Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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From the 9pm PA, this is kind of cool:
"...calm of the large eye experienced at the National Hurricane Center..."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:41 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the NW Atlantic WV Loop, the current patterns over the SE lead me to believe that a Louisiana/Texas landfall is very possible.
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Michael
PWS
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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You can really make out the historical track of the eye by looking at the highest rainfall line:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NTP_lp.shtml
Note that the eye is just to the north of that line based on radar, and has been all along.
Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:47 AM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Not to sound any alarms, but, what in the heck will the keys do if the storm continues to track further south than expected? what sort of emergency plans are in place for them.
And I know the short answer is hunker down and hope for the best, but hopefully there's going to be some due west motion and soon, (though the storm is fairly weak)
I really didn't see this southern motion coming at all, it's just, so suprising to see the airflow start pushing the storm south.
urk
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Ok, enlighten me. Where is the trough located that is supposed to pick this up and move it North? I dont see it on wv loop. Maybe I am not seeing something but it appears that there isnt anything to turn this north. I am probably wrong so if anyone can help me understand would be appreciated.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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If this system keep moving slow is there a possibility that the storm could turn sooner north.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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TS warnings have been posted for all of the keys. Those folks know what to do.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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they are getting some amazing radar pictures, even level II data from kamx right now.....yes it is more of wsw right now movement....also center is 5.1-8.3miles away from radar with winds on base velocity at 71kts at 215ft above ground!!!!! looks really cool!!! a lot of lightning is also being detected wsw of miami....
also if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html
live streaming video and radar on screen program
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:50 AM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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monroe
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.
Brian Norcross reported two gusts of 95 mph on VIrginia Key. Unfortunately I do not have a site to back me up on that, but that's what he said on the air about two and a half hours ago.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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There is a new model out:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082518/1.html
It does not look good for those people on the gulf or the keys. It is calling for a pressure drop to 970mb just after the eye moves offshore of FL, with little impact at all while overland. Then it strenthens it to a 950mb system and brings it north to the east of Pensicola (I don't know FL place names that well...so I go look at the bottom of the page if you want to see where exactly).
--RC
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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There is very little human presence along that coast. A couple of very small towns/communities is all there is. Best access to them is by water.
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Michael
PWS
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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katrina's center has gotten south of the tamiami trail in dade.. moving out into the glades. it's halfway across dade now. if the pace keeps up it will be moving out into florida bay about 15 mi SE of chokoloskee around 3-4am. if the recent track maintains, will be offshore before sunup. could be back to hurricane strength tomorrow afternoon. the storm has been moving faster than anticipated.. makes me wonder if the monday landfall timeframe is off, and that sunday would be the day. also am fairly convinced now that will strike again as a much stronger system. it will probably come off with a pressure 990-995mb.. that's something that will spin back to hurricane in a few hours. the waters in florida bay are shallower, but should get sufficiently deep by the afternoon to get things really rolling again.
miami got more than expected this evening. the storm slid sw down the coast, with its strongest convection on the southern side. it also continued to intensify as it made landfal.. the lowest reported pressure, 984 mb, was as the center moved past miami. just barely got my intensity forecast right... 982 was what i was thinking, but left a 2mb spread.
right now, during the sun/mon timeframe anywhere within 100 miles of either side of cape san blas looks like a bad place to be. the west coast of florida isn't out of the woods either, if were to stall over the weekend, say.
six more days in august... lee hasn't magically appeared so meeting the forecast gray made for the month is going to be tight. i honestly believe 97L should be/should have been a rated system, but i don't make the calls. it still has a chance, but i'm doubting.
HF 0153z26august
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html
live streaming video and radar on screen program
Monroe Cty. It has the western strip all the way to the southern tip.
keys too. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 26 2005 02:01 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I don't know about 97L. I haven't been impressed by it at all. Sure, it's maintained a respectable LLC, but the convection has been well to the NE for days. Today's sat pics seem to show that the LLC may be spinning down a bit, too. There's still a chance if the shear relaxes. I'm not holding my breath, though.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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report now 1million without power
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've been looking over the data from the planes...NOAA and AFRES.
Recon has flown the 25.0 Lat line to a point south of Biloxi,MS.
The wind direction never got past 113degrees. Or just south of due east.
25.0N/ 85.0W wind 041deg,NE at 15kts
25.0N/ 86.0W wind 077deg,ENE at 19kts
25.0N/ 87.0W wind 079deg, ENE at 17kts
25.0N/ 87.3W wind 092deg,ESE at 021kts
25.0N/ 88.4W wind 113deg,ESE at 018kts
I'll have to convert the flight level to altitude in feet.
9175 meters, 30094feet-pressure altitude.
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 02:09 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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GFDL 18Z track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
This is the latest one. Sure looks like a hit for the FL panhandle. It's tracking almost eactly how is going.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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the center is only 36 miles away from the GOM... if its traveling at 6 mph then the center (of the center) should enter the GOM at ~ 3 am CDT..... I think it will be closer to 2 am CDT.... continues on the SW track during the past hour from what I can tell... still looks quite impressive on radar as well... south and east eye wall kicking butt right now.... pretty impressive Cat 1 storm.... it a player for sure
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debwire
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Weather Channel forecasters just predicted that the second landfall (now expected to be the Florida panhandle) will be much stronger than tonight's landfall in the Miami area. has the opportunity to maintain much of her strength as she moves across Florida and enters Gulf waters further south than first anticipated. This means will have more time over Gulf waters, therefore more opportunity to become much stronger. Any other thoughts on this?
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--<--<@
Deb from DebWire
http://www.debwire.com
Florida transplant who has only endured Frances and Jeanne while narrowly escaping Charley.
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