Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I heard a newscaster this morning on the tv that there might be a chance that it will turn North sooner and we could be dealing with a Charlie. Could that be true? I just don't see it yet. Any info would help. 
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Their also did pretty good with Jeanne taking her more inland before she ever turned...it was Steve on the radio...cable out & this site before power out that got me thru her.
Am I saying they have pegged? Not yet...don't think anyone does yet...but they did perform decent last year.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Link to Image
Edited by MikeC (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:45 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Their also did pretty good with Jeanne taking her more inland before she ever turned...it was Steve on the radio...cable out & this site before power out that got me thru her.
Am I saying they have pegged? Not yet...don't think anyone does yet...but they did perform decent last year.
they also missed a few by a wide margin i like they were like 40% which is average.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Updated update is in
www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
Look at the gusts...120mph! is unreal.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.
The current track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.
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Jason Kelley
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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Would anyone be suprised if this was up to cat 3 by the end of the day?
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Are there any links to ?
here is one in Orlando - http://www.local6.com/weather/index.html
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You're just jealous because you can't hear the voices...
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:02 PM)
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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no links to but im surte they will show in about 18 mins on news channel 8 in tampa
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I remember Steve Jerve last year being on the air for almost 2 days with and Jeanne...and the model pretty much nailed the forecast. If I remember correctly, earlier this week had it coming south of Ft. Lauderdale ... which is exactly what it did.
I'll be interested to see what the model shows in the next few minutes, if they show it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Still looks to be going slightly south though from the national weather service loop...
Quote:
We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.
The current track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Good morning - now a Cat 2 according to the special update 13, and no surprise after watching her last night.
Also the entire N GOM at risk for possible landfall now.
Paraphrasing Phil (and Bette): fasten your seat belts; it's going to be a bumpy weekend!
Question: are we going to be looking at deepening possibly all day?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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NHC Special Discussion 13
mention potential of borderline Cat 4
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Unfortunatly they didn't animate it...just stuck with the "facts"...maybe Jerve will have an opinion tonight. Their afternoon met did mention though that she's already surprised us once.
There doesn't appear to be a link on their site for it.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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i can't recall ever hearing them give an intensity forecast to a possible 4....
did ya check the SST's in the GOM?
it's August, ya know.....
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:57 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Has views of the models as well as lots of sat of the just plat around.I saw the 06Z at the Navy's site.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
Edited by javlin (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:54 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The latest WV does show a short wave trough now over NW GA down to So. Mississippi... don't know if this is strong enough to pull this north ..the Radar is more due west now than south of due west, although the visible suggests the LLC may have dropped below 25N...
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doug
Edited by doug (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:59 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I believe that at this point it is still moving almost due West, but it seems to be dropping to the south every now and then. I wonder if this is because it is trying to reform it's eye. Any thought?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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from the ....
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
7x24=168 miles further west before it starts trying to go north....
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
i can't recall ever hearing them give an intensity forecast to a possible 4....did ya check the SST's in the GOM?
I know; that, and the very very warm SSTs, the very very low shear. It's kind of spooky, watching it happen in what for us is slow motion, against the bustle of preparation.
I'm trying to just accept it and not get torqued up about it. That won't help the board, and no one can accurately predict the exact point of landfall this far out; those on the N GOM can only spend the weekend preparing. I'm just reminding myself today that while this event is on the end of the distribution, it is normal; normal for August, normal for the current conditions. No butterflies; I'll just take a seat and watch, with the facination that holds us all when this happens.
Remember that perfect day that Emily had as a Cat 4 riding through the Carribean, skirting with Cat 5 intensity off and on during the day? It was beautiful to watch because there wasn't anything in her way that day. I watched her all day. It's hard to reconcile that facination that we can't help for nature, with the concern we have when such a storm may possibly soon be in the GOM, but we have to do it and in a way that we don't unduly alarm anyone who might be looking here for some advice.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:20 PM)
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