hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Where is the current trough located in the u.s right know that might make this system turn more to the N/E.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow in last 30mins there has been another BIG flare up of convection over the center....looks like she is still getting stronger.... here's my latest radar pic... br titl 1 ....also RSO is on ....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
Where is the current trough located in the u.s right know that might make this system turn more to the N/E.
I want to know this too since I am still learning.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Bingo. She did it. Eye (smaller) is now visible on sat as well, and eyewall looking almost complete.
I have seen this while watching and learning this year and should have known what was going on. She sloughed off some outer stuff around the western edge, consolidated and shrunk just a tiny bit, and now is getting there towards that symmetrical shape. It was deepening and I didn't see it. I had thought she was starting to get more disorganized; it looked that way to me up until just about 17:45Z on the sat images.
Edit - wrong. Well, I spoke too soon. Boy that moisture just cannot make it around to the N.
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:35 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Lawgator, you make an interesting point. They tend to hold their cards tight, given the potential devastation that this Could bring. And on the other note, we tend to be concerned about our own backyard, but that's human nature. That said, blah,blah,blah east/ne LOL! She's really cranking now though, and where she ends up we don't exactly know. Had a guy working on a proposal here who has to run up to his house near Eglin, board up, then come back. I don't envy him. Man, things could be a lot worse. Cheers!!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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See my SPECULATION FORECAST
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=50118&page=0&vc=1
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:36 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i didn't think it would get past cat 1 today. it busted that idea about 30 mins after i stated my case. now i'm gonna go for it not getting past cat 2 for the next 12 hrs, because there's a pretty sizeable area of dry mid-level air diving down from the north, which should erode the convection and keep very lopsided, with most of the storm remaining on the se side. the intake of dry air should slacken up to modest and weak by late tomorrow/sunday... that's when i think the storm will strengthen significantly. gonna stick with the cat 3 idea for now because cat 4s tend to spin down before hitting.. but the conditions are obviously there for to get a great deal stronger.
caught a few joe b comments this morning.. he mentioned that the pressure could bottom out around 910mb by his reckoning. if the favorable outflow environment, slight baroclinic kick, and 87-88F waters are any indication, that isn't outside of the realm of possibility. better root for the dry air to keep piling into the storm.
gonna keep the impact point around bay/gulf counties for now, monday morning.
away east 97L finally has a co-located center and deep convection, but the cyclonic flow around it is now broad, and it's still in a sheared/subsidence rich environment. it should break through that shearing trough in the next day or two.. and spin up depending on what it has left.
southeast of there is another cyclonic turning/low pressure area.. with isolated to scattered convection. it also has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days. probably an invest tomorrow.
HF 1901z26august
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
southeast of there is another cyclonic turning/low pressure area.. with isolated to scattered convection. it also has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days. probably an invest tomorrow.
HF 1901z26august
Actually Hank, it's already an invest. First model run on that system: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
Looks like at least a possible threat to the islands next week.
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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has anyone gotten any information from the keys they sure look to be gettin pounded for hours on end .. geeez.. and it seem in the last couple of radar frames out of key west it hasnt move much @ all ... http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 261720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/17:02:50Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
082 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2853 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 250 deg 073 kt
G. 149 deg 009 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 16 C/ 3057 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E15/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A OB 18
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 16:01:40 Z
EYE WALL OPEN AT 10,000FT IN NW, CLOSED AT SURFACE
this was earlier and kinda interesting......there is now new convection near center and will be interesting to see what the winds do next... i think the pane AF304 is nearing her flight time and i don't think will get another vortex drop from for a little while, unless a NOAA P-3 is out there now .... i am not sure... and to reference the eye feature.... i don't think there is an eye just yet visible on sats...just new convection near center.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Can someone give me a clue in on 90L invest and 97L invest.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Recon just had a measurement of 108 and 105 mph winds in the northeast quad. That is the highest finding iso far of their flights today. Pressure now at 968mb.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:14 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I noticed that dry air earlier and asked if that was what was eroding the NW development. Looks like one step forward, one step back. Short time ago she finally got the nice smaller eyewall going (radar at 18:53Z), and just as quickly, it came and went (radar 19:10Z).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:15 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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opps! guess we will
URNT12 KNHC 261909
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/18:48:20Z
B. 24 deg 48 min N
082 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2834 m
D. 45 kt
E. 225 deg 033 nm
F. 313 deg 083 kt
G. 232 deg 011 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 11 C/ 3060 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E05/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1012A OB 23
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z\
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:31 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think if I remember Margie the swung out to the left at the last couple of runs while the others were still in and around FL(Dennis).The finally went back to FL.What I am looking for is some consistency of the patterns they have been flip floping thus far with .The Glolbals being the dynamic models and starting to come together does say a little of something.Just have to see if the upcoming runs are the same.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well she is putting up the good fight, isn't she? Pressure and temp diff incrementally inproving with each vortex msg.
Summarizing comparisons from the three vortex msg:
15:56Z / 17:02Z/ 18:48Z
Pressure 971mb / 969mb / 968mb,
temp gradient 5deg / 7deg / 8deg,
max fl wind 83kt / 87kt / 83kt all in SE quad
Ok so what we're seeing is the mix of two opposites at work: deepening, combined with weakening from infusions of dry air from the NNW, holding her own.
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 03:31 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
What I am looking for is some consistency of the patterns they have been flip floping thus far with .
And what I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if they kept flip flopping. Model guidance had clustered on the FL panhandle; now it is evenly dist along the N Gulf Coast. Expect that to keep changing.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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I was wondering the same thing. I don't think they were prepared to get a pounding like they are getting.
Liz
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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We just got a flyer from management here in Orlando about 2 more developing issues in the ATL - - any thought from the mets on site - - also - are there any indications of a strong NE shift for this weekend - - ie. south Big Bend area?? :?:
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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from the key west radar it lokks like it hasnt even moved ..?? and any mets if you're around where is the front that is going to push old kat north then east @ this time .. ?
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