FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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And I'm starting to get a little antsy here in Tallahasse based on the forecast track. 
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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You see what happens is, if there is an eye present, then it is a hurricane, which would mean the would have to provide updates right away. Also, with an eye, tell-tale sign of rapid deepening, and with the falling pressure to 990mb, what are they waiting for.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Aug 25 2005 03:56 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
What factor will keep from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?
It is expected to go around the high and as it pulls away from the state the storm is expected to go around it hence the forcast path.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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Is there a map anywhere that shows current highs and lows?
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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There is no eye yet. It may be developing one; but it is still filled in on the visible sattelite. There is a lag between pressure drop and winds increasing. As of right now, they have not found wind evidence to reclassify. Noon position update is still showing a west movement. Should have a cat 1 at landfall in mid-Broward county.
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Jim
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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the eye is not filled, it is simply covered with high clouds at the moment. There are numerous hurricanes and near-hurricanes where it takes about 12 hours after the eye forms to show up on satellite imagery, and sometimes it never does.
motion i see just north of due-west; it is already north of Ft. Lauderdale, and I expect landfall to be on the county line of Palm Beach and Broward, with winds 85-90. As for the recon report, 990mb and 70 mph winds in southern side (weaker) equates to about 60-65 mph at surface, which might indicate hurricane force in the northern quadrant. I expect to see winds bumped up to 70-75 on the 2pm advisory.
Edited by Rabbit (Thu Aug 25 2005 04:11 PM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Really nice presentation on the Miami radar loop out of...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
Looks like a 'cane to me. Clearly visible eye feature in the last couple of frames, looks to be moving just slightly north of west with the southern edge of the eye right about over the center of Ft. Lauderdale.
If that radar presentation continues over the next hour or so I suspect the will update.
It appears that the southwest turn predicted by the is not verifying....
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Cpt.Napalm
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Loc: Eglin AFB, FL
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There looks like an "eye" on the Miami radar but the "eye" is still not showing on the IR or the visible loops. From the sounds of the recon it is very close to hurricane status. Does an eye or even a eye on radar by itself in a storm make it a cane? It is all dependant on the windspeed correct?
Edited by Cpt.Napalm (Thu Aug 25 2005 04:14 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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look VERY closely just to the NW of the Biminis islands (NW of Andros) and you will see a slightly darker spot, that is where the eye is about ready to show up at in about 1-3 hours
Katrina
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bobbutts
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Loc: New Hampshire
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Yeah, after staring at the MIA radar I'm seeing due west movement with a position 37NM due west of Pompano Beach. Last 30 minutes have seen much improved wrap around what will become the eye though the SE quad is still returning by far the strongest echos.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Quote:
There looks like an "eye" on the Miami radar but the "eye" is still not showing on the IR or the visible loops. From the sounds of the recon it is very close to hurricane status. Does an eye or even a eye on radar by itself in a storm make it a cane? It is all dependant on the windspeed correct?
Yeah, its all about windspeed when it comes to official classification but that presentation pretty much comes with the pressure and windspeed to support the status....
She was close at the 11 AM without the presentation - with the convection wrapping around the center like this its pretty clearly deepening enough to support the upgrade.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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If you look out into the Atlantic, it looks like we have a convoy approaching...
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm12/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Models are so crazy after crosses FL I don't know what to think after that.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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If any Mets (or anyone else in the know) would mind pinging us with a few features out there. For example, the thunderstorm complex around 47W 11N, can it help reinvigorate 97L? (which is still spinning around 47W 17N, but increasingly seperated from associated convection).
There is also a thunderstorm complex in the southern Carib. 78W 11N or so. Looks like a mid level twist, nothing organized, but it seems to be drifting wnw and if it keeps together who knows (after all this season isn't lacking storms....)
Finally there is the thunderstorms around 68W 22N or so, (caused by a divergent flow in the upper atmosphere?) I don't think it'll develop, but it's certainly worth the look - see (assuming anyone can tear their eyes away from ).
I'm curious what other peoples thoughts are....
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Interesting that the 12Z has off the SW FLorida coast just north of the Keys, then takes her to just west of Tampa and stalls her there for 2 - 3 days, then slowly moves her toward the big bend, then has her near Charleston and intensifying again
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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I am working right now in Longwood/Lake Mary area and it is really coming down and is really windy with thunder and all. First one today!
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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A few pages back someone was asking about the right front quadrant...the following is from the Hurricane Local Statement for Southwest Florida.
...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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is confirmation from RECON. If you read the discussion, it also mentions that although the pressure has dropped down to 990mb, the winds have not yet reflected that pressure drop. This happens with a lot of storms...I remember as a distinct example.
They can't just "up" the winds if data does not support it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Yeah, I'm working in Apopka today and I am hearing thunder in the distance. Been kinda breezy until now. Rains coming, winds blowing......... Let the games begin!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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RE: Steve:
And then look at the from a couple hours ago. It is still insisting that the storm will make a sudden, strong southward jog in about 3-9 hours and the eye will miss Florida to the south. These models are definately not in agreement at all.
To all:
I'd be concerned if I were anywhere along the southern half of the FL east coast today, and as for tomorrow...better check back closer to midnight and the next model runs! Do not assume that becuase the extrapolated track is west, and the central cone of the guidence is west, that it won't deviate north or south. Remember from last year and its sudden jog just before landfall.
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 04:46 PM)
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