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95L getting better organized today, Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Cuba, S. Fla and the Keys should watch. Epsilon moving away.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Delta) , Major: 58 (Laura) Florida - Any: 744 (Michael) Major: 744 (Michael)
36.9N 62.0W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nne at 12 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #49815 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM

From the 9pm NHC PA, this is kind of cool:

"...calm of the large eye experienced at the National Hurricane Center..."

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: danielw]
      #49816 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM

Looking at the NW Atlantic WV Loop, the current patterns over the SE lead me to believe that a Louisiana/Texas landfall is very possible.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/4


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: MichaelA]
      #49818 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:46 PM

You can really make out the historical track of the eye by looking at the highest rainfall line:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NTP_lp.shtml

Note that the eye is just to the north of that line based on radar, and has been all along.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:47 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 456
Loc: Georgia Tech
Keys question [Re: MichaelA]
      #49819 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:46 PM

Not to sound any alarms, but, what in the heck will the keys do if the storm continues to track further south than expected? what sort of emergency plans are in place for them.

And I know the short answer is hunker down and hope for the best, but hopefully there's going to be some due west motion and soon, (though the storm is fairly weak)

I really didn't see this southern motion coming at all, it's just, so suprising to see the airflow start pushing the storm south.

urk
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
14/13/04/01
18/17/7/04


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49820 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:47 PM

Ok, enlighten me. Where is the trough located that is supposed to pick this up and move it North? I dont see it on wv loop. Maybe I am not seeing something but it appears that there isnt anything to turn this north. I am probably wrong so if anyone can help me understand would be appreciated.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49821 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

If this system keep moving slow is there a possibility that the storm could turn sooner north.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Keys question [Re: Bloodstar]
      #49822 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

TS warnings have been posted for all of the keys. Those folks know what to do.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/4


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Frank P]
      #49823 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

they are getting some amazing radar pictures, even level II data from kamx right now.....yes it is more of wsw right now movement....also center is 5.1-8.3miles away from radar with winds on base velocity at 71kts at 215ft above ground!!!!! looks really cool!!! a lot of lightning is also being detected wsw of miami....
also if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples

http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

live streaming video and radar on screen VIPIR program

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:50 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49824 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:50 PM

monroe

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: danielw]
      #49825 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:51 PM

Quote:

Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.




Brian Norcross reported two gusts of 95 mph on VIrginia Key. Unfortunately I do not have a site to back me up on that, but that's what he said on the air about two and a half hours ago.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Discussion [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49826 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:52 PM

There is a new GFDL model out:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082518/1.html

It does not look good for those people on the gulf or the keys. It is calling for a pressure drop to 970mb just after the eye moves offshore of FL, with little impact at all while overland. Then it strenthens it to a 950mb system and brings it north to the east of Pensicola (I don't know FL place names that well...so I go look at the bottom of the page if you want to see where exactly).

--RC


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: LI Phil]
      #49827 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:53 PM

There is very little human presence along that coast. A couple of very small towns/communities is all there is. Best access to them is by water.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
sw [Re: Steve H1]
      #49828 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:53 PM

katrina's center has gotten south of the tamiami trail in dade.. moving out into the glades. it's halfway across dade now. if the pace keeps up it will be moving out into florida bay about 15 mi SE of chokoloskee around 3-4am. if the recent track maintains, Katrina will be offshore before sunup. could be back to hurricane strength tomorrow afternoon. the storm has been moving faster than anticipated.. makes me wonder if the monday landfall timeframe is off, and that sunday would be the day. also am fairly convinced now that Katrina will strike again as a much stronger system. it will probably come off with a pressure 990-995mb.. that's something that will spin back to hurricane in a few hours. the waters in florida bay are shallower, but should get sufficiently deep by the afternoon to get things really rolling again.
miami got more than expected this evening. the storm slid sw down the coast, with its strongest convection on the southern side. it also continued to intensify as it made landfal.. the lowest reported pressure, 984 mb, was as the center moved past miami. just barely got my intensity forecast right... 982 was what i was thinking, but left a 2mb spread.
right now, during the sun/mon timeframe anywhere within 100 miles of either side of cape san blas looks like a bad place to be. the west coast of florida isn't out of the woods either, if Katrina were to stall over the weekend, say.
six more days in august... lee hasn't magically appeared so meeting the forecast gray made for the month is going to be tight. i honestly believe 97L should be/should have been a rated system, but i don't make the calls. it still has a chance, but i'm doubting.
HF 0153z26august


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49829 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:58 PM

Quote:

if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples

http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

live streaming video and radar on screen VIPIR program




Monroe Cty. It has the western strip all the way to the southern tip.
keys too. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:01 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 890
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: sw [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49830 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:00 PM

I don't know about 97L. I haven't been impressed by it at all. Sure, it's maintained a respectable LLC, but the convection has been well to the NE for days. Today's sat pics seem to show that the LLC may be spinning down a bit, too. There's still a chance if the shear relaxes. I'm not holding my breath, though.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/4


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: sw [Re: MichaelA]
      #49831 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:02 PM

report now 1million without power

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Upper Winds [Re: LI Phil]
      #49832 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:02 PM

I've been looking over the data from the planes...NOAA and AFRES.
Recon has flown the 25.0 Lat line to a point south of Biloxi,MS.
The wind direction never got past 113degrees. Or just south of due east.
25.0N/ 85.0W wind 041deg,NE at 15kts
25.0N/ 86.0W wind 077deg,ENE at 19kts
25.0N/ 87.0W wind 079deg, ENE at 17kts
25.0N/ 87.3W wind 092deg,ESE at 021kts
25.0N/ 88.4W wind 113deg,ESE at 018kts

I'll have to convert the flight level to altitude in feet.
9175 meters, 30094feet-pressure altitude.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Upper Winds [Re: danielw]
      #49833 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:05 PM

GFDL 18Z track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

This is the latest one. Sure looks like a hit for the FL panhandle. It's tracking almost eactly how Katrina is going.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Upper Winds [Re: danielw]
      #49835 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:06 PM

the center is only 36 miles away from the GOM... if its traveling at 6 mph then the center (of the center) should enter the GOM at ~ 3 am CDT..... I think it will be closer to 2 am CDT.... continues on the SW track during the past hour from what I can tell... still looks quite impressive on radar as well... south and east eye wall kicking butt right now.... pretty impressive Cat 1 storm.... it a player for sure

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debwire
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Katrina Will Have Better Opportunity to Become Stronger? [Re: Clark]
      #49836 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:08 PM

Weather Channel forecasters just predicted that the second Katrina landfall (now expected to be the Florida panhandle) will be much stronger than tonight's landfall in the Miami area. Katrina has the opportunity to maintain much of her strength as she moves across Florida and enters Gulf waters further south than first anticipated. This means Katrina will have more time over Gulf waters, therefore more opportunity to become much stronger. Any other thoughts on this?

--------------------
--<--<@
Deb from DebWire
http://www.debwire.com

Florida transplant who has only endured Frances and Jeanne while narrowly escaping Charley.


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