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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: landfall [Re: Margie]
      #49748 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:19 PM

URNT12 KNHC 252310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/22:58:40Z
B. 25 deg 52 min N
080 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 65 kt
E. 8 deg 015 nm
F. 116 deg 063 kt
G. 009 deg 013 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 13 C/ 3044 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 0912A Katrina OB 11
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 22:54:40 Z

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49749 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:22 PM

Colleen -- Ridge in Texas would result in a trough to the east, wanting to help turn it more towards the north. The ridge is not projected to build in back towards the east; instead, a trough is projected to move across the northern US and grab the storm.

To the person asking about what Naples may see: likely winds to 50mph, but largely a lot of rain. Isolated severe storms/tornadoes, but the biggest threat will likely be 8-12" of rain.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: landfall [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49750 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:23 PM

lost hurricane city again. so what does the effect do on Katrina moving sw. whats gonna happen now? and what is all that mess behind her south?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: landfall [Re: nl]
      #49751 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:28 PM

Katrina is going to wobble across the state in a general westward motion with the occasional southward drop. It's inland now and will remain that way; theoretically, if it wobbles southwest and then back northwest as it nears the west coast as some of the guidance suggests, it could stay over land for a longer period of time than expected...albeit that's a matter of just a couple of hours. The short-term track will have little impact on the second landfall location; it's still a timing issue.

Note that the inner-core wind field of the storm will not weaken all that much over the Everglades, very wet and very warm right now, but that the strongest winds with this storm for the next day or so will be located along the east coast & over open waters. This is a scenario similar to Frances last year. Frances took about a day to cross the state; given a slower motion here but less land to cross, a similar evolution seems likely with this one.

For more, see HF's update above.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: landfall [Re: nl]
      #49752 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:29 PM

Max Mayfield was just on CBS in Miami, he expects a second landfall in the Florida Panhandle, "the northwest Florida peninsula" area. Obviously he didn't buy (nor did I for that matter) the 18Z runs that went westward.

A little bit ago Jim Cantore said this was the strongest cat 1 he'd ever been in. He ought to know.

Also, sad to note that two deaths have been reported in the Miami area.

95 mph wind gust on Virginia Key .

edit: *Latest GFDL is now in line with NHC track.*
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Interesting. With both GFS and GFDL back towards the east of the other guidance, NHC track still looks dead on.


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: landfall [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49754 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:50 PM

so what is that mess se of Katrina? it looks bad.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49755 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:03 PM

The new GFDL model has shifted big time to the right know it takes it to the florida panhandle

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49756 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:10 PM

Well, don't really know why but we lost our power for about an hour and TECO said it was weather related. The winds are up but...in my opinion not enough to knock out power. We are back up though. Not even raining right now. Just some good strong gusts every now and then.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 262
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49757 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:11 PM

Amazing about the GFDL. I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Katie]
      #49759 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:23 PM

TECO is just getting you guys ready for the next hurricane. My buddy in Ft Lauderdale is sitting without his power. Considering how slow the system is moving, I am guessing some folks are in for a long outage until the trucks can come in.

--------------------
Jim


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49760 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:24 PM

Quote:

Amazing about the GFDL. I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.



Yup you can see it very well comparing the sat images on the beg and end of the loop. IMHO the center is not the open area...the center is just due W of Miami right now and is clouded over.

Edit: Eye just cleared a bit at 00:12Z, now a little easier to see. The radar is a little bit behind...wind in Miami already coming out of the SE, not the SW (as would be the case if the eye moved directly W after landfall).

Looks like dir since landfall has continued SW 225-230 deg. At this rate if she doesn't bear more W soon she'll move right over the everglades and exit NW of the keys at the entrance to Big Lostmans Bay.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:42 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Clark]
      #49761 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:29 PM

Thanks, Clark...so the trough that would grab the storm: it all depends on the timing of the trough and where Katrina is as to where landfall happens?
Thanks for answering my questions!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 262
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Margie]
      #49764 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:32 PM

Notice the blow up of cold high cloud tops on the last few frames of the IR. If this southward vector continues, she will be over the "open" waters of the warm everglades. she will weaken, but I wonder how much.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49765 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:38 PM

Colleen -- yep, pretty much. Essentially, the faster it goes now, the further west it ultimately gets. A motion about 5-6mph is pretty much accounted for; it should slow as it begins to turn north tomorrow or early Saturday, and then begin to move again towards the north at a fair rate of speed.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49766 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:38 PM

It's amazing how well Katrina has held together. If you look at the visible satellite loops from the last few hours, you can see the southward movement very well just before she made landfall.
I wonder what other surprises she has in store for us.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49767 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:40 PM

I donít buy the idea that a cyclone will be able to sustain itself considerably better over the everglades. Andrew, for example, was moving at a fast clip, and still lost a good deal of strength. I would, however, be interested in comparing storms that have taken similar tracks over the home of the seminols, so to speak.

--------------------
cheers


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49768 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

It's amazing how well Katrina has held together.




someone forgot to give the cane hunters the proper batch of dynagel

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49769 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

I'm amazed by the amount/look of the convection just south of the Keys on IR4. Incredible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Winds [Re: Clark]
      #49770 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

Airports with reports in the last 30 minutes. Emding at 0033Z, 8:33 PM EDT.
Airports reporting high winds. I won't breakdown the different airports due to space.
All measurements are in knots.
BCT 37G56
EVB 20G28
FLL 37G52
HST 23G30
HWO 39G56
MIA..............PRESSURE AT 29.17" or 987.9mb !!!
PBI 24G31
PMP 39G52
SUA 20G26
TMB 37G51 0.5 MI visibility and heavy rain.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/metars/

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:46 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49773 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:51 PM

Computer models are starting to turn back to the right with a bend on them intersting to see what happends later on.

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