LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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chessie's post got me to thinkin...
check out the se usa wv loop...
all ya'll can CLEARLY see the south westerly jog...and just look at the overall interaction with the high pressure spinning over arkansas...i gotta think will track wsw or sw or even ssw for at least another 4-5 hours and exit into the GOM damn close to the keys...
i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Joe B. said that he thinks it's moving more like 10mph right now, not 6mph. He basically said that it's moved 40 miles in 4 hours. The math's correct. He also said that he thinks it will exit the coast tomorrow morning around 6am, then try to figure out where it's going to go. His projected path is pretty close to that of the 's. Although, depending on how this storm behaves, that's like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
One more thing he mentioned: he said the storm is being fed by the feeder bands that are just north of the Keys, and that's where wants to go. I think Margie mentioned this already, but I'll just throw it in there for more confusion.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Phil this is what the GDFL has said and also said the same but a little higher.Bottom line 2-4 models had it going south but the Hurricane center discarded them.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Most recent Miami radar loop seems to show a more westerly movement now.
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I think she's starting to slow down.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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teesda
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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That satellite loop is amazing. You can see the hurricane try to track NW and then the High over Arkansas starts to intesify and dips pretty hard to the SW. It would be hard to dispute that the High had a definite impact. Hopefully can spare the keys. I will pray for the panhandle.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Well Phil we could certainly have an interesting discussion based on that scenario huh?!?!
Was afraid to mention it but since you brought it up...
Can't remember where..2 days ago maybe...a model showed similiar set up & had her make a sharp turn back east...dismissed it as crazy...right.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Most recent Miami radar loop seems to show a more westerly movement now.
It seems so, but if you zoom in close, and stick with the SE rim of the convection, not go by where it is opening up to the NW, the movement is still SW. I saw that and thought...let's wait another 20 min and see.
11p discussion ought to be interesting!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:50 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Thankfully, the solutions from yesterday were too far south with the position of the system, because the SW motion predicted by that model has materialized. If it had stayed offshore longer and been further south, we might have an unexpected major hurricane going through the Keys right now, which would have been a disaster.
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Guitarman
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
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Quote:
i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...
In what direction would the shift be in your opinion? To the west, like maybe around Destin/Panama City Beach?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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i learned a long time ago that while the models are great as guides...they ain't worth jack when storms decide to follow climatology...
wv loops are amazing aren't they?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hmm..that is very interesting. Did you also notice the clouds in the mid-Atlantic are almost being pulled directly to the NE? Check out the area near VA/TN/SC/NC etc. then look due east.
Sheesh...what a mess.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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LI Phil,
After looking at that link, I think there may be something to the idea of that high up north pushing this system south...it sure looks that that is happening. I have been looking at the satellites, radar, and other data and it appears that is testing the models and the mets...I am thinking we may see her turn suddenly north sooner than expected also...maybe 6 to 12 hour...20 at the outside...but that is just based on the some of the things I see at this time...but this is 2005 and anything is now possible.....
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
Edited by firestar_1 (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:55 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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good eye Margie... I think it might be more of a wobble to the west but tracking the se section of the overall eye feature and it still looks wsw to sw.... and Joe B is right its moving more than 6 mph.. the center of the eye is only 26 miles away from the GOM and if it is moving say at ~ 8 - 10 mph it will start entering the GOM between 1 and 2 am CDT... I post this about two hours or so ago, this is well ahead of the predicted forecast by the ... only thing that could screw it up is if it slows down...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Quote:
i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...
In what direction would the shift be in your opinion? To the west, like maybe around Destin/Panama City Beach?
i'm sorry...yes...to the west...i'm no where ready to make any calls on the second landfall...but a cat III somewhere from PCB west to the bama/missip border wouldn't surprise me...god i hope i'm wrong about that 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You know, they showed those models on the spaghetti plot --- I think there were 3 of them -- bringing it further south then crossing the state near West Central/North Central Florida with a sharp east turn. I saw that 3 times on different tv stations and they were pretty much dismissed.
We shall see....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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off the subject but now do we think the animals were right about this season? its starting too make sense now. 
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
LI Phil,
After looking at that link, I think there my be something to the idea of that high up north pushing this system south...it sure looks that that is happening. I have been looking at the satellites, radar, and other data and it appears that is testing the models and the mets...I am thinking we may see her turn suddenly north sooner than expected also...maybe 6 to 12 hour...20 at the outside...but that is just based on the some of the things I see at this time...but this is 2005 and anything is now possible.....
Well none of the models show that nor the so what do you see (link) that shows a reason on it going north soon and no later then 24 hours?
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hate to say it again, but I'll repeat it. The models beyond 36 hours now are junk. We're in real time here, and she's gonna bomb tomorrow. That convection that's been feeding into her from the SW is ultimately going to expand her as she strengthens. And what you said Scott, might be correct. I know what you're thinking. Stay tuned. 
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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11pm is out and the path is about the same maybe a little more west yet again so where is this north turn you guys see that they don't?
Heck the west coast is about out of the cone! hmmmm guess they dont see any chance of a ne turn now do they.
Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:58 PM)
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