Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous
Why does the do this....keep it as a Cat 4 but hint at the two models pointing to a 5? Instead of erring on the conservative side for loss of life, just come out and predict a Cat 5 to get everyone and their brother out of LA/MS/AL. If it hits as a 3 or 4 then everyone's happy anyway.
It's call mass PANIC. If a Cat 5 is predicted to hit Greater New Orleans without sufficient time to evacuate the people, mass hysteria is likely to result. As it is, mass hysteria is only a 75-95% probability.
For what it is worth, I still don't have much faith in the forecast.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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most likely 1 word (panic) cat 4 or 5 people are going to go esp when they say maybe a 5.
I know if it were here and they said 4 or 5 it would not matter i would be gone.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:11 PM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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open up the floodgates, the coast will drive north in record numbers this weekend. Jim Cantore is in the air tonight headed for biloxi, guarantee it.
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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how far inland does a 5 do damage?
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Maybe here is why ... Camille
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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[Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
There is now way on Earth that ALL of the Casinos could be moved into Back Bay at Biloxi before Monday Morning. That plan was good when it was designed, in part by the late Wade Guice. There are too many Casinos in place. Not enough room for all of them.
A CAT 4 going ashore west of Gulfport would probably wipe out 50 % of them. I may be a little low on that estimate.
FrankP, you look at them every day. What's your take on moving them all?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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how far inland does a 5 do damage?
In Louisiana? It would likely wipe out much of the coast of Arkansas.
Before someone points out that Arkansas is not ON the coast, that's my point: it probably would be after the storm went through.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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they just put that new track on TV here in New Orleans and I could feel the thud come down over the city. The newscaster (Mike Hoss) said it right when he said DRAMATIC CHANGES in the last 12 hours.
I don't follow that one. The official track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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Looks like this one is looking a lot worse than was when it was in the Gulf.
Edited by bn765 (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:17 PM)
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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NHC is not in the business of scare tactics. they call 'em as they see 'em. As we are all aware they are well informed with access to the most current data and model runs. Nevertheless, we see time and again that intensity estimates are difficult. with this one now the change in track and general conditions in the gulf all predict intensification. so folks, it's gonna be a major hurricane -- and we wait and watch
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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hugh,
that's priceless. so in jxn, ms?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
[Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
There is now way on Earth that ALL of the Casinos could be moved into Back Bay at Biloxi before Monday Morning. That plan was good when it was designed, in part by the late Wade Guice. There are too many Casinos in place. Not enough room for all of them.
A CAT 4 going ashore west of Gulfport would probably wipe out 50 % of them. I may be a little low on that estimate.
FrankP, you look at them every day. What's your take on moving them all?
Only two or three of them would need to be moved. The Grands, Beau, Isle and Magic are built to withstand a Cat 4-5 storm in place, I read once. They are actually designed to withstand up to 180 mph gusts I think. Now, the smaller casinos like the former President... well, it was moving to Waveland in October - they will just have to rebuild it from scratch instead of what they had planned. Treasure Bay was damaged by every recent storm, though - it would be a goner for sure.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
hugh,
that's priceless. so in jxn, ms?
If a storm was still Cat 5 there... I would be very afraid!!!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I don't follow that one. The official track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
Yeah, the eye misses NO, but the storm surge and strongest winds don't. NOs sits below sealevel. The dikes can't hold back the kind of surge and storm driven waves they are talking about. I believe when they were talking about last year, the worst path for a storm to take, pertaining to NOs, was just to its east.
--RC
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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looks like we'll find out if those test and "made to sustain" hold up. I seriously doubt a strong 4 or 5 would leave a casion floating south of monroe.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far. However flooding can be more of an issue, as the storm surge combined with waves on the east of the eye can drive water quite a ways.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:24 PM)
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kissy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
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I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
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Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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With Andrew, the zone of maxinum devistation was caused by massed imbedded tornados on the eyewall. That was the area of total destruction, but you don't even see that in all Category 5 systems.
--RC
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
It was originally predicted to happen about six hours ago, or so. Now, it might NEVER happen.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Well acoring the local TV here in Tampa they are going to report on the storm every 30 mins starting at 5am and that is here in Tampa so theyb are taking it serious here and we are not in the cone.Guess its saturday and they are doing it for ratings but still they are doing it.
(off topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:46 PM)
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